SeanM's Season Long MLB Thread

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I would just like to preface this by saying there are a tremendous amount of great cappers on this site and it is continuously great that we can all discuss and share our game opinions for FREE and all help each other make money. I wish everyone the best of luck this season and hope we can all finish profitably when all said and done.

I don't expect anyone to follow my picks and I can't blame anyone at all. I'm unproven in baseball (dabbled in bball - didn't do so hot. Dabbled some in college foots and NFL last season - rarely posted own threads.). This will be more of a tool for myself to just see where I'm at and to keep track of what I'm doing. And when I start getting cold, this will be a great fade thread for everyone else:lol:

I believe I do things differently than most cappers. I'm a simple bettor. While I do put in the time, effort, and research for the games I follow, I stay away from systems and number crunching. I respect the absolute hell out of the guys who run those but I just can't do it. I've also come to the conclusion that when I start messing with all that stuff, I overthink everything. I'm a pretty nuts & bolts capper. I've also completely done away with all that sharp/public crap. While I admit I've seen it as a reliable tool, it is another factor leads to my overthinking. It also killed be in March Madness, when paying too much attention it.

All baseball plays will be 1 unit and I'm hoping to play no favorites, ever, over 150-170. I, like most, love to find value in dogs but I can't bet a team JUST for value. If an underdog is at +180 but every thing I've done and researched pointing to them losing, I'll simply pass on it. Great value, sure, but I can't just bet the team and hope to get lucky.

This will be my split for record keeping:

Total YTD: (0-0-0%) +/- Units
Sides:
Totals:
American League:
National League:
Phildelphia:

I will be doing just about every Phillies game this season as they are my team and obviously feel I know them better than I know any other.

BOL to everyone this year!<><>

Oh, and I run through a local but I'd say 95% of his lines are Bodog. If different, I'll post what he's giving me and what Bodog has.
 

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4/4 Opening Night

Philadelphia Phillies -134




I personally am one of the believers in Brett Myers for the 2009 season. He was a completely different animal 2H last season, posting a 3.06 ERA post-All Star and 3.6:1 K:BB ratio. Also, including the first half, despite every trouble under the sun, Myers was a beast at home all year. He put up a 3.01 home ERA. He's also had a solid, while quiet, Spring with a 3.52 ERA. All signs point to this being his most motivated season and he is also thinner (losing 25 lbs) and in his best baseball shape.

Myers has shown in the past he can be an Ace and I truly think this is the season he puts it all together. It doesn't hurt him, either, that this is a contract year.

Philly has also been absolutely smashing the ball this spring, with new addition Raul Ibanez looking extremely solid, and Jayson Werth fully taking advantage of being an everyday start. What is most impressive about this Fighting Phils team, is everyone 1-5 can rake 25+ HRs & bat .275+. I also think Howard goes back to MVP form.

Lowe will no doubt put out a great effort tonight but if the Phillies can score some runs early, and Myers can get off to a good start (9.30 ERA in 1st inning - 2008), the Braves still lack the needed pop to play catch-up. Chipper & McCann can stroke with the best of them, and I'm very intrigued by new CF Jordan Schafer, but this is still a very young Atlanta line-up.

I'll also back the emotion and better bullpen.

BOL tonight!
 

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Well, Derek Lowe shined and Brett Myers reverted to pre-All Star 2008. I expect Myers to be able to right the ship, but he's always been pretty bad in the first 2 innings and early on in the year. Atlanta looked great. Not happy about that.

Will update records after tomorrow's games.

Monday 4/6

Washington +145
Los Angeles D +115
Oakland +135
Detroit +135

BOL to all tomorrow(<)<(<)<
 

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Adding for Monday 4/6

Oakland/Los Angels o8.5 -105

Reports of "dead arm" for Saunders and two extremely potent line-ups. I believe both teams hit 5 runs in this one.
 

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Total YTD: (2-5-29%) -3.24 Units
Sides: 1-4
Totals: 1-1
American League: 0-3
National League: 2-2
Phildelphia: 0-1

---------------------------

Not a great way to start the season but thankfully it's a long road ahead of us! After watching the slew of games yesterday, there are a few things that stood out and here's hoping those can be used in our favor. BOL to all today!

Tuesday 4/7

Kansas City +115
Milwaukee/San Francisco u7 -105
Detroit/Toronto u9.5 -115
Florida -1.5 +140
Pittsburgh +135
Los Angeles D/San Diego u7.5 -120
Oakland/Los Angeles A u9 -105
 

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Total YTD: (5-9-36%) -3.94 Units
Sides: 2-6
Totals: 3-3
American League: 1-5
National League: 4-4
Phildelphia: 0-1

----------------------------------

Loss less than one total unit on Tuesday and lost both Oak/LAA u & KC in the last two innings. Disheartening way to go down but chalk it up to bad luck! I'm hoping to hit a stride soon so we'll see. As always, BOL to everyone!



Wednesday 4/8

Washington/Florida o9 -120
Atlanta/Philadelphia o9 +105
Toronto -1.5 +145
Boston 1.5 +135
New York M -105
Kansas City/Chicago W u8.5 -105
Pittsburgh/St. Louis o8.5 -115
Los Angeles D -1.5 -115
 

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Wednesday 4/8

Washington/Florida o9 -120 WINNER
Atlanta/Philadelphia o9 +105 WINNER
Toronto -1.5 +145
Boston 1.5 +135
New York M -105
Kansas City/Chicago W u8.5 -105
Pittsburgh/St. Louis o8.5 -115
Los Angeles D -1.5 -115

Not a bad start! BOL to all today!
 

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I bet you were really stressing about covering that Phillies/Braves Over...came right down to the end:):)

Looks like you're turning things around, man GL on the rest
 

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think there's good value in the pirates today...turning up a decent number in the middle of the rotation. of course i'm just a pirates fan, but i think it should be a decent game as long as pujols doesn't make us his bitch again.
 

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Being a WVU student...got a good amount of friends here who are big time Bucko fans. They're on the Cards pretty large.
 

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Being a WVU student...got a good amount of friends here who are big time Bucko fans. They're on the Cards pretty large.

some friends from the burgh? i know a few people that go to WVU also. i just wouldn't put my trust in wellemeyer, the only pirate play would have to be a small one with some good juice on it
 

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Wednesday Recap:

Washington/Florida o9 -120 WINNER
Atlanta/Philadelphia o9 +105 WINNER
Toronto -1.5 +145 LOSER
Boston 1.5 +135 LOSER
New York M -105 WINNER
Kansas City/Chicago W u8.5 -105 WINNER
Pittsburgh/St. Louis o8.5 -115 WINNER
Los Angeles D -1.5 -115 WINNER

6-2 +4.05 units @):)

-------------------------------------------

Total YTD: (11-11-50%) +0.11 Units
Sides: 4-8
Totals: 7-3
American League: 2-7
National League: 9-4
Phildelphia: 0-1

-------------------------------------------


Thursday 4/9

New York M/Cincinnati o9 -125
St. Louis -1.5 +105
Detroit -110
Tampa Bay +140
Tampa Bay/Boston u8.5 -120
New York Y -1.5 -120
Los Angeles D/San Diego u8 -120

BOL today to everyone:toast:
 

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Thursday Recap:

New York M/Cincinnati o9 -125 WINNER
St. Louis -1.5 +105 LOSER
Detroit -110 LOSER
Tampa Bay +140 WINNER
Tampa Bay/Boston u8.5 -120 WINNER
New York Y -1.5 -120 WINNER
Los Angeles D/San Diego u8 -120 WINNER

5-2 +4.30 Units
 

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