Samsung 500 (@Texas)

CUP YTD

22-13 +09.96 units (Match-Ups)
12-05 +13.82 units (Props)
04-16 +06.69 units (Outrights)

YTD Total: +30.47 units

Match-Ups

2.00 units Jeff Burton (-115) over Mark Martin (thegreek)
Love Burton at this track, always seems to be sneaky good, really don't hear much about him until the end of the race(which is his MO in every race). Has a 11.6 avg last 6 here (that includes a 38th in 2006 but also a win in 2007). Decent starting spot at 15th, and two good practices Saturday 10th and 6th. May have a Top 5 shot, at the very least Top 10.
Not sure where Martin is right now, was fast In Happy Hour but has struggled a little most of the weekend. The 5 team is coming off back-to-back Top 10's which is a cause for concern, but just have a feeling that 10th-12th will be at best for them today.

2.00 units Martin Truex (+120) over David Stremme (@5dimes)
Surprised to see this line. Have had my eye on Truex all week, has only one finish outside the Top 15 in 7 career starts at Texas(4 Top 10's). Was 10th in Happy Hour Saturday. Stremme has done a decent job for Penske taking over for Ryan Newman, but really like Truex to beat him out today.

2.00 units Matt Kenseth (-120) over Greg Biffle (@5dimes)
This is Kenseth 4th best track (statistically) with a 10.1 avg. in 13 races, only finished outside the Top 10 once in 7 races (and that was a 12th place finish). Qualified 3rd for the race and normally when Kenseth qualifies well (something he is not known for) he is a threat.
With Biffle you never really know what you've got. You would think this would be a great track for him because he does so well at places like Kansas and Chicago, but its been a mixed bag, in 10 starts he has 3 Top 10's(including a win in 2005 but he also has 6 finishes of 28th or worse.

1.5 units Kyle Busch (-115) over Jimmie Johnson (@5dimes)
Kyle expressed his disappointment this weekend about his inability to yet win here, even though he has 4 Top 6 finishes in the last 5 races and has dominated the Nationwide Series. I sense a quiet determination from him this weekend and a 24th place finish at Martinsville just adds to it.
Johnson is the clear favorite going in but my money is on the 18 this week.

1.00 unit Jeff Gordon (+150) over Jimmie Johnson (@thegreek)
This is more or less a value play, even though I think Gordon is Top 5 or better.

Props

2.00 units Jeff Gordon (-105) under 7.5 (@5dimes)
Hasn't finished over this number since Daytona and has finished 7th or better in 3 of the last 4 at Texas

1.5 units Clint Bowyer (-135) under 16.5 (@5dimes)
They're killing me on this price, but even though the Bowyer hasn't been overwhelming in qualifying or practice I'm thinking he gets to the Top 15.

Outrights

1.00 unit Kyle Busch (+500) @5dimes
0.50 unit Jeff Gordon (+900) @thegreek
0.50 unit Matt Kenseth (+1000) @thegreek
0.25 unit Jeff Burton (+3500) @thegreek

Good luck to everyone.

good luck maxx

:toast:

thanks desi...gl2u2

gl with burton, lets get that CAT car in victory lane

that sounds good to me ATP

Maxx - Matt Kenseth is +1500 at caribsports

How are you thinking Jimmy Johnson's day goes today? I see you don't have a lot of love for him today.

sorry stomie, CLefty....didn't see your posts until now

stomie appreciate the info about carib, been looking for a 3rd book, will keep an eye on them

CLefty, thought JJ would have his normal day, top 5 and a threat to win. Just thought Kyle would come out smokin', and would have probably been near the front pack if not for his temper getting him in trouble (again! I thought he was improving on that). Couldn't turn down that price with Gordon knowing he had a chance for the win as well.

As for Sunday.... the match-ups killed me going 1-4, 1-1 on props and did hit the race winner, but all-in-all finished down 4.2 units for my first losing day of the year, I guess it had to come sometime, ready to get to Phoenix in 2 weeks.