After playing this sport for over 20 years in high school and college, going to pro tryouts , friends who play in the minors and majors, I like to say I have a pretty good opinion on this game. Yes, you cant predict unforeseen occurs such as umpires missing calls, errors, etc. But early on in the season a lot of these games are going to be turned over to the bullpen with starters on a close pitch count. After looking over countless stats with ERA, WHIP and so on, tonights game is going to come down to the middle relievers.
Lets put this into perspective:
Citizens Bank Park is a BAM BOX for pitchers
The hitters are more developed than pitchers at this early in the season, due to the small pitch counts in spring training and in the WBC
Weather plays a role with run lines
For Tonight:
Personally I like the Over in this game
Reasons:
1.) Derek Lowe if he doesn't have command on his sinker ball and it is left up, he's going to be hit around, this is his out pitch. We saw last year in the playoffs what the Phillies did with a hanging sinker, 2hr's
2.) Brett Myers, I'm sorry but this guy is trash, everyone is saying he's going to do a complete 360 from his start at last season, he was hit around also in game 2 of the NLDS, I plan for the exact same as last fall. The ball will be put in play, also his control will not be there this early, a lot of walks
3.) Both managers will be putting runners in motion with the speed at the top of the lineup, holes will be open for runners to move from 1st to 3rd
4.) Citizens bank park is a hitters park
5.) The wind will be coming out of the southwest, I may be wrong but with Philly that should be blowing out, and its going to be a nice night for balls to be flying out of the ball park with a 60 degree temperature
The only thing I don't like about playing overs in a NL game is the pitcher batting in the 9 hole, Innings 1-6 you have to assume there will be 5-7 outs due to sacrifice bunts and pitchers not being able to swing the stick.
Play for tonight (0-0):
OVER 8.5 Runs (2 unit play)
Lean:
Atlanta +120
My units are based out of $50 dollars. So 1 unit = 50 dollars
Rating system 1-10 units
Not going crazy on Opening Night
BOL
Lets put this into perspective:
Citizens Bank Park is a BAM BOX for pitchers
The hitters are more developed than pitchers at this early in the season, due to the small pitch counts in spring training and in the WBC
Weather plays a role with run lines
For Tonight:
Personally I like the Over in this game
Reasons:
1.) Derek Lowe if he doesn't have command on his sinker ball and it is left up, he's going to be hit around, this is his out pitch. We saw last year in the playoffs what the Phillies did with a hanging sinker, 2hr's
2.) Brett Myers, I'm sorry but this guy is trash, everyone is saying he's going to do a complete 360 from his start at last season, he was hit around also in game 2 of the NLDS, I plan for the exact same as last fall. The ball will be put in play, also his control will not be there this early, a lot of walks
3.) Both managers will be putting runners in motion with the speed at the top of the lineup, holes will be open for runners to move from 1st to 3rd
4.) Citizens bank park is a hitters park
5.) The wind will be coming out of the southwest, I may be wrong but with Philly that should be blowing out, and its going to be a nice night for balls to be flying out of the ball park with a 60 degree temperature
The only thing I don't like about playing overs in a NL game is the pitcher batting in the 9 hole, Innings 1-6 you have to assume there will be 5-7 outs due to sacrifice bunts and pitchers not being able to swing the stick.
Play for tonight (0-0):
OVER 8.5 Runs (2 unit play)
Lean:
Atlanta +120
My units are based out of $50 dollars. So 1 unit = 50 dollars
Rating system 1-10 units
Not going crazy on Opening Night
BOL
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