MistaFlava's MLB Tuesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

The Kansas City Royals are the laughing stock of Major League each and every season but I did see some improvements at the end of 2008 and that has me thinking that this team can be decent this time around. I would not underestimate the Royals as underdogs and let me tell you right now that although they are a few years away from contending, this is a very capable young team that is going to surprise some people. Like I said before, anyone who followed September and October baseball knows how well these guys finished the year. The Royals are 7-0 in their last seven games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and I don't see the value in going against them. The Royals were tremendous on the road at the end of the season winning 8 of their last 9 games and with a much improved roster this season we can only expect much improved results. So in other words they finished the year 7-1 in their last eight games as road underdog and 5-1 against AL Central opponents. I have faith in this underdog that finished the year winning 13 of their last 16 games because that momentum means a lot for 2009. They have their ace Gil Meche who makes his season debut and he is in a comfort zone in Kansas City right now and I think we'll see some much improved numbers from him in 2009. I mean the only time Meche was a complete disaster last season was when he was favored (which was all too many times) and believe it or not Kansas City went 8-2 in his last 10 starts as an underdog so once again there is too much value in the Royals today to pass this up. Meche won 4 of his last 5 starts in 2008 and now is the time to pick things up right where he left off. Upset of the day here.

The Chicago White Sox had a buzz kill yesterday when the home opener was cancelled because of weather and I don't know that it's anymore special today. I mean a lot of the fans who were supposed to be there yesterday probably won't all be around for the game today and I think this is a great spot to fade the White Sox. What I remember from this team last season is that they struggled against pitchers who have good control and pitchers who have a decent WHIP. Meche doesn't have any stats yet this season but I expect him to have a good WHIP this season and the White Sox are only 3-7 in their last 10 games versus a starting pitchers that has a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Not much can be said about Mark Buehrle and how good he has been at home over the years because he has been better than good and he is not usually worth fading in a case like this. He has tremendous career numbers against the Royals both at home and on the road but what you have to know is that he has not faced a Royals lineup like this in his career and I just don't trust his offense to back him with much in this game. Well Buehrle has had a nice career but as he gets older I think it will be tougher for him to handle younger lineups like that of the Royals in this game. Buehrle had a horrendous spring where he went 0-2 in four spring starts with an ERA of 6.50 and a WHIP of 1.67 and I think he is going to struggle against a young Royals lineup that has speed, agility and power. Although his career has been pretty damn good, I expect Buehrle to fade a little bit this season and even if he has another good year, I just don't see him doing all that well in his first few starts. He had a terrible spring and much like Cliff Lee, he will probably have a terrible home opener. Fade Buehrle guys.

Alright so the White Sox have spent season after season whoopping some serious Kansas City ass but when is all that going to change? The Royals have their best lineup in ages right now, the team is very excited coming into the season and my question is...why the hell not? Despite playing so well at the end of last season the Royals have always struggled when playing in Chicago or when hosting the White Sox but again with their ace on the mound this afternoon I think we see some big time changes and it all starts here. Meche started two games in this ballpark last year as a member of the Royals and went 1-1 in those games, winning 9-1 on one occasions in one of his most impressive starts of the season. The Royals actually swept the White Sox in that mini two game series back in July and despite losing every other game in Chicago that season, they come into this season with some serious momentum and that should mean. Buehrle had a horrendous spring, you cannot ignore that and he is not getting any younger which should be a huge concern for anyone taking the White Sox in this game. I am going to go with the Royals (something I blacklisted about two seasons ago) and I think they are going to open some eyes for a good part of this season. Years of building are going to finally payoff and see this team succeed a little bit more than they did last year. With their ace on the mound, it's time to make some cash!

Trend of the Game: Kansas City is 8-2 in Gil Meche's last 10 starts as an underdog.


Kansas City 5, White Sox 3




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The Milwaukee Brewers are going to be a good team this season but this is not the spot to back them. I don't like the idea of backing a mediocre pitcher who is way past his prime, playing on the road in a Western Time Zone against one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. I said this many times last year that Milwaukee will not be a good team until they can start winning games on the road and they are very far from that right now. The Brewers have been a horrendous away team going 28-59 in their last 87 road games as an underdog and one of their biggest problems last season was that they could not win the first game of a series. As a matter of fact the Brewers have won only 2 of their last 9 first games of a series and they have won only 4 of their last 14 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Like I said before, believe me when I say you do not want to bet on Milwaukee away from because they really struggled late in the season going 2-10 in their last 12 road games and I just don't see them beating good pitchers away from home. The Brewers are a complete bust as an underdog going 1-9 in their last 10 games as a dog and with Jeff Suppan on the mound in this game you can keep adding to the problems this team is going to have away from home. Suppan was horrendous at the end of the year in 2008 where the team lost 5 of his last 6 starts and they lost all four of his last four starts as an underdog making them 0-4 when he is a dog. I just don't have faith in these bats this early in the season and I will almost never bet on Milwaukee away from home.

The San Francisco Giants have to be excited about some of the players they have on their squad this season. I mean on the mound this afternoon is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and I just don't see him losing his home opener here. There used to be a time when you could bet on the Giants in this ballpark against a left handed pitcher and make some serious cash but times have changed, players have moved on and the Giants spent the most part of last season pounding away on right handed pitchers at home (which makes it the other way around). As a matter of fact, San Francisco is 9-3 in their last 12 home games versus a right handed starter and they have won 14 of their last 20 games when favored at home. So the right money combination at home for the Giants seems to include a) good starter on the mound, b) opposing right handed starter and c) home game and all three of those apply tonight. I know the Giants have gone through some tough times the last few seasons and they have been underdogs in a bunch of games during that span but when Vegas decides that these guys should be favored, there is usually a very good reason for it. I say that because San Francisco is has won 151 of their last 225 games when made the favorite. Lincecum was the best pitcher in the National League last season and I can tell you right now that he loves pitching in this ballpark. The Giants have won 5 of his last 6 home starts and they have also won 6 of the last 8 games where Lincecum has pitched in Game 1 of a series and they have won 6 of his last 8 games when favored. I know a lot of people are going to take the Giants here but Lincecum is very good and believe me he is worth this price against a Brewers lineup that has sucked on the road for quite some time now.

I know Milwaukee kicked some serious Giants ass the last little while of 2008 and yes the Giants have dropped six straight games to the Brewers, something that makes it a bit scary to back them in this game, but don't be shy. Lincecum will pitch the way Roy Halladay pitched yesterday and he will pitch the way any young pitcher would on opening day (home opener anyways). Having said that, I have a feeling this game could end up high scoring and that would benefit the better starting pitcher and the better overall team which at this point I think is San Francisco considering they are playing at home. Lincecum did lost to the Brewers at home last July but I don't look too much into that game for the simple fact that the Brewers were on fire at that time of the year and now I see them coming out a bit cold for this game. I go back to the 2007 season and look at Lincecum's shutout in Milwaukee on July 21 of that year and then I look at his August 26, 2007 home start against the Brewers where he won 5-4 with some help from the bullpen. All in all, the Giants are going to be pumped for the start of the new season and for the start of their ace pitcher here. They have been very good at home against right handed starters and this time they get to face a very vulnerable Jeff Suppan that will probably get lit up quite a few times early on in the season. We saw it with some of the other older pitchers in the league and I don't see why it would be different with Suppan on the mound. I am going with the home team here.

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 5-1 in Tim Lincecum's last six home starts.


San Francisco 9, Milwaukee 2




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