Topspinelite's 2009 MLB thread

topspinelite · Apr 8, 2009

I been doing some research on baseball. Came up with some cool stuff...Sabrmetrics, statistical analysis etc.

I am picking games based on line value, using Log 5 win %, and team win % from Pecota projections.

Time to put my ideas to the test and see if i can win consistently. I will post my plays here every day and keep track of the season.

Season Record (0-0) 0 units

Wednesday April, 8 Plays
1 Unit each (matchbook)
Cubs -134
Det +125
Tbay +140
Cle -110

From my models the lines should be
Cubs -170 +.3 value
Det -105 +.25
TB +100 +.4
CLE -150 +.4

topspinelite · Apr 9, 2009

Season (3-1) +2.50
Yesterday (3-1) +2.50

Plays for Thursday April 9

Dodgers -140
Tampa +140
CWS -150
LAA -120

STL -1.5 +109

ThePig+ · Apr 9, 2009

what should the lines be today according to your models?

topspinelite · Apr 10, 2009

Hey Pig sorry I didn't get to post those EV things.

Picks for Friday 4/10
Yesterday (1-3) -2.5u
Season (5-4) +1.00

Angels yesterday was no game. RIP Nick Adenhart.
My posted record is (4-4) +0.00 but on 4/8 I took stl -150 and won. For consistency sake of my record keeping im going to put my season record including that 1 unposted play.

All for 1 unit. My line and +EV in parenthesis

Cubs -145 (-200 +.55)
PHI -132 (-165 +.32)
NYM -114 (-160 +.45)
WAS +190 (+127 +.63)
MIN +140 (+113 +.32)

Got some good value for the plays on Friday.
Cubs line is off, Rich Harden is amazing if he can return to old form. Right now he is healthy and he has some good stuff.

Philadelphia and the Mets are superior teams vs their opponents and also bring superior SP compared to their opponents

topspinelite · Apr 11, 2009

Didn't do so well yesterday. This system is still in testing, and is still not perfect. so i'm keeping the bets small for now.

Yesterday (1-4) -3.51u
Season (6-8) -2.51u

Plays for April 11 - My lines in ( )
All 1 unit

Cin -123 (-160)
STL -125 (-175)
WAS +155 (+135)
ARI +108 (-140)
SD -142 (-205)
CLE +114 (-150)
OAK -103 (-140)
LAA +120 (-110)
Bal -103 (-140)
CLE +114
OAK -103
LAA +120
BAL -103

Gluck all

Topspinelite's 2009 MLB thread

Search

topspinelite

New member

topspinelite

New member

ThePig+

I've come to put my house in order

topspinelite

New member

topspinelite

New member

Forum statistics

Share this page