MistaFlava's MLB Wednesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

The Washington Nationals are not a good baseball team and a lot of people are going to go against them in this game today but having said that they are not going to lose every game they play this season and this is probably a good spot to back them. It's not often there is anything good to talk about when it comes to Washington and their baseball team because this team has done nothing but lose since they got here and a lot of experts are saying that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the near future anyways. Daniel Cabrera is on the mound for Washington today and strangely enough he has been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball the last few seasons. I have a feeling though that the National League might actually do this guy some good. The Nationals have not won many games in this ballpark but what you have to know about these guys is that the games that they did lose here in 2008 were close games. Washington played 9 games in Florida last season and out of those games, only 1 was lost by more than 2 runs. I know things have not looked good for this team in the opening two games (both losses) of this season but their hitting is not that bad. It's their pitching that needs to improve and if Cabrera can avoid walks and if he can be on his game, I think the Nationals offense will find a way to score runs in this game and that is all they really need...a good pitching outing (the team has an ERA of 10.69 right now after two games). The Nationals have an advantage against a right handed pitcher here because I don't see them winning many games when having to face a lefty. Wins in Florida are rare for this team but with a somewhat even pitching matchup in place, I like the Nationals to win their first game of the season.

The Florida Marlins look to have a pretty damn good team put together but the question mark with these guys all season is going to be pitching and I don't know if their young arms can hold long enough to make the playoffs. Having said that, make no mistake about it this is a good young team that can do some serious damage against opposing pitchers. There is not much bad to say about the Marlins and again that is probably why so many people are backing them in this game this afternoon. Having said that, Christopher Volstad is on the mound this afternoon and he is a big part of the future for this team. Volstad has started only 14 games in the Majors and he has six wins in those games but there is something not right about the line for this game today. It's not often that Volstad has shown his stuff in afternoon games because the Marlins don't usually play in the afternoon heat but he does have 5 career starts during the day and despite pitching well enough to win those games, his WHIP is 1.52 lifetime when pitching during the day and the Nationals are very capable of getting guys on base and they do have a few guys who can hit home runs. I have also noticed that if you are going to go against Volstad you might as well do it at home where he is 2-3 in eight career starts and has allowed 19 ER's in those starts, compared to only 8 ER's in only six career road starts. I think this is a very good opportunity to go against Volstad here and the oddsmakers obviously know something we don't about the way he pitches at home and the way he pitches during the daytime. The Marlins bullpen has been bad in the opening two games where they have an ERA of 6.50 and the Nationals are going to score enough runs off this pen and off Volstad to win the game. I expect this to be an upset...watch it happen. Good spot to fade Volstad, specailly if Daniel Cabrera can get hot in this game.

The public is pounding away on Florida and with this being an early daytime game that is being watched and bet on by most people who are at home or at work right now, I have to lean with the underdog. Vegas is not stupid and with two question marks on the mound today, this is really anybody's ball game. I do give the edge to the Nationals as long as their bullpen can hang on in this game. CB Bucknor is the home plate umpire this afternoon and although he is a big time homer umpire and there are a lot of trends to prove that...Bucknor seems to have an issue with the Florida Marlins. I say that because even though the home team is 7-1 in Bucknor's last eight games behind the plate, the Marlins are only 1-4 the last five times he has been behind the plate in one of their games and the road team is 8-3 when Bucknor is behind the plate for a Marlins game. There are no stats to back me up on a Washington play in this game because the Marlins have dominated Washington at home the last few seasons and the Nationals are just a bad team in general. Having said that, Volstad is vulnerable at home and is vulnerable in daytime starts. If this turns into a high scoring game with both starting pitchers going out early (very possible), the Nationals have the better bullpen for now (as seen in the first two games) and that should be the deciding factor. Florida's bullpen will lose this game.

Trend of the Game: Florida is 1-4 in their last five games with CB Bucknor behind home plate.


Washington 6, Florida 4




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The Atlanta Braves were pegged as possible darkhorse contenders in the National League this season because of their powerful hitting lineup and some of the young arms in their rotation but nobody really believed it. Well now you better believe it because the Braves have opened the season with two straight road wins and both have been against the defending World Champions (I have been against them both times too). However, winning two games is one thing but winning the first three is another and I just don't see it happening even though they will probably give it a good go in this game. It's not secret that the Braves have a lot of power in their lineup so if opponents are struggling at the plate they are going to find it tough to come from behind against these guys and that has been the case in the first two games of this series. We also know that the Braves to love face right handed starters and that they done quite well against righties but the two pitchers they have faced so far this season were both in the late stages of their careers and things are a bit different in this game. On the mound for the Braves tonight is Javier Vazquez who makes his return to the National League in this game and he might actually do well here. However, Vazquez struggled big time at the end of 2008 and I think those struggles might follow him into the 2009 season seeing how he is aging and pitchers who are getting older have been horrendous early on in the 2009 season. I know Vazquez was decent in his time with the White Sox but did you guys know that he went 5-9 on the road last season with an ERA of 5.10 and a WHIP of 1.50 while opponents batted .295 against him. The Phillies bats are hungry, they have been completely silent in this series and I think they need an afternoon game against this type of pitcher to wake them up. Atlanta is playing some good baseball right now and their bats are on fire early in the season but I don't know if they can keep it up because please keep in mind that this team really struggled on the road last season and there is a chance we see that happen again sometime sooner rather than later. The Braves have now won four straight in Philadelphia and I would be shocked if they made that five straight. I am going to fade them once again in a bit of a chase play tonight.

The Philadelphia Phillies have cost a lot of us some serious cash early on this baseball season because they have been heavily backed by the public in both their first games against Atlanta at home to open their title defense season and they have been a complete bust in both those games. So you may argue that they are not worth chasing around for a third time in four days with the possibility of once again losing but I think there is a lot of value in this play. The Phillies have been asleep at the plate the entire series and now they finally get to face a pitcher who is venturing into new waters with a new team and as previously mentioned, Javier Vazquez is not a good road pitcher and the Phillies might take the opportunity to feast on that in this game. You have to keep in mind that despite the two losses to the Braves, the Phillies have won 20 of their last 26 games versus right handed starters and despite those losses they have still won 25 of their last 33 home games which makes them a value play here at these odds with a chance to avoid three in a row to start the season. It's also important to know that Philadelphia is 8-3 in their last 11 games where they are coming off loses in the first two games of a series and the Phillies are still one of the best teams in Major League Baseball with one of the best lineups. Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers are old and aging and both sucked in the first two games. Joe Blanton on the other hand might give up some runs here but Philadelphia is 7-0 in Blanton's last seven starts, they are 6-0 in Blanton's last six home starts and they are 6-1 in his last seven starts versus National League East opponents. In other words the Phillies win games when Blanton is on the mound and that is just what they need right now heading into a very important game that they do not want to lose. Not only do they win at home but they also win when favored and they win against NL East opponents which is all you could ask for. I am going to make a large play on the Phillies in this game because I really believe that as defending champions they are not about to lose three straight games at home to open the season and I think we see some of the big Phillies bats break right out of the early season closet today. This is a very good spot to back these guys.

Alright so I wouldn't go as far as saying that this game means everything to the Phillies because a loss would still not be the end of the world but the fans are getting a little bit impatient and nobody wants to lose three straight games at home when opening the season on a world championship defense campaign. Tim Timmons is the home plate umpire for this game and the Phillies are 4-0 in the last four games he has been behind the plate. Having said that, the Braves are also 4-0 with Timmons behind the plate in their last four. When umping Atlanta games, it seems Timmons has a preference for home teams as the home team is 6-1 in Tim Timmons last eight games behind home plate in Atlanta games. I think both starting pitchers are going to have their fair share of problems in this game but in the end the Phillies have been winning with Blanton on the mound and Vazquez is making his season debut. I don't think he is ready for this type of game and despite pitching well here in the past, those games were mostly in 2004 and 2005 and the Phillies lineup matches up very well with Vazquez in this spot. A big part of the Phillies winning the championship last year was their run support for a guy like Blanton and now that they need some runs to get their season going, I could not think of a better pitcher to have on the mound to make things better. PHILLIES PLAY OF THE WEEK!

Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 7-0 in Joe Blanton's last seven starts.


Phildelphia 8, Atlanta 5




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That's it for tonight, had a tough day of internet connection and did not post all the picks I wanted to post. Good Luck to everyone tonight and lets make some cash heading into tomorrow.
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