MistaFlava's MLB Thursday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/3-Pack)

The Seattle Mariners knew they would be in tough starting the season on the road in another time zone and tough it has been as they have dropped two of their first three games this season and are on the verge of heading back home with a 1-3 record on the year. In the past the Mariners have had success against left handed starters like Perkins and I actually see this team tagging him for a few early runs in this game but having said that the Mariners are not a team that has made me any kinds of money in recent years and I don't see why they would start now. The Mariners are actually 16-35 in their last 51 games where they come off a loss the game before so we know that they don't recover well from losses. They have also been God awful when playing the fourth and last game of a four game series winning only 16 of their last 52 fourth games of a series. The Mariners are not a smart away wager as they have won only 21 of their last 71 road games. How pathetic is that anyways? The Mariners are only 7-20 in their last 27 games as a road underdog, they are only 3-13 in their last 16 games as an underdog in general and like I said before they are as good a fade as it gets when playing away from home with a mediocre pitcher on the mound. They have dropped 6 of their last 7 games overall against AL Central opponents, have dropped 5 of their last 6 games played on Field Turf and they have been underdogs of this range in each and every one of those games. Jarrod Washburn is an experienced pitcher but the Mariners don't support him on the road as they are only 4-9 in his last 13 road starts (every single one as an underdog by the way) and Washburn is only 6-14 in his last 20 road starts versus a team with a winning record. I don't know how many of you know this but Seattle has won only 7 of Washburn's last 26 starts and that is just horrendous. Washburn is a horrendous 1-7 in his last eight starts versus AL Central Division opponents and he has not pitched well on the road or as an underdog. These are some of the best odds you will ever get going against Washburn and I cannot believe I have seen some people back him for this game.

The Minnesota Twins are almost always a good home wager and you can always count on them fighting for a full nine innings when they play at home. Having said that...they are off to another good start this season having won two of their first three games of a four game series against the Mariners and I'm sure they would love to be 3-1 heading into the weekend with the chance to lead the Division and build some momentum. Well if they are going to win that third game of the year today it will have to be done by Glen Perkins and the bullpen because this Seattle lineup can be tough. Having said that you don't have to worry about the Minnesota bats showing up when it counts most because the Twins are 19-7 in their last 26 home games versus a left handed starting pitcher and they have now won 37 of their last 51 home games when favored on the moneyline. Minnesota has also been very good in this range of wager as they have won 24 of their last 35 games when favored by -110 to -150 and they have now won 39 of their last 57 games when favored. The only time you should ever bet on this team is when they are picked by oddsmakers to win. Perkins has been inconsistent in the past but once he settles down in this game I think he'll be fine as the Twins are 5-1 in the last six games Perkins started as a home favorite and they are 5-1 in his last six starts versus AL West opponents. Minnesota has won 5 of Perkins last 7 home starts and he is the one pitcher on this team who has always been able to rely on his batters to provide him with support as Minnesota has now won 13 of Perkins last 19 starts overall and 7 of his last 10 starts as a favorite. The Twins love taking on lefties in this ballpark and today should be no different. I think they are a great home wager as a favorite and this is a perfect spot to back them because they are about to head for the road and betting on them away from home is completely off limits for me. Don't be afraid to back Perkins here because he has a good bullpen to back him up and although shaky early in games, he recovers well and gives him team a chance. Twins at home versus a lefty equals cash money.

The tradition between these two teams has always been to engage in shootouts and engage in very high scoring games. I mean something like 25 of the last 33 meetings between these teams have gone OVER the number and those are staggering numbers. Having said that, why the hell would you bet on a Seattle team that has won only 5 of their last 21 games played in Minnesota and who have always had problems keeping up with the Twins away from home? Seattle has also lost 5 of their last 6 games versus Minnesota when Jarrod Washburn is on the mound. Right now neither team is hitting the ball enough for me to advise taking the OVER in this game but I do think the Twins will hit a little bit better than they have in the first two games and in the end what this comes down to is the bullpens. Minnesota has one of the most solid pens in the bigs right now and their ERA on the season is 2.00. Seattle's bullpen has been decent in this series but if the Twins bats catch fire I don't trust them at all as they have an ERA of 3.52 in three games so far this season. What this also comes down to is both teams ability to hit off left-handed pitchers as both starters are lefties and let me tell you right now that Minnesota is batting .286 on the year versus left handed pitchers while Seattle is batting only .185 versus left handed pitchers in three games. I am taking the home team for sure.

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 1-7 in Jarrod Washburn's last eight starts versus AL Central opponents.


Minnesota 5, Seattle 3




More selections to come...
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The Tampa Bay Rays are defending American League Champions and for some reason they just don't get the respect I think they deserve against some of the top teams like Boston. I mean not only did they beat the Red Sox yesterday but they made the Red Sox look pretty bad and I don't see why they would not do the same in this game. I know it's tough for some people to come to grips with the fact that the Rays are going to contend again this year because a lot of people called last season a fluke but this is a stacked lineup that added Pat Burrell to the mix in the offseason and they are only going to get better if you ask me. In my mind I will no longer hesitate before backing this team. The Rays have won 11 of their last 15 games against AL East opponents and they have won 16 of their last 23 times when playing Game 3 of a series so this is when they are good and this is when they put opponents away. I know it's early in the season right now but the Rays are out to make a statement no doubt and they are probably still a bit bitter about not winning the World Series. Tampa Bay are definitely not as good on the road as they are at home but I made some money backing these guys as underdogs in 2008 and I plan on doing the same today. Matt Garza is on the mound for the Rays today and Tampa Bay has won 4 of his last 5 starts when he is an underdog. He is a very good young pitcher with some very solid mechanics and the Rays have won 7 of his last 10 starts against AL East opponents. He has been very good against winning teams but the big problem for Garza has been his performances on the road. Despite not pitching all that well away from home in 2008, Garza did a lot of growing up in the off-season and I actually like his chances against this Red Sox lineup. The Rays are here to prove something and I think Garza is going to have a decent outing against Boston. Usually if you can keep the Red Sox to 5 or less runs, the Rays offense is going to win the game for you because they are rarely held to 5 or less runs of their own. I think Garza gets the job done.

The Boston Red Sox as always are favored to win the World Series again this season but what the hell is the deal with the odds for this game? I know Dice-K has some good stuff and I know he has kicked some ass since coming to the bigs but again we are talking about the defending American League Champions and he is getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers in this game. I know the Red Sox have been very good and have almost been a sure bet the last few seasons and even though I see them having almost the same amount of success this season, I also think we are going to have some good fade spots. Boston is only 3-7 in their last 10 games when favored which means that those last 10 games have been great opportunities for bettors like you and me to fade the BoSox and go with the underdog. I know the Red Sox don't lose much when Dice K pitches and that is a proven fact as they have won 40 of his 57 starts so going against them to many is not a good idea and I have a feeling most of the public is going to be on the Red Sox in this game. Having said that, it's too early for me to place wagers on the Red Sox because they don't really get things going until 2-3 weeks from now and I just don't like them in a shootout with the Rays in an April game. I will most likely be on the other side of things should these two teams meet here later in the year with the same pitching matchup but again I think the Bosox are going to have their usual slow start problems against this year and it will take a bit of time to get into the full swing of things. Boston has completely the Rays the last two or three season both on the road and at home but now that Tampa Bay has done a lot of growing up and now that they are defending AL East champions, I really don't see the two teams would not be considered even. Sure Dice K is a special pitcher but I don't trust him against this lineup in this game and I am going to have to go against the Red Sox in this game. The Rays lineup is just too good and with the addition of Pat Burrell (who I think is going to love batting against Dice K), the Rays should have enough fire power to get to the bullpen early which means they can add on a few insurance runs before shutting things down and winning a high scoring game.

Alright so the lowdown on this game is that even though Matt Garza had more problems than not in road games last season, he did dominate the Red Sox and Tampa is 4-0 in Garza's last four starts against Boston. So how can you not love the value in betting the underdog in this game knowing that the Rays have won the last four times Garza has faced this very dangerous Red Sox lineup? I think if this game gets high scoring for some reason that definitely benefits the Rays because they have the more powerful lineup and they have an edge with Burrell in the lineup. Dice K started two games at Fenway against the Rays last season and one of them was shaky 8-7 win and the other was a 5-4 loss to the Rays. Garza on the other hand was brilliant here at Fenway in a 9-1 win over the Red Sox in Game 3 of the American League Championship and that was his only Fenway start of the year. I really think mentally that is going to be huge for Garza, who normally struggles on the road and I think the youngster is going to have his problems in this game but in the end he will get things together and put together a very strong outing. I say it again, if you can hold the Red Sox to five runs or less, your Rays offense is going to bail you out and score at least 5 runs of their own. You can believe me on that. UNDERDOG HERE BABY! RAYS ARE THE REAL DEAL!

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 4-1 in Matt Garza's last five starts as an underdog.


Tampa Bay 8, Boston 5




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The Milwaukee Brewers made me some nice cash last night in their big win over the Big Unit and over a Giants team that is much improved this season but I don't think their success in this ballpark is going to last past that win. I say that because Milwaukee was a complete bust on the road last season and although I like Manny Parra and I think he is going to have a good season, I just don't trust him in this game and really don't see him getting the job done on the mound tonight. I don't care how good of a wager this team was yesterday (I personally faded Randy Johnson in his much anticipated Giants debut) but the bottom line remains that you will not get very far in baseball betting if you take the Brewers on the road. I say that because Milwaukee has won only 28 of their last 88 road game as an underdog, they are horrendous when Vegas doubts them away from home and all-in-all, Milwaukee has won only 3 of their last 14 road games overall. The Brewers are also only 3-13 in their last 16 games as an underdog, they have sucked balls against right handed starters going 1-5 in their last six games versus righties and I can tell you right now that this is a very bad spot to back Parra. Wait until you get some good lines on him at home instead. I say that because the Brewers are only 1-4 in Parra's last five starts as an underdog, they are only 1-4 in his last five road games as an underdog and are now 0-4 overall in his last four starts. Like I said before, I have made some money betting on Parra at home but on the road he does not get much run support and he does not have much luck so going against him at this price seems like the right thing to do and I'm about to make some big time cash doing it. Milwaukee is going to have a good season but how the hell do you back a team that has won only 28 of their last 88 road games as an underdog? You can't and I am going against them tonight. Parra might have a good outing but it won't be enough to beat Cain on the other side and I am taking the better of the two pitchers tonight.

The San Francisco Giants and their fans were no doubt disappointed at the end results of the Randy Johnson debut experience last night but there is not time to think about that. They ran into a red hot pitcher who has a very bright future in major league baseball and although I have respect for Manny Parra as well, he is just not that good on the road and the Giants fans should have fun in this one. I mean Matt Cain has shown in the past that he can dominate opposing batters in this league and I love the line we are getting for Cain at home. I also talked about how much the Giants used to love hitting against lefties at home and how much money you could make on that the last two or three seasons. Well let me just tell you right now that if you are going to bet on the Giants in crucial series deciding games like tonight's you are going to make some mad cash. San Francisco is 10-3 in their last 13 during Game 3 of a series and the Giants have now won 15 of their last 21 home games when favored in those games. Unlike two or three seasons ago, the Giants have not been that good at home against left-handed starters and that magic seems to have faded quite a bit. Having said that, the Giants have won 5 of Matt Cain's last 7 home starts, they almost always show up for him when he is on the mound in this ballpark and despite his end of season struggles in 2008, I think he comes back even more mature this season and ready to win big games like this one. Prior to their win against Milwaukee in the first game of this series the Giants had lost six straight games against the Brewers and not many people were giving them a chance but the young arms on this team are probably going to mature a lot this season and I really think Cain is going to be motivated to pitch well tonight seeing how Lincecum is tearing things up in the league. I am not a big fan of betting on the Giants and you won't see me on them all that much this season but this is their first experience this season against a left handed pitcher and I have a feeling this lineup is going to do a lot better than the 2008 version that struggled so much against lefties. The Giants bullpen has been excellent, something they lacked big time the last few seasons, and that could be the difference in this game. The Milwaukee batters have struggled big time so far this season as they are hitting only .231 on the year and even if Cain has a few mechanics issues in this game, the Brewers are ice cold at the plate. The Giants are batting .269 on the season and the Brewers starters have been horrendous and so has their bullpen who have an ERA of 5.68 on the year to go along with their starting pitchers 6.35 ERA. The Giants should have a good time in this game and I think they will do just enough to pull out another win.

Alright so I am 2-0 betting in this series as I took the Giants in Game 1, took the Brewers last night and am going for the sweep of this series myself. I have not been able to find any consistency in my early season betting but my big plays have all hit, I am up some nice cash and I am looking to keep the money train rolling in this game here. I don't know if you guys noticed this or not but the Brewers, despite their win in Game 2, have been completely horrendous at the plate and none of their big guns have come out guns blazing in the regular season games. I don't think Milwaukee is worth another wager until they return home. The Brewers won every single meeting (all six of them) in 2008 and there are no concerns about that this time around seeing how the Giants already won the opener of this series. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire tonight and for some reason he absolutely loves the Giants. San Francisco is 6-1 in their last seven games with Eddings behind home plate while Milwaukee is only 2-6 in their last eight games with Eddings behind the plate. I think the Brewers have their home opener on their minds right now and like I said before, I refuse to back Parra away from home even though he easily won here last season but then again so did everyone who played against that pathetic Giants team. Well they have made some changes this season and I have no problems backing the Giants at home against a lefty as they return to their success of seasons past.

Trend of the Game: Milwaukee is 3-13 in their last 16 games as an underdog.


San Francisco 4, Milwaukee 2




:toast:




Alright so I am 1-1 heading into the night cap and that pisses me off. For some reason I cannot sweep a days card if my life depended on it but I am getting a lot better and my feel for certain teams is improving by the day. I have hit both of my big plays this season and lets make this number three tonight. Good Luck to everyone!
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