four today w/analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">5</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+12.22 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">8</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+12.38 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2009)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">8</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+12.38 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Detroit -½ +1.24 over TORONTO (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings) <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
The Jays came out swinging in the opener against a shaky Justin Verlander but they’ve been seeing BB’s ever since and in fact, they’re lucky to be up 2-1 in this series. They had six hits on Tuesday and they followed that up with five hits yesterday. Two rookies will make their major-league debut here and the Tigers rookie, Rick Porcello, come in with a lot more credentials than the Jays rookie, Ricky Romero. Porcello was the Tigers' top draft pick in 2007 and he was very sharp in the spring, as he posted a 2.30 ERA in 15.2 frames with just two walks. The reports are that he has the poise of a good, veteran pitcher and that he has a terrific sinker too. Furthermore, Jim Leyland has a very good track record with young prospects and Porcello is one of the most regarded prospects in the league this year. The Jays have had to replace A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan, meaning their hand is forced. Enter Romero, who had a decent spring but his minor league numbers are not that impressive. In addition, he walked 10 batters in the spring and you can be damn sure the Tigers will be patient at the plate, forcing the kid to throw strikes. The Tigers offense is potentially fearsome, they have the better pitcher going and the only disadvantage they have is in the pen. Thus, I’ll eliminate the pen. This one goes at 12:35 PM EST. Play: Detroit in the first five innings -½ +1.24 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Seattle/MINNESOTA over 9 +1.06 <o:p></o:p>
Two complete and utter stiffs will face off here and when you throw in two shaky pens and the Metrodome, it’s hard to imagine this one staying under this number. Glen Perkins went 12-4 last season but the only reason he did so was because of an average of 6.23 run support every time he took the mound. The fact is, lefties hit a whopping .352 off him and overall his BAA against was .301. In September of last year his ERA was over 7.00 and his WHIP was over 2.00. Jarrod Washburn isn’t much better and in fact could be worse. He was tagged in the spring to the tune of 51 hits in 30 innings to go along with a 6.60 ERA. Washburn went 5-14 last season with an ERA of 4.69 and that was after pitching half his games at arguably the best pitchers park in the majors. This ticket appears very likely to cash and frankly, I’d be a little surprised to even have to sweat it out. Play: Seattle/Minnesota over 9 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).<o:p></o:p>
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TEXAS –1.08 over Cleveland
Carl Pavano has barely seen the mound over the last four years and now he’s being asked to make his season debut against the powerful line-up of the Rangers. Pavano’s spring ERA was over 5.00 and the only reason he’s getting a chance is because the Indians got him to sign at the bargain basement price of 1.5M. One good inning in the majors gets you more than that. Furthermore, the Indians are 0-2 on the year, they’re not hitting and even with three Ranger errors and three walks yesterday they never really put a rally together. Brandon McCarthy is also a risk, as he has been plagued by injuries his whole brief career. However, he’s still young and he looked fairly sharp in spring, allowing just 20 hits in 22 innings. Ok, I can’t really give an edge to McCarthy over Pavano, as both could get slaughtered in this park, or any park for that matter. I can, however, give a big edge to the Rangers bats (they outscored Cleveland 17-6 in two games) and their bullpen and just in case it matters, McCarthy is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five career starts against the Tribe. Play: Texas –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2). <o:p></o:p>
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Oakland +1.10 over L.A. ANGELS (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings) <o:p></o:p>
You gotta love Brett Anderson. Man, this kid has excelled everywhere he’s pitched and he has the poise and command that it takes to be successful at this level too. Remember, the A’s traded Dan Haren to get him so they knew they were getting something good in return. Anderson pitched at all three levels of Oakland’s minor league system and struck out 118 in 105 innings while walking just 27 and posting a 3.69 ERA. He also led the U.S. Olympic team to the bronze medal with a win over Japan. He continued that strong pitching into spring training, finishing 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA with 15 strikeouts and six walks in 28 2-3 innings. ESPN reports that he’ll work with four good pitches (fastball, curve, slider and change) and they also report that he’ll mix it up and knows exactly what he’s doing on the mound. The Angels will send out Jared Weaver and he’s been on the decline just about every month since his debut. His ERA has risen each of the two years since, finishing at 4.33 last season. The Angels have never faced Anderson and he has a great chance to excel in his debut. Play: Oakland in the first five innings +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
 

I'd rather be Kayak fishing
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Thanks for the picks sherwood. What books offer the -.5 lines you get for first 5 innings?
 

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Sep 21, 2004
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1-2 with a tough one in the Tigers. Up 2-1 in the fifth, the Tigers had a guy thrown out at the plate with one out and they never scored and the Jays hit a solo shot in the bottom of the fifth to tie it and spoil the wager.

Yesterday, however, I won two games that were losing going to the fifth inning and that's the nature of the beast.

I'm liking betting these 5 inning lines and taking the pens out of the equation. Back tomorrow.

Good luck everyone.
 

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