Moneyline vs. -1.5 Runlines

I'm looking for any information or statistical analysis of the cost/benefit of playing runlines for favorites vs. laying the steeper moneyline price. Do they extra payouts from the runlines equal or outweigh the occasional beat where the team wins but doesn't cover the 1.5? How many games are decided by one run (when the favorite wins)?

Anything you think might help.

I can offer a little basic info on quick research I did looking back to 2006-2008, but no numbers about how it affects Favorites/Underdogs etc...

For 2006-2008, the % of games decided by 1 run was between 27.8-28.2 each season. So about 28% of games are decided by 1 run can be used as a baseline but I'm not sure how it affects Road Faves,Home Dogs, or anything else like that. I take it game by game using that 28% number (combined with a few other considerations like H/A) to decide which one gives me best value in each case. Hope this helps a little bit...GL with your plays

IrishTim said:

I'm looking for any information or statistical analysis of the cost/benefit of playing runlines for favorites vs. laying the steeper moneyline price. Do they extra payouts from the runlines equal or outweigh the occasional beat where the team wins but doesn't cover the 1.5? How many games are decided by one run (when the favorite wins)?

Anything you think might help.

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I got some info for you....Stay away from runlines

You can`t cap a runline play.....Your just hopeing and praying they win by 2+

IrishTim said:

I'm looking for any information or statistical analysis of the cost/benefit of playing runlines for favorites vs. laying the steeper moneyline price. Do they extra payouts from the runlines equal or outweigh the occasional beat where the team wins but doesn't cover the 1.5? How many games are decided by one run (when the favorite wins)?

Anything you think might help.

Click to expand...

Better then that.....Get yourself a nice bank roll....And when you see a team that you like -220.....Instead of looking for better odds by taking the runline.....Just pop 3 grand on the -220.

Runline players never stay around that long.....They go broke.....They hang around here because they don`t bet real money

i prefer money lines because your chances of winning are better. i think you are adding in more variables and dont get the fair price on run lines. unless you are getting +185 or higher...i think you have better value in picking the better team.

Analyzing the Run Line

Many of you love betting the Run Line, especially with the heavy favorites because of the reduced chalk. In fact, you can turn a -150 Money Line Favorite into a Run Line Underdog. The reduced juice keeps your risk low.
The oddsmakers use the standard fact that 70% of Winners beat the Run Line to calculate the Run Line odds.
The first thing I wanted to test was how teams with a certain money line odds performed on the Run Line. Is there a correlation between the odds a team has and how it performs against the run line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

League Wide: 72.5%
+200 or more: 70.2%
+190s: 77.0%
+180s: 76.4%
+170s: 67.4%
+160s: 75.3%
+150s: 72.9%
+140s: 70.9%
+130s: 73.5%
+120s: 68.0%
+110s: 72.4%
+100s: 72.9%
-100s: 68.9%
-110s: 70.6%
-120s: 72.4%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.3%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%
-190s: 77.5%
-200s: 76.2%
</pre> Favorites that are -120 or better beat the runline at a higher percentage than the league average (73.6%). In fact, this indicates that betting the runline on these teams will generally be better than betting the money line. Turn these favorites into a dog.


Analyzing the Run Line (cont'd)
Nevertheless, a more striking point worth noting is the Home-Away Dynamics of the Run Line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites better than -120: 80.1%
</pre> Analyzing it further, we see that Road Teams in the Money Line Odds range of better than -120 specified in our earlier table beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game. There is a 10% difference in covering the Run Line for the Road Team than for the Home Team.
The reason for this is quite simple: Home Teams that win the game do not have to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Road teams that win the game still bat in the Top of the 9th. That means the Road winner has 12.5% more at-bats than the corresponding home favorite.
Let us statistically model this scenario to show us how it works. During any half inning, the expected value of runs scored is 0.5. This means that the expected value of number of half innings necessary to score 1 full run would be approximately every 2 half innings. The home teams beats the Run Line with a 70% probability. This means that for every 100 games, they are ahead by more than 1 run going into bottom of the 9th 70 times and only ahead by 1 run going into the bottom half of the 9th 30 times. Since the home team wins, there is no need to bat in the 9th. Conversely, for the road team, they will be batting all 100 of those times. Of those 30 times, the expected number of games for them to score an extra run necessary to beat the run line is 15. This is an increase of 15%!! Reality only shows a 10% improvement and this can be explained by the fact that although the average number of runs per half innings is 0.5. They will not be spreading 1 run every 2 games. They will be held scoreless about 66% of the time and for the remaining 33% of the time score 1 or more runs.


http://www.easybaseballbetting.com/run_line_analysis.html

Great information guys, I appreciate it all.

Greenbacks said:

Better then that.....Get yourself a nice bank roll....And when you see a team that you like -220.....Instead of looking for better odds by taking the runline.....Just pop 3 grand on the -220.

Runline players never stay around that long.....They go broke.....They hang around here because they don`t bet real money

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I beg to differ. I wager ARL's and very successful with real money. Dogs = $$$$$

IrishTim said:

Great information guys, I appreciate it all.

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your my hero IrishTim ope:

What about betting the Run Line and the Money Line for the same game? For example i like the Reds to blow the Pirates out tomorrow so i bet Reds ML -140 and Reds -1.5(+150). Good idea to double bet a team like this?

moocow said:

What about betting the Run Line and the Money Line for the same game? For example i like the Reds to blow the Pirates out tomorrow so i bet Reds ML -140 and Reds -1.5(+150). Good idea to double bet a team like this?

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Probably not.

moocow said:

What about betting the Run Line and the Money Line for the same game? For example i like the Reds to blow the Pirates out tomorrow so i bet Reds ML -140 and Reds -1.5(+150). Good idea to double bet a team like this?

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I don't have any mathematical data on it or anything, but I would say its probably not a terrible idea, but also not the best. I would assume that if you like the RL, take the RL and in the long run that will work out better. Might suck one night that it woulda worked the other way but if youre gonna bet 100-200 games on the year then gotta be patient and see how it all works out in total

GL tho, I'll be on Reds RL myself tomorrow

I have been posting plays with this method for MLB 09 here http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=673891



I also posted about 8 days in Spring Training here, http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=672741

VERY profitable so far by putting 1 unit on the RL and 2 units on the ML

Pretty interesting stuff there Hip, I hope it continues for you. I haven't tried it myself but if it ends up working longterm I will definitely admit my hunch was wrong and jump on it with you. One question though...have you been keeping track to see what the results wouldve been had you played ONLY RL for all 3 of the units? That would be useful to compare and cool to see what you find.

Either way GL to you all, however you do it :toast:

Greenbacks said:

I got some info for you....Stay away from runlines

You can`t cap a runline play.....Your just hopeing and praying they win by 2+

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Nonsense.

2+ run wins can be capped just as easily as overall Wins. It does require more work though since most of the stat sites don't supply separated tallies for -1.5 and +1.5, but rather, they just list "Runline records". That's confusing for most teams since it's impossible to distinguish where they are strongest (plus or minus)

There are also several actuarial spots where the chances of a 2+ run outcome increase or decrease.

As DJAX noted and MisterMJ provides with his detailed Pasted analysis, about 70% of games end with a 2+ run outcome. Therefore it behooves any MLB capper who has the time to give a look at both the RL and the ML to decide which - if either - might be a better risk/reward ratio.

greenbacks :lol: kid bets all on line movement, don't listen to what he has to say.

Greenbacks said:

I got some info for you....Stay away from runlines

You can`t cap a runline play.....Your just hopeing and praying they win by 2+

Click to expand...

did sports insights, wagerline or sportsbook.com's betting trends tell you that :missingte@):missingte:lol:

so basically, if I am reading Mistermj's post correctly, in short it is best if you are betting a -120 or high road fav to bet the RL, as rule of thumb so to say?

DJax24 said:

Pretty interesting stuff there Hip, I hope it continues for you. I haven't tried it myself but if it ends up working longterm I will definitely admit my hunch was wrong and jump on it with you. One question though...have you been keeping track to see what the results wouldve been had you played ONLY RL for all 3 of the units? That would be useful to compare and cool to see what you find.

Either way GL to you all, however you do it :toast:

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You're post convinced me to try it today with the Braves. The money worked out so it's basically -1, because if Atl wins by 1 run then the winnings from the ML covers the loss from the runline. But if they win by more than 1, I get a better payout than if I put it all on the moneyline.

austintx05 said:

greenbacks :lol: kid bets all on line movement, don't listen to what he has to say.

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Yeah, I always thought those bets based on the public and line movements and which side the "sharps" are on were always kind of ridiculous. Cap the games and pick the winner. No need to make it more complicated than it needs to be.

Thanks for the info, Barman and everyone else.