MistaFlava's MLB Good Friday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/5-Pack)

The Toronto Blue Jays are my pride and joy and always have been (seeing how Toronto is where I am from) but I have come to learn over the years that these good starts at the beginning of the season are often bogus and for some reason both the Yankees and the Red Sox always find a way to sleepwalk through the first few weeks of the season giving most Jays fans hope that we can finally make it back to the playoffs for the first time in more than 15 years now. Well not so fast my friend. This team still has issues to workout. They have one of the best young hitting lineups in baseball but they have a few questions marks in their rotation and Scott Richmond is one of them. The problem with the Jays is that they cannot win games in their own Division and although this is not a divisional game right here today, I have to say the AL Central has been kind to my boys lately and we have had success against teams from that division. Having said that, the Jays have and always will be one of the most inconsistent teams in Major League Baseball as they seem to always struggle to win more than a few games in a row. As a matter of fact, Toronto is now 3-7 in their last 10 games that follow a win, they sucked late last year when playing on a Friday (going 2-6 in their last 8 Friday games) and they are only 1-4 in their last five games as underdogs. I really don't trust these guys on the road with a young pitcher who is only on the team because he is Canadian and I really don't see Richmond being in the rotation past his first few starts. Richmond did pitch well at home against Cleveland in a 4-0 loss last August but he was rocked in his last three spring starts this season and I have no confidence whatsoever in his abilities to lead a team into an opponent's home opener on the road and pull out the win. Cleveland struggled big time in their road opening series and I really think they are going to rock the living crap out of Richmond and of the limited BlueJays bullpen we are going to see in this game. Bad spot for Toronto.

The Cleveland Indians are off to a terrible start as their pitching staff got absolutely rocked in their road opening series in Texas and the Indians come home with an 0-3 record on the year (having been swept right out of Arlington in disgusting fashion). The batters are not getting the job done hitting only .221 at the plate, the pitchers have sucked big time ass combining for an ERA of 18.00 (that's their three starters so far), the bullpen has an ERA of 4.85 and the team has really sucked in all of their games. Well now they head back home for their Home Opener and believe me this team is not ready or willing to lose another game. Not here, not now, not against Scott Richmond (by far the weakest link in the Jays rotation). The Indians have a youngster of their own on the mound today as Scott Lewis is handed starting the ball for his 5th career start and let me tell you right now that Lewis is a big time prospect in this organization. He is 4-0 in four career starts with an ERA of 2.62 and he was fantastic in all four of his September 2008 starts. I expect much of the same here as Lewis is up against an inconsistent Jays lineup. Toronto is batting only 0.91 versus left handed pitchers this season by the way. I talked about Cleveland's never ending struggles on the road but I have to tell you that things are different at home where this team is 6-0 in their last six home games. The Indians have also won four straight at home versus right handed pitchers and they are very good in Game 1 of a series winning 25 of their last 25 first game of a series situations. Like I said before, Lewis has made four Major League Baseball starts in his career (all last September) and he won all four of them. The team plays behind him with a great deal of confidence and that is going to be huge here as the Indians are nicely priced and as they try to win their first game of 2009. I actually think we are going to see an explosion of the Cleveland bats in this game and I have serious faith that the Indians batters are going to finally breakout of their slump and I think they are going to rock Toronto's should be demoted ASAP starter Scott Richmond. No way the Indians lose this game here.

So we have a battle between a team that leads the AL East Division in April like they always seem to do going up against a team who is 0-3 heading into their Home Opener. Logic says to take the Indians here and that is what most people are doing but having said that, Scott Lewis is a much better young pitcher than Scott Richmond (who was rocked in Spring Training and again is only on the team because of his Nationality). The Jays are going to have a solid team this season and maybe later on in the year they can win games on the road with some of their youngsters on the mound but let me tell you right now that Cleveland has not been a kind place to play for the Jays as they are a pathetic 2-15 in their last 17 games played in Cleveland and they are only 7-23 in their last 30 meetings overall with the Indians. That does not sit well with me because they struggle both on the mound and at the plate when visiting Cleveland and with the Indians bats ready to explode after a pathetic stint in Arlington on opening week, the Indians seem to be the only way to go here. I think this is going to be a high scoring game because regardless of how well Lewis has pitched he is still a rookie and the Jays still have a lineup that is hitting .287 on the season. Nonetheless, the Cleveland bats win this game.

Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 15-2 in their last 17 home games versus Toronto.


Cleveland 14, Toronto 3




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The Philadelphia Phillies are going to have a lot of people backing them game in and game out this season and that is what comes with being the defending World Series Champions. Well the Phillies looked like complete ass in their home opening series against the Braves and I find it very tough to put money on them knowing that all is not well as of just yet. People seem to lack an understanding of how April baseball works as a lot of the good teams come out of the gates slowly and it takes them a few weeks to start winning on a consistent basis. Great pitchers are ice cold and in this case Cole Hamels is on the mound for the Phillies so we can expect even more public backing for his first start of the season. Well I am not buying it at all. Sure enough Hamels was a hero in the playoffs last year and the team has won his last five starts but I don't think he is ready to play in a place like this just now and I think the Rockies offense is going to go to town on Hamels in this game. Hamels missed the beginning of the season because of some inflammation in his elbow and some soreness in the arm and who is to say that he is ready to go here. Right now the Rockies have two wins on the year and they have demolished every left handed pitcher they have faced as they are hitting .360 off left handed pitchers this season and again that has me thinking that Hamels is probably in trouble for his first start of the season. This is not an easy ballpark to pitch in and seeing how Hamels will probably have a high pitch count early in this game, I really don't like the fact that Philadelphia's team ERA is 6.33 right now because if Hamels is chased early, things can only get worse for the defending world champions.

The Colorado Rockies looked pretty damn good in their first three games of the season winning a series on the road against a very good Arizona team and now they have their home opener against one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Having said that, best pitchers doesn't mean much at this time of the year because as I was explaining earlier it takes a lot of times for some guys to get going and this is a perfect time to pick a good batting lineup like Colorado's in their home opener against a good pitcher getting underdog type odds. The Rockies are hitting only .248 on the season so far but they have pounded left handed pitchers and have rocked them to the tune of .360 batting on the year. Their pitching staff has been excellent with a combined ERA of 3.81 in the first three games which is a huge improvement on what they had going last season. Jason Marquis makes his first start of the season for the Rockies and the experienced veteran knows a thing or two about pitching in this ballpark and against this Phillies lineup. What I have noticed in the past is that the Rockies have struggled against lefties at home but their lineup has changed a little bit and Colorado was very good last season when coming off an day off. They were actually 5-2 in their last seven games coming off an off day and that is going to be big coming into this game. The Phillies pitching has been horrendous all around in their opening three games series at home against the Braves and with a Rockies lineup that can put up 10+ runs per home game on any given day, I think the Phillies are in big time trouble in the opening game of this series. Marquis can be shaky at times but he is going up against a Phillies lineup that is hitting only .212 on the season so far and it is going to take a lot more for this offense to find some kind of groove. Making things worse is the fact that the Phillies have hit better off left handed pitchers and they are hitting only .202 against right handed pitchers this season. This is a very good spot for the Rockies because their bats are going, this is their home opener and they face an overvalued team (the Phillies) who have yet to find their way in the 2009 season. Great pick on Colorado here.

Alright so the Phillies dominated everyone they faced in 2008 so its tough to look at stats from last season and get all crazy about that. The Phillies actually won every game they played against Colorado last season in a perfect 5-0 season sweep but again those stats mean nothing because the fundamentals of this Colorado team are a lot better this season. Cole Hamels has actually started only one game in his career against the Rockies and that was in 2007 and it was a 4-2 home loss. I don't know that he has enough experience pitchers at Coors coming off an injury and this could be a very bad spot to back him. Do you not think oddsmakers have a clue or two as to what they are doing here and why they would set the line the way they set the line for this game? Marquis has faced the Phillies several times in his career as a member of the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves and I can tell you right now that his team is 3-1 in the last four starts against the Phillies and he has not allowed more than 4 earned runs in his last 9 starts against Philadelphia. You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time he allowed 5 or more earned runs against the Phils. I think Colorado has their way with Philadelphia in this game and I don't recommend starting Cole Hamels in your fantasy leagues at all today. Give him a bit of time.

Trend of the Game: Colorado is 5-1 in their last six games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game.


Colorado 8, Philadelphia 5




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