<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+0.10 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">11</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">7</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+10.48 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2009)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">11</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">7</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+10.48 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
FLORIDA -½ -1.01 over NY Mets 9 (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
The big weakness in the Marlins this season is its bullpen so therefore, when I’m endorsing the Fish, I’ll be playing them in five innings only and that’s precisely the situation here. Ricky Nolasco is a true #1 starter and he’s also one of the top pitchers in the game. Nolasco was spot on in the first three innings of his first start against the Nats before allowing two in the fourth and three more in the sixth. However, when he took the mound in the third he had an 8-0 lead and it’s not uncommon for pitchers to relax a bit when they have such a substantial lead. Fact is, Nolasco has wicked stuff and he’ll be facing a true #5 starter in Livan Hernandez. Hernandez allows way too many hits and is always in and out of jams. Putting these speedy Marlins on the base-paths is going to cost him dearly. Hernandez allowed the opposition to hit an incredible .352 off him last season after allowing 257 hits in 180 frames. His ERA ballooned to 6.05 by the end of the year. The Mets are a strong team for sure, but so are the Marlins and the big edge here is that we have a #1 starter vs a #5 at home. Play: Florida in the first five innings -½ -1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Houston +1.20 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are no better than last season and in fact are very likely worse. Guys like Shumaker, Ludwick, Duncan and Ankiel had decent years but frankly, I’m suggesting that all four would be bench players on every other team in the majors. Outside of Pujols and Molina the Cardinals offer up very little else. Meanwhile, the Astros could be one of the more potent offenses in the NL. They’ll score a lot more runs than these Cardinals will and whether that occurs today or not remains to be seen. What I do know is that the favorite’s only edge here is home field, as the Astros do everything better than the Cardinals. As for the starters, Oswald vs Wainwright, well, I see no edge for the Cards there either. Play: Houston +1.20 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Toronto -½ +1.10 over CLEVELAND (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Instead of laying –1.19 on the Jays for the game, it makes more sense to lay a half run in the first five innings with a small take-back. The beautiful thing about this wager is that the Jays will face Cliff Lee coming off a Cy Young award and that makes Lee’s stock extremely overvalued. Lee had a great year and it happens but it’s more than likely he’ll revert back to his old, very average self this year. Even after his remarkable year he still owns a career ERA over 4.00 and a career BAA of .261. The Rangers smacked him around in his opener to the tune of 10 hits and seven runs in just five innings. Then we have the winless Indians facing Roy Halliday and that’s a big psychological disadvantage as well. Halliday is the very last pitcher in the league anyone would want to face in an attempt to pick up its first win of the year. The Jays are 4-1 and they’re seeing beach balls to start the year, as their 37 runs in the first five games will attest to. Play: Toronto in the first five innings -½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Minnesota –½ +1.23 over CHICAGO (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
He’s started 35 games over the last three years, has had multiple surgeries, he’s worn down and is an out-of-shape, 35-yr-old who has zero upside. With good pitching so scarce in this league, teams are willing to take a flyer on just about anyone that’s had success at this level. Fact is, Colon is a complete stiff and his career is over, period. The White Sox have not looked good anywhere and they’ll be facing the wicked arm of Francisco Liriano. It’s almost not fair. This is such a small line that’s it’s actually an insult to Liriano. If he were wearing pinstripes he’d be about a -2.20 favorite over Colon and the South Side. Anyway, Liriano was nasty in his first start despite allowing four runs. He made one error and paid for it but he only allowed four hits in seven innings and didn’t walk a single batter. This is a pitching mismatch with huge value on Liriano at this price. Play: Minnesota in the first five innings –½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
FLORIDA -½ -1.01 over NY Mets 9 (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
The big weakness in the Marlins this season is its bullpen so therefore, when I’m endorsing the Fish, I’ll be playing them in five innings only and that’s precisely the situation here. Ricky Nolasco is a true #1 starter and he’s also one of the top pitchers in the game. Nolasco was spot on in the first three innings of his first start against the Nats before allowing two in the fourth and three more in the sixth. However, when he took the mound in the third he had an 8-0 lead and it’s not uncommon for pitchers to relax a bit when they have such a substantial lead. Fact is, Nolasco has wicked stuff and he’ll be facing a true #5 starter in Livan Hernandez. Hernandez allows way too many hits and is always in and out of jams. Putting these speedy Marlins on the base-paths is going to cost him dearly. Hernandez allowed the opposition to hit an incredible .352 off him last season after allowing 257 hits in 180 frames. His ERA ballooned to 6.05 by the end of the year. The Mets are a strong team for sure, but so are the Marlins and the big edge here is that we have a #1 starter vs a #5 at home. Play: Florida in the first five innings -½ -1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>Houston +1.20 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals are no better than last season and in fact are very likely worse. Guys like Shumaker, Ludwick, Duncan and Ankiel had decent years but frankly, I’m suggesting that all four would be bench players on every other team in the majors. Outside of Pujols and Molina the Cardinals offer up very little else. Meanwhile, the Astros could be one of the more potent offenses in the NL. They’ll score a lot more runs than these Cardinals will and whether that occurs today or not remains to be seen. What I do know is that the favorite’s only edge here is home field, as the Astros do everything better than the Cardinals. As for the starters, Oswald vs Wainwright, well, I see no edge for the Cards there either. Play: Houston +1.20 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Toronto -½ +1.10 over CLEVELAND (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Instead of laying –1.19 on the Jays for the game, it makes more sense to lay a half run in the first five innings with a small take-back. The beautiful thing about this wager is that the Jays will face Cliff Lee coming off a Cy Young award and that makes Lee’s stock extremely overvalued. Lee had a great year and it happens but it’s more than likely he’ll revert back to his old, very average self this year. Even after his remarkable year he still owns a career ERA over 4.00 and a career BAA of .261. The Rangers smacked him around in his opener to the tune of 10 hits and seven runs in just five innings. Then we have the winless Indians facing Roy Halliday and that’s a big psychological disadvantage as well. Halliday is the very last pitcher in the league anyone would want to face in an attempt to pick up its first win of the year. The Jays are 4-1 and they’re seeing beach balls to start the year, as their 37 runs in the first five games will attest to. Play: Toronto in the first five innings -½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Minnesota –½ +1.23 over CHICAGO (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
He’s started 35 games over the last three years, has had multiple surgeries, he’s worn down and is an out-of-shape, 35-yr-old who has zero upside. With good pitching so scarce in this league, teams are willing to take a flyer on just about anyone that’s had success at this level. Fact is, Colon is a complete stiff and his career is over, period. The White Sox have not looked good anywhere and they’ll be facing the wicked arm of Francisco Liriano. It’s almost not fair. This is such a small line that’s it’s actually an insult to Liriano. If he were wearing pinstripes he’d be about a -2.20 favorite over Colon and the South Side. Anyway, Liriano was nasty in his first start despite allowing four runs. He made one error and paid for it but he only allowed four hits in seven innings and didn’t walk a single batter. This is a pitching mismatch with huge value on Liriano at this price. Play: Minnesota in the first five innings –½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units). <o
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