MistaFlava's MLB Saturday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/5-Pack)

The Seattle Mariners are off to a decent start on the season and they managed to continue that good start yesterday with their exciting 5-4 win in Game 1 of this series against the Oakland Athletics. I see a lot of people fading the Mariners this time around because they don't see them winning the first two games of a series against anyone really but think again please. Sure Ichirio is out and it is impossible to replace him in this lineup but the Mariners have done a good job without him anyways as they currently bat .265 on the year and they have had some guys step up to replace both Ichiro and Raul Ibanez (who signed elsewhere in the off-season after being in the TOP 5 for RBI's in Major League Baseball last season). If you are going to take the Mariners and you want some big time cash, take them on the RunLine where they are 5-0 already this season. Seattle has now won their last four games versus AL West opponents and they have won four straight games when facing a left-handed starting pitcher (Outman is a lefty so the Mariners are going to love that). I know Seattle has been somewhat of a bust on the road the past few seasons and that's fine because even though I think they will probably be a bust on the road again in 2009, Oakland is not a tough road opponent and this is a great chance for the Mariners to gain some ground in the Division. Felix Hernandez was horrendous at the end of last season and that was a big problem for the Mariners who were counting on him to lead the team in 2009 but his first start of this season was incredible as he went 8 strong innings of five hit ball in a 6-1 win over Minnesota on opening day. That showed that Hernandez can not only win games away from home but it also showed that Hernandez is in top shape right now and that he is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Seattle has not done well in Oakland in past seasons but the Mariners are 6-2 the last eight times Hernandez has pitched against the Athletics and this is a team he loves to face. At these odds I cannot stay away that is for sure.

The Oakland Athletics are a team I will probably never trust because they cannot seem to ever get a consistent offense going long enough to win close games. Sure they scored four runs yesterday but that was one run too short and the A's found a way to once again lose the first game of a series. I like the fact that a lot of the public is going to be on Oakland in this game for the simple fact that they don't think the Athletics can lose two straight at home against a lowly Mariners team but like I said before, get ready for something different. Pitching has been good for both teams so far this season but the A's starting pitchers have not been all that strong and the Starters have a combined ERA of 5.09 on the season. Josh Outman makes his first start of the season and I don't get why he is getting so much respect here. In four career starts Outman is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.56 and the Athletics are only 1-3 in those games. He started four games last September and although he was brilliant in his first career start, things went downhill after that and he struggled to finish the season. I know Oakland is very good at home against right handed pitchers and they have won seven straight against righties at home but having said that, this is the same Oakland team that has lost 22 of their last 30 when playing Game 2 of a series and this is the same Oakland team that is only 7-20 in their last 27 games versus good pitcher, in other words pitchers with a WHIP better than 1.15 (Hernandez looked way too good in his season debut for me to go against him here). Oakland is also only 2-7 in their last nine games versus AL West opponents and again I think this is a bad spot for them against a pitcher who is looking to turn his career around and live up to expectations. The reason the Mariners are 3-2 right now on the season is because of their solid pitching as both their pen and their starters have combined ERA's below 4.00 and they have gotten the job done. I think both teams are going to score in this game but the Mariners are going to end up with more points on the board in somewhat of a shootout.

These two teams know each other very well, they play each other many times a year and I can tell you right now that despite his struggles against just about everyone else, Felix "King" Hernandez loves playing against Oakland as the Mariners are 6-2 in his last eight starts versus the Athletics. As long as his team can support him with runs like they did against the Twins this past week, Hernandez should cruise to a win despite allowing a few runs here and there and I say that because he pitched two games in Oakland last season. The first was a 4-2 win and the second was a 2-0 loss. Don't expect things to be all that low scoring though as Josh Outman can be good or he can be bad. I don't trust young pitchers all that much early in the season and we all saw what happened to Scott Lewis of the Indians yesterday. He pitched well but made too many mistake against the Jays and it cost him in the end. Dana Demuth is behind home plate this afternoon for this game and for some reason he loves the road team when Oakland plays as the road team is 4-1 in his last five games behind home plate in an Oakland game. Regardless of that stat, Hernandez already showed he has his good stuff locked and loaded this season and this is the best price you will see on him for quite some time. TAKE THE KING!

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 4-0 in their last four games versus a left-handed starter.


Seattle 9, Oakland 5



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The Boston Red Sox are off to quite the bad start to the season but like I explained a few days ago when I bet on Matt Garza and the Rays to beat them at Fenway, now is the time to fade the good teams because they don't quite have their act together as of just now. Much like every other season, the Red Sox have a slow start to the season before picking things up and leading the AL East by at least five games come the beginning of June. This is nothing new, this is nothing out of the norm and I am ready for it to happen again. With their loss against the Angels yesterday, the Sox have now dropped three straight games and are only 1-3 on the season. A loss here means they lose their second series of the season and I am positive that is not what this team had in mind after last season's early exit from the playoffs. Having said that the Red Sox are batting only .235 on the season so far and their pitching has been horrendous with the team combining for a 5.14 ERA on the year so far. Brad Penny is on the mound for the Red Sox this afternoon and I don't know how much you can trust him. I actually think he can have success against the Angels lineup who are for sure going to cool down after their 6 run outburst less than 24 hours ago on an emotional night. Having said that, I don't see Penny getting much offensive support tonight as the Red Sox are up against a stud pitcher on the other side and I have to mention right now that in their last 10 games played in Game 2 of a series, Boston has managed to win only 2 of those 10 games. I have absolutely no faith in Boston at this point of the season, their bats are completely asleep, they are facing a pitcher that has dominated them in the past and I have a feeling Brad Penny is going to find life in the AL East a little bit tougher than life in the National League where he has been his entire career. It's not easy making the transition Penny is making right now but again I think he can pitch well enough in this game to give his guys a chance, just not enough to win the game. Penny has a good outing but the Red Sox bats stay asleep and I think Boston goes into tomorrow's series finale with a lot of question marks and a lot of frustrations.

The Los Angeles Angels are playing with a lot of emotion right now and that is very understandable because of what has happened. We all knew the Angels would be emotional last night with their first game since the death of Nick Adenhart but we did not know they would play as well as they did. I actually expect the same kind of effort in this game with arguably their best pitcher of 2008 taking the mound tonight. The Angels did not look good in their series against Oakland earlier in the week but they sure as hell looked good last night. Joe Saunders is on the mound for the Angels this afternoon and I can tell you right now that Saunders has dominated the Red Sox in his career and the Angels have won their last seven games when Saunders starts against Boston. The Red Sox lineup is actually going to hit a lot better against left handed starters this season than they are against right handed starters but Saunders is just too good fundamentally and it's tough to get guys on base against him, something that is going to be a problem for a Boston team that is batting only .235 on the season. With so many injuries to their rotation, Saunders is the ace for now. I have to say I love this price for the Angels as they are 11-3 in their last 14 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and they are 9-3 in their last 12 games played on Saturday so this is a great spot at home. The Angels are also a whopping 24-11 in their last 35 games versus AL East opponents, they have won 41 of their last 61 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and they are a perfect 6-0 in Joe Saunders last six starts as a home favorite of that very same price range. Saunders is also a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts against AL East opponents, he is an up-and-coming star in this game and the Angels are 25-7 in his last 32 starts that follow a Quality Start the game before. They are also 19-7 in his last 26 home starts and there is not a better combination than betting on Saunders, at home, against an AL East opponent in a daytime game. Expect another masterful performance in this game.

All you really need to know about this game is that Joe Saunders is on the mound for the Angels, he is being relied on to carry this team while they struggle with injuries and tragedies in their starting rotation and I think he is going to be ready to go. Saunders was once again near perfect in his season debut and that is one of the teams only two wins on the year. Saunders has also been perfect almost each and every time he has faced the Red Sox the last few seasons and today should be no different. Most of his mastery against this team has come on the road at Fenway Park but he did also beat Boston 4-2 here earlier last season and I have confidence that he can get the job done in this afternoon's game as well. The Angels are playing with a purpose right now after the death of their young prospect and it has to be mentioned that Boston is only 3-10 in their last 13 meetings with the Angels. This is a very bad spot for the Red Sox, the Angels need some home wins before heading out on a long road trip and Saunders is the guy you want to have money on in this case. The game is going to be close I don't doubt that. Both bullpens have been horrendous which is why I prefer Saunders who can last a lot longer with a much lower pitch count. Chris Capuano is a big time homer umpire and the home team is 5-1 in the last six games he has been behind home plate. Give me some of that Angels money today. CASH IT!

Trend of the Game: The Angels are 7-0 in Joe Saunders last seven starts against Boston.


LA Angels 2, Boston 1




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