Hey guys, can't sleep here and was thinking of possible "systems" for betting baseball.
One came to mind in which you take the run differential of each team and if it is a certain number bet the favorite/underdog at certain odds...
Not too sure how this would work, haven't looked into it at all but:
[RD = Run Differential (Avg Runs For - Avg Runs Against)]
Favorite by 0.5 to .75 RD = Bet up to -134 juice
Favorite by .76 to .99 RD = Bet up to -149 juice
Favorite by 1. to 1.50 RD = Bet up to -174 juice
Favorite by 1.51 to 1.99 RD = Bet up to -199 juice
Favorite by 2. RD or Higher = Bet any juice
I am not quite sure how the breakdown would be for dogs and the odds or whatnot, but I'm figuring if the favorite is only a RD of 0.5 or less or if the dog has the RD in their favor, to bet them.
I have considered calculating RD by:
Overall
Home/Away
vs. LH/RH Starters
Overall Runs For and Starter/Bullpen ERA Combined.
Let me know if you have any thoughts on this system, even if you think it is totally bogus which most systems are. I was just restless this Sunday morning, couldn't fall asleep, and figured i'd waste my time on something.
Thanks
One came to mind in which you take the run differential of each team and if it is a certain number bet the favorite/underdog at certain odds...
Not too sure how this would work, haven't looked into it at all but:
[RD = Run Differential (Avg Runs For - Avg Runs Against)]
Favorite by 0.5 to .75 RD = Bet up to -134 juice
Favorite by .76 to .99 RD = Bet up to -149 juice
Favorite by 1. to 1.50 RD = Bet up to -174 juice
Favorite by 1.51 to 1.99 RD = Bet up to -199 juice
Favorite by 2. RD or Higher = Bet any juice
I am not quite sure how the breakdown would be for dogs and the odds or whatnot, but I'm figuring if the favorite is only a RD of 0.5 or less or if the dog has the RD in their favor, to bet them.
I have considered calculating RD by:
Overall
Home/Away
vs. LH/RH Starters
Overall Runs For and Starter/Bullpen ERA Combined.
Let me know if you have any thoughts on this system, even if you think it is totally bogus which most systems are. I was just restless this Sunday morning, couldn't fall asleep, and figured i'd waste my time on something.
Thanks