MistaFlava's MLB Monday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

The Chicago White Sox are off to a mediocre start this season with a 3-3 record after one week of baseball and I don't know that they are satisfied with that. I say that because all six games the White Sox played were at home and you would expect better from a team playing their first six games of the year at home against the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins. Gavin Floyd is on the mound for the White Sox in his road debut and I don't know that I can back him right now because the White Sox provided him with a grand total of 0 runs of support in his season debut last week in a 2-0 loss to Kansas City and we all know how dormant the White Sox offense can actually be at times. I have to tell you right now that the Tigers have already shown that they are going to engage in shootouts at home this year and it's a big problem that the White Sox are batting only .232 as a team right now. My question to people backing the White Sox in this game would have to be why? Chicago is now 17-38 in their last 55 road games versus a team with a winning record overall and they have won only 15 of their last 51 games as a road underdog. THAT'S PATHETIC! The White Sox are also horrendous against right-handed starters going only 7-19 in their last 26 tries and they are only 3-8 overall in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record on the season. How can you possibly support a team that is 1-7 in their last eight games as an underdog and that have now lost five straight on the road dating back to last season? I have to admit Gavin Floyd has been one of the only bright spots for this team over the course of the last 12 months and he does have past success against AL Central opponents but the White Sox did not support Floyd at the end of last season nor did they support him in his first start of the year this season making the White Sox 1-4 in Gavin Floyd's last five starts. I remember how the White Sox are on the road and believe me when I say you cannot trust these guys away from home.

The Detroit Tigers had a rocky start to this season as they walked into Toronto, lost three of their first four games to the Blue Jays but then returned home and managed to sweep the Texas Rangers who had previously swept the Cleveland Indians at home earlier in the week. So we don't really know what to expect from this Tigers in their AL Central debut tonight because divisional play is a lot different than non-divisional play. What the Tigers have shown so far is that their offense can certainly carry the load around here while they deal with injuries to their starting rotation and while some of their starting pitchers try to workout the kinks. Zach Miner is on the mound this afternoon and Miner is actually the only pitcher who had a decent outing for the Tigers in their visit to Toronto last week. Miner went 5.2 innings, allowed 6 hits but only 1 ER and got the win in his first start of the season. Well done. Now can we trust him at home against a divisional opponent? Why the hell not. Dating back to last season the Tigers are now 6-1 in their last seven home games, they are 4-1 in their last five games as a home favorite, they are 4-1 in their last five games overall versus a right-handed starting pitcher. I know the Tigers have dropped nine straight against AL Central opponents and that will probably scare some people in this game but the Tigers can't lose in this division forever and look for them to be motivated in their divsion opener today. In comes Mr. Miner. The Tigers are 5-1 in his last six starts versus AL Central opponents and for some reason Miner has enjoyed pitching on Mondays as the Tigers are 4-1 in his last five starts on a Monday. Detroit is also 6-2 in Miner's last eight starts in Game 1 of a series and believe me when I say that we could not have a better starting pitcher on the mound for this game. I am backing the Tigers who are red hot at home because they have already shown that the bats can carry this team to big wins and this would be a huge win having lost nine straight to AL Central opponents.

I don't care what problems the Tigers have against AL Central opponents (yes they have lost nine straight)...Zach Miner is their savior. The Tigers are 5-1 in Miner's last six starts versus AL Central opponents and he is just what the divisional baseball doctor ordered for this team in their Division opener today. So which way do you go in this game? I mean the White Sox are a perfect 6-0 in Gavin Floyd's last six starts versus the Tigers and the White Sox pretty much dominated the Tigers in 2008. Having said that, this is a brand new season, Miner is the guy the Tigers want on the mound against AL Central opponents and he pitched well enough in his season debut to give me some hope backing him in this game. We are talking about a White Sox team that is hitting .232 on the season going up against a Tigers team that has won three straight and that are hitting .284 on the season. The White Sox are hitting only .229 against right handed pitchers on the season while the Tigers prefers lefties but have still managed to hit .275 against right handed pitchers. Both bullpens have been mediocre and while the White Sox have the edge in starting pitching in this series, I really like Zach Miner over Gavin Floyd at these odds. The Tigers were 2-0 against the White Sox last season with Zach Miner starting and I think they keep the winning times going at home in this game. Bank it.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 5-1 in Zach Miner's last six games versus AL Central opponents.


Detroit 4, White Sox 3




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The Houston Astros are off to a horrible start in 2009 as they have one single win in six games, they have dropped all three of their road games so far this year and the Astros came nowhere close to winning any of their three games played in St. Louis on the weekend. So why the hell should they start winning now? I know it's only the Pirates but the way this team has been playing I don't think they stand a chance against Pittsburgh's ace starter and I say that because as a team Houston is batting only .250 on the season. Alright I understand they have a lot more success against left-handed pitchers in games this season but where has that taken them anyways? They still have a 1-5 record and have not shown that their pitching can keep them in games at all. I mean as a team the Astros have an ERA of 6.23 and their starting pitchers have been atrocious. On the mound this afternoon is Brian Moehler who was destroyed by the Cubs in his first home start of the season last week and although the Pirates are not a great hitting team, Moehler is not a good pitcher. Houston has been a horrendous wager the last little while (dating back to the end of last season) as they are only 2-5 in their last seven Game 1's of a series and they are now 0-5 in their last five games as a road underdog. The Astros have dropped four straight games against AL Central opponents, they have dropped five straight games as underdogs and unless this team finds some starting pitching in a hurry, they are going to lose a lot of games this season. It should also be mentioned that the Astros are only 1-4 in Brian Moehler's last five starts as an underdog, they are 1-5 in his last six starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and I just don't see him outpitching Zach Duke in this game. Moehler has been horrendous as an underdog, the Astros bullpen has been atrocious at best and like I said before, until these guys face some weak opponents at home, its going to be one hell of a long road trip for this team. Until their pitching gets better and their hitting can keep up, fade these clowns to the bank.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are off to a decent start by their standards as they opened the season with a 3-3 record on the year having played all six games so far on the road. Not bad at all. So this is their home opener and the Pirates are lucky enough to have their ace on the mound for the game. That would explain why they are favored by this much. Had it not been for some outstanding pitching on this team, the Pirates would not have a .500 record heading into the home opener as they managed to hit only .237 in their opening six games while the starting pitchers combined for an ERA of 3.25 in those six games and the bullpen followed suit with a 3.00 ERA in those same games. That's encouraging because we all know the Pirates are going to score some runs against Moehler in this game and on top of that they have Zach Duke on the mound who recorded a big win over the Cardinals on the road last week. Right now the Pirates are a good young team to consider backing at decent odds as they are 5-0 in their last five games that follow a loss the game before, they are 4-1 in their last five games that follow a road trip that lasted at least 7 days or more (they are returning from a very long trip) and they are a whopping 24-8 in their last 32 home games as a favorite. So what you have to understand is that when Vegas makes this team a favorite at home, there is a very good reason and they have certainly deserved it. If you want some more stats I can tell you that Pittsburgh is 16-6 in their last 22 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and that they have won 18 of their last 25 games as a favorite of that very same range. I don't know what it is about Mondays but Zach Duke loves them as the Pirates are a perfect 7-0 in Zach Duke's last seven starts on a Monday and they are 11-5 in their last 16 games when Duke starts following a Quality Start the game before. I know this team has struggled to support Duke in the past and I know his track record as a favorite is not all that good but this is the Home Opener and I think they are going to be pumped up for the win. This is a very good spot to back the Pirates and it's not often I am willing to take these guys so let's make some money here.

You have to ask yourself, how many times are you going to bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates this season? I am guessing not too many for most of you and that is probably wise. Having said that, they have a decent young team, they have their best pitcher on the mound for the Home Opener, he is one of the brighest young arms in baseball and I was actually impressed by the fact that Pittsburgh was able to go 3-3 in their opening six games all played on the road. That tells me this team is ready to possibly win a lot more games than we are used to this season and this is a great place to start. Houston dominated the Pirates last season and yes they are due to breakout the bats but I don't think they can do it against Zach Duke and the Pirates in their home opener. Duke faced the Astros only once at home in 2008 and that was a 5-2 Pirates home win. He then lost to Houston on the road in a 6-0 blowout but again Duke is a lot different at home and I am willing to back him at these odds against a team that is struggling big time at the plate and with their pitching. There is a reason the Astros are 1-5 this season and again with the way some of their starters have been pitching, they don't stand a chance of winning games against decent opposing starters no matter what kind of lineup they face. Sure the Astros were 2-2 against Pittsburgh with Moehler on the mound in 2008 but the Pirates are a much better team this season and it will show in their Home Opener. Big win here.

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 7-0 in Zach Duke's last seven starts on a Monday.


Pittsburgh 7, Houston 3




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The San Francisco Giants are going to be worth it this season but they are only going to be worth it at home and I am done wasting money on these clowns when they played on the road. I know this is a heated rivalry between these teams and I know their fans really don't like each other so this could be one hell of an interesting series if you ask me. Having said that, I am in no way shape or form going to drop one single dollar on Randy Johnson in any game this season because I think he is done with and I think it won't take long for the Giants to realize that regardless of what he did in 2008, he is not going to come close with his numbers this season. The Giants come into this game with a 2-4 record on the season and their only two wins this year came at home against the Milwaukee Brewers (who are absolutely horrendous on the road by the way and always have been). The Giants got their asses handed to them against the Padres on the weekend going 0-3 in that series and looking like the Giants of last season. I have no idea how you think they can come into this game today and do any better against a very good pitchers. I don't care what anyone says, the Giants have won only 23 of their last 73 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they are only 11-24 in their last 35 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Giants are a team I refuse to back on the road after their garbage on the weekend and they are now only 2-6 in their last eight road games as an underdog. As a matter of fact it's a lost cause to back them away from home as they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games, they are 0-4 in their last four games versus a right handed starter and they are just not a good baseball team. The Giants are not all that bad at the plate but their pitching has been horrendous so far and there is no way Randy Johnson walks into this place and has any kind of success against the Dodgers in this game. I am fading this tall piece of crap to the bank and I consider these good enough odds to get the job done.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are supposed to have one hell of a team this season and they are supposed to get some big things done in the regular season and in the playoffs. Having said that, I think they will only go as far as their ace Chad Billingsley takes them and so far it has been so good. The Dodgers are 4-3 to start the season which is not all that bad considering they have not played a single home game yet this season. In other words this is the HOME OPENER for 2009 and seeing how this game is against the hated Giants from the North, you can bet your bottom dollar the crowd is going to be intense and you can bet the Dodgers want to win this game. The boys in blue are coming off a huge win in Arizona yesterday that saw them come from behind and pull off some nice little bit of magic. The Dodgers, despite their struggles at the plate, were able to walk into San Diego and take two games out of a possible four from the Padres which is good considering how well the Padres have pitched so far this season. You cannot go against the Dodgers in this game because they love hitting left handed pitchers and Randy Johnson is a southpaw. The Dodgers are actually 13-4 in their last 17 games versus a left handed starter and they have won 24 of their last 32 home games as a favorite. Again, you cannot go against them here. The Dodgers are also 20-8 in their last 28 home games, they are 17-8 in their last 25 games as a favorite and I think this is a very good spot for them as long as their bullpen can support Billingsley. The Dodgers are a perfect 5-0 in Chad Billingsley's last five starts against NL West opponents, they are 6-1 in his last seven starts as a home favorite, they are 5-1 in his last six starts in Game 1 of a series and the Dodgers are 6-2 in Billingsley's last eight home starts. I think this is a perfect spot to back him at home here where he loves to pitch and where he has dominated opponents from the AL West. The Dodgers are one of those teams that can often screw you over when you bet on them and screw you when you bet against them but this should be a win in their Home Opener.

So these two teams hate each other and that is not a secret...believe me on that. Having said that, a lot of cappers like to argue that the odds should not be blown up in one way or ther other because all intangibles are thrown out the window in this case and both teams are considered equal regardless of who is on the mound. Well I completely disagree with that. Neither team has established themselves at the plate as of right now and neither team has really shown that they can score more than 3-4 runs per game. So we turn to pitching where the Giants have a combined team ERA of 5.12 despite getting some good innings in from their bullpen. In other words their starting pitchers have combined for a 6.52 ERA while the Dodgers starting pitchers have combined for an ERA of 3.68 while the Dodgers as a team have an ERA of 3.45. Billingsley had one home start against the Giants in 2008 and that was a 4-0 win at these very same odds of -180 for the MoneyLine. Billingsley has six career starts versus the Giants and the Dodgers are 4-2 in those games with the only two losses coming on the road so that makes them 4-0 lifetime at home against the Giants when Billingsley starts. Randy Johnson has pitched in this ballpark only twice since the 2004 season and this is not the same Randy Johnson of years past...I just don't see it happening for him in this game. Not in the Home Opener.

Trend of the Game: Los Angeles is 5-0 in Chad Billingsley's last five starts versus NL West opponents.


LA Dodgers 6, San Francisco 1




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Just trying to finish the day back in the money. Posted some NBA after going 4-1 ATS last night and would love to finish bases 4-1 after the Detroit fiasco. Never saw that disaster performance by Miner coming. Good Luck to everyone tonight.
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