Team Total: Cincinnati Over 4 Runs @2 Units -105
The Reds offense looking really good that far and they hit for an solid average with lots of power. Parra started good in Frisco, but then lost it once again 2nd down the order and was roughed up by Cincinnati last year (8.27 ERA in 2008 during 3 games, 2 of which he started, 16.1IP with 15ER, and in Miller Park 6.1IP with 5R, 4 of them ER).
Add in the wind, that is blowing out with ~15mph towards RF, in combination with Parras high WHIP (multi-run HRs?) and a mediocre bullpen, that probably has to pitch 3+ Innings and the Reds should at least push this wager.
Parra was better at home in 2008, but even there he gave up 4 runs to the Reds and I think their offense has improved while doesn't seem to be at 100% Parra yet and the cold weather in MIL could affect his ability to grip his breaking ball, which he needs to have going to be at his best.
BOS @ OAK: Total Over 7.5 @1 Unit -120
The wind is blowing out with more than 20mph towards RF. Dice was once again HR-prone in his 1st start and OAK has some pop (especially towards RF thanks to Giambi/Cust) and did score quite OAK in their first games.
Bostons offense hasn't get going yet and they had worse road numbers in 2008. But they roughed up Eveland in 2008 and Eveland lacked velocity in his 1st start and seems to need a few more outings to get his fastball really going. The red sox also have lots of power towards RF and even with McAfee Colloseum being one of the most pitcher friendly parks thanks to its spacious foul-territories, the wind should help some balls to leave the yard tonight.
CLE @ KC: KC -0.5 (1st 5 Innings) @1 Unit -102
Davis finished strong in 2008 and also had a great 1st start in 2009. His h2h numbers aren't that strong against CLE, but he really improved in 2008 and his lone start back then was solid.
Pavano was awful in his first start for the tribe and I don't see him improve much tonight since he was just plain bad and his results had nothing to do with a small strike zone or bad luck...His velocity is down and he has no movement on his pitches. Kansas' offense lacks some pop but they have some good contact hitters and speed and they can manifacture runs.
The Reds offense looking really good that far and they hit for an solid average with lots of power. Parra started good in Frisco, but then lost it once again 2nd down the order and was roughed up by Cincinnati last year (8.27 ERA in 2008 during 3 games, 2 of which he started, 16.1IP with 15ER, and in Miller Park 6.1IP with 5R, 4 of them ER).
Add in the wind, that is blowing out with ~15mph towards RF, in combination with Parras high WHIP (multi-run HRs?) and a mediocre bullpen, that probably has to pitch 3+ Innings and the Reds should at least push this wager.
Parra was better at home in 2008, but even there he gave up 4 runs to the Reds and I think their offense has improved while doesn't seem to be at 100% Parra yet and the cold weather in MIL could affect his ability to grip his breaking ball, which he needs to have going to be at his best.
BOS @ OAK: Total Over 7.5 @1 Unit -120
The wind is blowing out with more than 20mph towards RF. Dice was once again HR-prone in his 1st start and OAK has some pop (especially towards RF thanks to Giambi/Cust) and did score quite OAK in their first games.
Bostons offense hasn't get going yet and they had worse road numbers in 2008. But they roughed up Eveland in 2008 and Eveland lacked velocity in his 1st start and seems to need a few more outings to get his fastball really going. The red sox also have lots of power towards RF and even with McAfee Colloseum being one of the most pitcher friendly parks thanks to its spacious foul-territories, the wind should help some balls to leave the yard tonight.
CLE @ KC: KC -0.5 (1st 5 Innings) @1 Unit -102
Davis finished strong in 2008 and also had a great 1st start in 2009. His h2h numbers aren't that strong against CLE, but he really improved in 2008 and his lone start back then was solid.
Pavano was awful in his first start for the tribe and I don't see him improve much tonight since he was just plain bad and his results had nothing to do with a small strike zone or bad luck...His velocity is down and he has no movement on his pitches. Kansas' offense lacks some pop but they have some good contact hitters and speed and they can manifacture runs.