Sekrah's Tuesday Baseball (3-3, -1.40) [Big 3 unit play]

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Nov 19, 2005
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Yesterday: 1-1 (-1.40)
Season: 3-3 (-1.40)


3 Unit

Yankees +105 - This line is insane IMO. Matt Garza is a fine pitcher, but he don't got the strikeout rate of AJ Burnett nor the control (BB/9). Sabermetrics indicate Garza had above average luck in his "breakout" year last year. This is a big play for me. I see Garza getting knocked out no later than the 5th inning and Burnett giving up no more than 1 through 7.



1.5 Unit

Cardinals -1.5 +110 - Carp is back! His two seam fastball was electric in the season opener and he was in complete control of his curveball. The start was masterful. I know it was just the Pirates, but the D-backs lineup isn't exactly stellar either. On the other side Max Scherzer has some good strikeout stuff, but he has trouble with control and Cards do not swing at bad pitches (Especially Big Albert). I see Cardinals putting up 5+ runs in this one, more than enough for the runline with Carp on the mound.
 

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I'll give you 5-1 that Burnett gives up over 1.5 runs in the game. Minimum 5 innings pitched.
 

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I'll take a 1-1, +1.65 day on the excellent analysis.

Too bad Carp went down with a lame injury or it coulda been a real nice day.
 

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