Best "Fades" and "Follows" for the next few weeks??

DJax24 · Apr 18, 2009

Hey guys...my picks thread says more about my strategy (as some may or may not know), but basically to start the year I tried to pick some overrated teams to fade and underrated teams to follow for a few weeks. It worked very well and I made some nice profits. Unfortunately the last 2-3 days it has been about even because I probably shouldve have jumped off the badnwagon on a few of them. Since it worked so well, I'm trying to carry it out for a longer period of time and possibly the whole season. Right now I'm looking for some assistance and would love to hear some suggestions.

If you wanna help out, I would really appreciate it BUT also ask that you tell me why you think the team is a good "fade" or "follow" for the upcoming week (or possibly longer). I'm gonna make my own decisions in the end, but I want to get some good reasoning and opinions from all kinds of people who may be more familiar with certain teams than I am. Thanks in advance to anyone who offers their opinion...lets work together and come up with some good selections! :toast:

seanm0520 · Apr 18, 2009

Yankees. At least until A-rod comes back. I'm not sure much explanation is needed. Pitching, pitching, pitching. Beyond CC & AJ you're lucky to get 5 decent innings out of anyone and the bullpen is atrocious. They've got Mo but they've got to actually get to him.

DJax24 · Apr 18, 2009

Thanks sean, theyre definitely on my list to consider already...god they suck right now huh? lol

seanm0520 · Apr 18, 2009

Yes they do, haha. Unfortunately I'd also put my beloved Phillies on a fade list as well. With a reeling Hamels, and only half the bullpen being worth their weight in anything, I expect struggles right up until June or so.

1968 · Apr 18, 2009

fade the RANGERS, complete mess of a team.

seanm0520 · Apr 18, 2009

I wouldn't be surprised to see Florida start tailing off either. How many of these come-from-behind luck wins can they really pull?

DeezNuts · Apr 18, 2009

I think Atlanta would be a good fade until Chipper and Escobar get back.

DJax24 · Apr 18, 2009

Ya I made the mistake of jumping on the Phillies the last couple days (not one of my original teams)...but I'm staying on them tonight at least and tomorrow too if they win. I'll re-evaluate them for Monday though.

As far as the Rangers go, I agree theyre pretty bad and gonna struggle big time on the road. The only issue is I know a lot of people will feel that way so I don't feel like I'll quite have the value I'm looking for in a "fade" selection. But you never know, I'll be checkin them out as well to see how the lines are this week.

Deez Nuts, Braves are a team I thought about before the weekend and am strongly looking at now (just hoping I'm not a little too late). Depending on their lines Monday/Tuesday it may be a solid pick...

Thanks for the input guys, keep it coming everybody :103631605

seanm0520 · Apr 18, 2009

On the rise:

Athletics
Cleveland
CWS
NYM

On the decline:

NYY
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Florida
St. Louis
Colorado
Milwaukee

Obviously, just my 2 cents.

DJax24 · Apr 18, 2009

Thanks for the input sean, I'll be doing my own research and stuff as well but would like to get a good starting point.

Any other suggestions guys?

Ezdoesit · Apr 18, 2009

Team to fade
Phillies
Same problem as the Yanks, no pitching. Hamels hasn't hit 90w/ his fastball yet this year, even lidge looks hitable. Myers is back to his mid season form, which is terrible, Moyer won the WS and has nothing left to play for, Blanton is just as bad as myers, and whoever else fills in is terrible. On the other side they could possibly win games 11-10 because there bats r very good. but i would suggest having to put up 10 runs to get a win will start gettting old, and unless they make a trade, there is no fix for how bad the SP is.

On another note to Follow
Phillies over's. For the same reasons i just stated.

C-Gold · Apr 18, 2009

Looking at Nationals/Indians.

Both teams started out horrible, maybe now that the Indians put up big numbers vs the yanks you won't see it as much, but I'd bet that if you play these two teams + money for the next 30 games or so that you would come out ahead.

I would say play florida early in the year, but everybody is so on them now that I'd say fade them.

Ezdoesit · Apr 18, 2009

One more thing to add, since the Phillies won the World Series, the moneyline on those games will be higher than they should be, so your definately getting your money's worth. Same w/ Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers etc, lines are always juiced. If u play teams like marlins, Seattle, etc, you will notice there lines never get above -150, when the phills are minus 200 tonight w/ a loosing record playing against a team w/ a winning record, and Myers the terrible is on the mound.

DJax24 · Apr 18, 2009

yes very true on the Phillies, I'll be lookin into them. Thanks Ez.

C-Gold, I faded Indians and tailed Marlins right from the start with great results. I dropped off the Marlins finally today due to lines finally cacthing up to them. Indians are intriguing as a follow now too. Thanks guys

Keep the opinions comin!

BadCo · Apr 18, 2009

Talk about tough luck this season.

At this rate they might as well name themselves the Salt Lake City Bees of Anaheim.

Halos put Moseley on DL, recall 2 others

Print Share <script type="text/javascript"> var stobj = SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title:"Angels%20put%20Moseley%20on%20DL%20with%20elbow%20irritation", url:"http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4080202", published: "2009-04-18" }); stobj.attachButton(document.getElementById("espnstlink")); </script>
<cite class="source"> Associated Press
</cite>
  MINNEAPOLIS -- The Los Angeles Angels have placed right-hander Dustin Moseley on the 15-day disabled list with elbow irritation.
The team purchased the contract of left-hander Dan Davidson from Triple-A Salt Lake on Saturday.
The Angels also recalled right-hander Rich Thompson from Salt Lake to fill the roster spot opened when Vladimir Guerrero was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Friday with a torn pectoral muscle.
Both pitchers will work out of Los Angeles' bullpen.
Angels manager Mike Scioscia originally planned to bring up a position player to replace Guerrero, but Moseley lasted just three innings in his Friday start and five relievers were forced to work in Los Angeles' 11-9 loss to the Minnesota Twins.

DJax24 · Apr 18, 2009

Thanks BadCo, I actually have been fading Angels all year so far to pretty good results. I thought their bullpen and lineup were overrated because rotation had covered it up last couple years. Without Santana, Lackey, Escobar, etc I figured they could struggle (at least compared to expectations).

C-Gold · Apr 18, 2009

This angles bullpen is god awful.

Old smoky darren oliver pitches 4 innings... thanks... don't work too hard mr. major leaguer.

so then mike scocia brings in a guy with an 8 era. He throws 10 pitches, 2 for strikes with 2 walks, then gives up the hits... mike s. has nobody in the pen warming up, being the bull headed jerk that he is. 4 runs later he brings on some other bum that gives up the 5th run with a wild pitch... theyse jerkoffs couldn't even throw strikes!

I like the top down approach though, pick your teams to follow/fade rather than looking at the daily pitchers etc. Fade the teams that everybody loves, bet on the teams nobody wants.

DJax24 · Apr 18, 2009

Ya it was just something I came up with a couple days before the season and figured worth a try and it worked beautifully. Just had 5-6 games per night and hopin for 3-2 or 4-2 (generally all dogs) and actually ended up with a couple nights even better than that. Lately, some of the odds and teams have leveled out so I'm looking for a few changes. We'll see if its something I can continue all season or just a pre-season type of thing. It should be interesting @)

Thanks for the advice, Fading the Angels is one of the few originals that I'm gonna keep rolling with.

SelectiveAscent · Apr 18, 2009

Fade yankees and/or Phillies.... the phillies have now given up 24 HR on the season

DJax24 · Apr 18, 2009

Thanks, lookin at both...especially Yankees.

Guys, two things:

1. The common traits of the 3 teams I successfully faded to start the year had overrated offenses AND bad/overrated pitching (especially bullpen). So please, if you see any teams that fit both of those criteria, let me know because I can't say I've seen every team yet at this point obviously.

2. I've gottena lot of fade requests, which are much appreciated because they are very helpful. But does anybody have any "follows"? In this case, I'm looking for team(s) that have an underrated rotation, a good bullpen, and enough offense to get by. BUT most importantly the public/Vegas linemakers havent completely caught onto them yet in your opinion.

Let me know suggestions for either one of those points. Thanks alot guys, keep the info coming in! lol