four today w/analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-2.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">20</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">18</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+9.08 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2009)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">20</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">18</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+9.08 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON +1.08 over Cincinnati
The Reds have major offensive problems and they’ll face a pitcher they’ve never seen and those two things combined make them rather unappealing as the chalk. In fact, in its 10 games to start the year, the Reds have scored two runs or less in five of them and they’re dead last in the majors with a team batting average of.208. Also consider that they’ve played half their games at home, which is one of the top three hitter’s parks in the bigs. The Astros got off to a slow start but they’re coming around with three wins in four games and there’s no denying the fact that they’re much more dangerous offensively. Houston will send out Felipe Paulino, a once highly touted prospect that had some setbacks last season, specifically arm troubles, but appears to be back on track now. Paulino has started two games this season for the Round Rock Express with the last one coming on April 14. In those two starts covering 12 innings, he’s allowed one run for an ERA of 0.75. It’s no coincidence that he’s been called up to face the Reds. It’s the perfect situation for him. Anyway, this one is more about playing against the Reds as a favorite on the road, as they’re just not deserving of that billing right now. Play: Houston +1.08 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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Arizona +1.01 over SAN FRANCISCO (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
It’s his 23rd year in the majors, he’s thrown an incredible 4048 career innings, he’s started 588 games and he’ll be 46-years old in September. Yeah, Randy Johnson is a freak but he’s not a crafty vet like Jamie Moyer who relies on finesse as oppose to blowing away guys. In fact, the only reason he’s still pitching is because he desperately wants 300 wins (he’s at 295 right now) as bad as any pitcher has ever wanted it and he’ll pitch to 50 if he has to. In two starts this season covering just 8.2 innings, Johnson has surrendered 12 hits, 11 earned runs and four bombs. Furthermore, the Giants are struggling miserably from the plate so big run support for Johnson is likely out of the question. The Snakes will send out young Max Scherzer to the hill and he has a ton of potential. His slider is wicked and he has a fastball that tops out in the high 90’s. He had a decent first start, as he went five full against the Cards and gave up just five hits and three earned runs. He’ll take a big step down in class here and thus, the D-Backs offer up some very decent value as a dog in this spot. Play: Arizona in the first five innings +1.01 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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PITTSBURGH +1.04 over Atlanta
Why not the Pirates? The Braves are seeing BB’s right now and in fact, have not scored a single run in the first two games of this series. Atlanta has also lost five in a row and things are not about to get any easier here. Something clicked in for the Pirates Zach Duke. This guy was being billed as a future superstar but he’s struggled somewhat at this level in his four-year career but he did show the occasional sign of brilliance. However, this year he’s looked extremely sharp in two starts, throwing a complete game shutout against the Astros and allowing just one runs to the Cards. That’s one run allowed in 15.1 innings and it came against a couple of strong offensive teams. The Pirates are also at home here, they have a better record than the Braves, its best pitcher thus far is going and they’re playing with a lot of confidence right now. Play: Pittsburgh +1.04 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Detroit +1.00 over SEATTLE (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
The Tigers offense is one of the best in the business and they’ll be facing one of the more hittable pitchers in the league here. Carlos Silva has pitched over 1000 innings in his career and has a career BAA of .303. He got smacked around in his season debut at Minnesota and then rebounded with a strong outing against the Angels. The opposition has gone yard on him three times already in juts 12 frames and that’s a huge concern. The chances of Silva, a guy who was tooth and nails to nail down the fifth spot in the M’s rotation, having back-to-back strong outings is remote at best. The Tigers will send out rookie Rick Porcello, who made his season debut against the sizzling Blue Jays. Porcello will find the line-up of the M’s much more to his liking and although his pitching line does not suggest it, Porcello looked very strong against the Jays. In fact, he had a 2-1 lead going to the fifth inning before giving up a run in the fifth and then running into trouble in the sixth before being yanked. The good news is that he walked just one and looked terrific in the first four frames. He’ll learn from that and let’s not forget that he was the Tigers top pick in the ’07 draft, had a dazzling spring and looked much better than his line suggests in his major league debut. Tigers pen is a mess, thus the five-inning wager. Play: Detroit in the first five innings +1.00 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
 

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