three today with analysis +1 boxing

sherwood · Apr 20, 2009

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-4.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">21</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">21</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+5.08 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2009)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">21</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">21</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">3</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+5.08 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

WASHINGTON +1.20 over Atlanta (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Wow, the Nationals are a dismal 1-10 and they could be out of this thing by the end of April. Thing is, they’re so much better than that and they’re so much better than they were a year ago. The good news is that they’re scoring runs and they’re taking leads late into games and with any help in the bullpen they would have swept the Marlins. In fact, in all three games over the weekend the Nats had a going to the ninth inning and lost them all. They’ll send rookie Jordan Zimmerman to the mound and he’s considered one of the top three pitching prospects in the business. In 14 spring innings Zimmerman struck out 20 batters, walked two and had an ERA of 3.14. Derek Lowe has had one good outing and one not so good outing. He’s a quality pitcher with lots of upside but he’s also a pitcher that has one good pitch and if it’s not working he’s in big trouble. Anyway, this one is all about playing Zimmerman and taking back a tag with the Nats in five innings, as Washington will offer up some strong value over the next few games because they’re off to a brutal start and the tag on the opposition gets inflated because of it. Play: Washington in the first five innings +1.20 (Risking 2 units). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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ARIZONA/Colorado over 10½ -1.08
When I first looked at this line I had to double-check it because it seemed to be way, way too high. Hell, games in Texas with two AL teams going at it come in at 10½ and it’s not like these are two offensive juggernauts either. In fact, these are two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Snakes are 29th out of 30 teams with a .215 team batting average while the Rockies are 27th out of 30 with a .230 batting average. Furthermore, Jason Marquis has been dazzling in both his starts, lasting seven full in each one and posting an ERA of 1.93 and that came against the Phillies and Cubs, two of the better hitting clubs in the NL. John Garland has had one very good start in two tries thus far. The Rockies have never seen him before and that sure isn’t in the hitter’s favor. So, what we have here is two teams seeing BB’s playing in the highest posted total in the league today. The under seems too easy and that’s precisely what the books want you to think. They’re begging us to play it under therefore I’m playing it over. Play: Colorado/Arizona over 10½ -1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2). <o

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San Diego +1.44 over PHILADELPHIA (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
It appears as though the World Series hangover is a real thing. The Phillies are 5-6 and it seems like every win they’ve picked up has been a battle. Now Jamie Moyer will take the mound and he’s pitching like he’s 47 but who’s counting? Moyer has smacked around by Washington and Atlanta and this isn’t the greatest park to pitch in when you’re almost 50. Besides, the Padres are 9-4 and they’re also 5-1 against southpaws. Kevin Correia was good against the Mets and Dodgers, lasting a combined 11 innings and allowing three runs in each start. It was nothing dazzling by any stretch but this guy is getting stronger with each start after missing most of last year with stomach issues and shedding 12 pounds. Play: San Diego in the first five innings +1.44 (Risking 2 units).

CalvinTy · Apr 20, 2009

sherwood said:
In fact, these are two of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Snakes are 29th out of 30 teams with a .215 team batting average while the Rockies are 27th out of 30 with a .230 batting average. Furthermore, Jason Marquis has been dazzling in both his starts, lasting seven full in each one and posting an ERA of 1.93 and that came against the Phillies and Cubs, two of the better hitting clubs in the NL. John Garland has had one very good start in two tries thus far. The Rockies have never seen him before and that sure isn’t in the hitter’s favor. So, what we have here is two teams seeing BB’s playing in the highest posted total in the league today. The under seems too easy and that’s precisely what the books want you to think. They’re begging us to play it under therefore I’m playing it over.

I understand your reasoning but you haven't really presented your case for the Over 10.5. As a matter of fact, you have stated that Marquis has been dazzling and that Garland has had one very good start, along with Rockies never seeing him before. So what makes it an Over 10.5 game? It's not in COL as that would have made more sense, but it's in ARI.

Just trying to understand here, so hope no offense taken in my comment.

Cheers,

* CalvinTy

sherwood · Apr 20, 2009

There is no case for an over so the next question is why is this line so high??

Can you say trap??

That's the reason...the books are begging for under money.

Pure trap, plain and simple.

on a side note...
Sorry, there is no boxing play...error.

chriscol · Apr 20, 2009

where is the boxing play?...oh, just have seen your post. BOL tonight

CalvinTy · Apr 20, 2009

Thanks for your reply, sherwood. I actually was surprised to find more tidbits that may suggest the game to go Over instead of the "obvious Under". For instance, we knew Garland had a bad start against StL his last time out (7R, 7H, 5 BB in 3 2/3 innings).

While Marquis have been good, I saw these interesting stats:

"Conor Jackson had Sunday off. He is batting just .125 (3-for-24) in his last seven games. Jackson, though, is 4-for-11 with two homers lifetime against Marquis. Chris Young has three hits in nine career at-bats versus Marquis -- all home runs."

In the last 3 years, at Chase Field, Marquis is 0-3 with 5.40 ERA (ESPN link). So that's interesting.

I think I'll see how this goes playing the Over 10.5 and hope to see both ARI and COL bats warming up tonight against those pitchers.

GL!

* CalvinTy

MacroLimit · Apr 20, 2009

I like your train of thought on the CO/AZ game. I just found this statistic:

"Arizona (4-8), batting an NL-worst .211 (15-for-71) with runners in scoring position, has scored two or fewer runs eight times this season."

But when these 2 teams meet it's usually a high-scoring affair, let's hope the trend continues.

I'm on the over.