four today w/analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-1.52 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">22</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">24</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">4</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+1.40 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2009)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">22</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">24</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">4</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+1.40 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.




NY Mets –1.07 over ST. LOUIS
Joel Pineiro is 2-0, which is nice but he’s one of the more misleading 2-0 pitchers in the league. His BAA in two starts is .354 and his ERA is 5.40 and that’s after facing Arizona and Houston. Now he’ll have to face the big bats of the Mets and chances are he won’t be so lucky. Pineiro is a mediocre pitcher at best and the Cards are not going to keep winning at this pace, no way no how, as they’re just not a .600+ team. The Mets will counter with John Maine, who is 0-1 in two starts but has a BAA of .243, which is more than a 100 points better than Pineiro’s. Maine has struck out nine batters in 10 innings and it’s also worth noting that he favors this park, as his 2.46 ERA and .195 BAA at this venue will attest to. There’s a reason why the books made the Mets a favorite here and it’s because they, too, know that Pineiro is a bad inning waiting to happen. Play: NY Mets –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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Los Angeles +1.07 over HOUSTON
One of Randy Wolfs’ favorite parks has always been Minute Maid. In six career starts here covering 37.1 innings, he’s allowed just nine earned runs for an ERA of 2.17. Over that same span the Astros hit a measly .229 against him. Also consider that in two games this year against southpaws the Astros are 0-2. Oh, and in three starts this season the opposition is hitting just .188 against Wolf. He’s also struck out 17 hitters in 18.1 frames. Roy Oswalt’s numbers keep declining and last year he went 4-4 with a 5.61 ERA in his first 11 starts. This year in three starts his ERA is 4.26 and the opposition is hitting .300 off him. The Dodgers had a little setback yesterday losing its first game in nine and they’re just the better team with a much better offense. Play: Los Angeles +1.07 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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San Diego -½ +1.12 over SAN FRANCISCO (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
This one is all about wagering against the worst starter in baseball and it’s not close. In fact, the signing of Barry Zito to a contract off the charts is going to be recorded as one of the worst signings in the history of sports and there are plenty of those. Zito has lost completely lost it. His fastball tops out at about 85 MPH, he can’t throw strikes, his mechanics are a mess and he was whacked in both his starts thus far, once in San Diego when they knocked him out in the fourth inning. The absolute only reason that Zito is in there is because the Giants have to pay him over 18 million this season and they’ll keep throwing him out there. Pitching at home is not a benefit either, as the pressure is greater and he usually gets booed off the field. Zito has no chance for success and may not win a game all year. Play: San Diego -½ +1.12 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Chicago –1.05 over BALTIMORE (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
You really have to like Chicago’s chances here, as they’ll send out John Danks and his dazzling stuff. Danks is the real deal so capitalize now because you’re going to be laying a lot more juice than this on him as the season progresses. Danks has allowed a ridiculous five hits over his first 12 frames and over that stretch he’s whiffed 13. It’s not a fluke either. He has filthy stuff, he’s a southpaw and he is going to be one of the premier pitchers in this league for years to come. The O’s are vulnerable against lefties and the Danks they saw in the past is nothing like the one they’ll see today. Jeremy Guthrie is an ugly 2-0 in three starts but he’s not a great pitcher by any stretch. He’s been lucky in that he has a high WHIP of 1.62, which means he’s stranding a lot of runners. The league is also hitting .292 against him and he’s just not pitching good enough not to lose games. Give a big edge to the White Sox on the mound and frankly, this is a small price to pay to wager on Danks. Play: Chicago –1.05 in the first five innings (Risking 2.10 units).
 

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