MistaFlava's MLB Thursday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

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MistaFlava's 2009 MLB Baseball Record: 24-34 (-81.30 Units)

I am off to a horrendous start in baseball but I am not concerned because things always seem to even out a bit later and the season is very long. I am going to continue posting NBA, MLB, NHL and some tennis and hopefully things get better in baseball. Once we get out of April I think we are going to be just fine and it's time to make some cash before the summer months come rolling around and we are begging for football.

I am also contemplating heading back into the world of NBA Betting but it's late in the season, I have not established myself in the pro hoops betting ranks and it would be tough to get into the swing of things right now at the end of the season and right before the playoffs. I am pretty sure I am not going to post NBA Picks but that might change and I might do the playoffs We'll see I guess.

The key to winning baseball bets early in the season is to stay focused on which teams and which pitchers are finding early season chemistry. Some teams favored to win it all might start 2-10 or they might start 10-0. Don't forget that good pitchers are good pitchers and bad pitchers bad pitchers regardless of Spring Training.

1 Unit = $100


I am a streaky capper and everyone knows it. You can tail, fade or simply watch what I do. But in the end, I am always a winner and that is all that matters.

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Thursday, April 23


Gil Meche vs. Anthony Reyes


View attachment 7071 Kansas City Royals ML +100 (10 Units) View attachment 7070

The Kansas City Royals know these games against Divisional opponents mean the most and this is where they need to show that they can win games and not be a bunch of pushovers. Well so far so good as the Royals have been in the mix of things in both games so far this series losing Game 1 by one run and then winning Game 2 last night on a super performance by Brian Bannister. Now they have their ace Gil Meche on the mound for the rubber match and believe it or not this is a huge game for both teams. Meche has actually pitched very well in his three starts so far this season and the team is 2-1 in the games he has pitched. He has an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of only 1.15 in those games and the Royals have supported him with 6.7 runs per game which is just what this team needs...a lot of run support for their pitchers. Kansas City has been tremendous in their last five games played on a Thursday where they are 5-0 in those games and the Royals are an impressive 12-2 in their last 14 starts versus a right handed pitcher. They are also a very impressive 13-4 in their last 17 games played on the road and they have won 12 of their last 16 games as a road underdog which is as impressive as it gets really. The Royals are playing well right now because they have won 10 of their last 14 games versus AL Central opponents and dating back to last season this team has managed to win 21 of their last 30 games which has me believing that if their bats can continue hitting, this team is going to contend very soon for some Divisional Titles and it all starts here. With Gil Meche on the mound I have all the confidence in the world that these guys can win as the Royals are 5-1 in Meche's last six starts dating back to last season and they are 4-1 in his last five starts as an underdog. When Gil Meche is on the mound the Royals are always going to have a chance to win and I love the underdog tag here because the Royals are 7-3 in Meche's last 10 starts as an underdog and that is all you really need to know. I don't think the Royals need all that many runs to win this game because Meche should have another solid performance and I see him winning this game to add to his already very good season totals.

The Cleveland Indians are probably one of the most powerful teams in Major League Baseball right now when it comes to offensive prowness but for some reason they seem to only manage temporary offensive explosions and at other times this offense looks like they don't have a clue what they are doing out there. I mean with that kind of offense it should not matter how bad your pitching and a lot of people are going to back Cleveland here with the assumption that they cannot possibly be held to 0 runs like they were in Game 2 of this series but like I told you before...when this team struggles they struggle and when their bats are hitting their bats are hitting. Right now the Indians are batting only .241 at home and they have the shaky Anthony Reyes on the mound today. I know Reyes has some good stuff but he has not been consistent enough for me to back him (although I need a Quality Start and will have him in Fantasy Baseball). Had this been any other season and had this been later this summer, I would advise to never go against the Indians at home because they don't lose many games here but home has been a problem for these guys early in the season and I am not ready to forget about that. Cleveland has won only 2 of their last 7 games when they have been favored by -110 to -150 and I would like to point out that unlike the Royals, the Indians have struggled against righties and the team is only 3-10 in their last 13 games versus right handed starters. I know these guys are hitting a lot better the last week than they were the first week of the season but it's still tough for me to back them on anything against a good right handed starter like Meche knowing that they have won only 3 of their last 13 games versus a right handed starting pitcher and that is ridiculous. The Indians bullpen has been horrendous at home with an ERA of 9.20 on the season so unless Reyes can find a way to get through a full six or seven innings, the Indians are going to have problems in the late innings of this game. I have no confidence in this offense at home against a righty and until the betting public learns that they are not that good against good righties, I am going to continue taking the Royals and hoping I don't get screwed by Kyle Farnsworth.

Alright so this is a huge game for both teams, the betting odds are great and I am guessing with this being a Thursday afternoon that a lot of people are going to be betting on this game. Right now I see things split down the middle at 50/50 in terms of who is taking the Indians and who is taking the Royals. I have been on Kansas City twice this season and in both games they have been winning halfway through only to have Farnsworth come in and blow both games. PLEASE NO FUCKIN KYLE FARNSWORTH IN THIS GAME TODAY, I AM BEGGING YOU! Meche has had a up and down career pitching in Cleveland as a member of the Royals winning two of the four starts he has made in this ballpark but two of his starts here in 2008 saw the veteran righty pitch several scoreless innings and I think he is in good enough form to pitch well again here. Reyes has been fantastic in all his pitching appearances versus the Royals (three starts and three wins in his career against Kansas City) but I just don't trust the bullpen for this Indians team and I think they are going to come in this game blow it up. Kansas City has now won four of their last five meetings in Cleveland and they have taken 6 of their last 8 games overall against the Indians. John Hirschbeck is the home plate umpire for this game and let me tell you right now that the road team has won four of his last five games behind home plate and that could be huge in the late innings of this game. I am going to try my luck with the Royals one more time here and hope I don't get screwed.

Trend of the Game: Kansas City is 12-2 in their last 14 games versus a right handed starting pitcher.


Kansas City 5, Cleveland 2




More selections to come...
 
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Thursday, April 23


David Bush vs. Cole Hamels


View attachment 7072 Philadelphia Phillies ML -172 (25 Units) View attachment 7073

***PLAY OF THE DAY***

The Milwaukee Brewers are and always have been one of my favorite teams to fade on the road and I will continue making money as long as these guys are playing away from home and losing games. One of the biggest reasons I love the Phillies in this game is because Milwaukee won last night, a very rare road win, and there is no way in hell they are going to take two straight on the road, let alone two straight against one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, let alone against the defending champions who are finally starting to play some decent baseball. Milwaukee's win last night as actually their first win in Philadelphia since May 17, 2007 as they went a pathetic 0-6 here in 2008 and that win in 2007 was actually their only win of the last three seasons in this ballpark. So again the win last night was shocking and there is no chance in hell they are going to win two straight. Believe me on that please. David Bush is on the mound for the Brewers (who are 0-2 when he starts this season) and he has been horrendous getting rocked in both outings and pitching only 13.1 total innings in his two starts. I was talking about how bad this team is on the road and you have to know that they have won only 30 of their last 94 games on the road as underdogs and they don't stand a chance against a left handed starter as they have won only 4 of their last 14 versus lefties. This is a team that has won only 5 of their last 20 games on the road, they are 7-20 in their last 27 games as an underdog and this is just a bad spot to back them. The Brewers are not only bad on the road but they are bad against NL East Division opponents going only 3-13 in their last 16 games versus teams from this Division and we are talking about a team that has won only 1 of their last six games versus a left handed starting pitcher. Milwaukee is a pathetic 0-8 in their last eight games following a win in their previous game. I know the Brewers have had success in the past with Bush on the mound but he has been horrendous in 2009 so far and I really don't see him getting on track in this game here. I mean we are talking about a Milwaukee team that has won only 10 of Dave Bush's last 35 starts on the road and a team that is only 7-25 in Bush's last 32 starts as a road underdog. I think this is one of the worst spots ever for the Phillies and again I just don't see how they are going to get things going in this game. End of story.

The Philadelphia Phillies are still trying to shake off their 2008 World Series Championship hangover and it doesn't seem to be working. I mean the Phillies come into this game with a 6-7 record on the season, they have not looked good at all, they have yet to find their groove and they cannot put a consistent string of wins together long enough to gain any kind of ground in this division. So what the hell is the deal with this team anyways? Well I can tell you that Cole Hamel's early season struggles have a big something to do with the way this team is playing because he is their backbone and he is what keeps them going and without Hamels this team is in big trouble. Well their superstar pitcher is on the mound tonight for his third start of the season and he is still looking for his first win of the year. The Phillies have lost both his games and Hamels has one of the worst ERA and WHIP's in all of baseball because of the short outings where he allowed a ton of runs. Having said that, I expect Hamels to be ready this afternoon against a very bad road team that has a bunch of problems getting anything done against left handed starting pitchers. I have to mention right now that the Phillies were absolutel cash money in rubber matches last season and they are 4-0 in their last Game 3 situations in a series. The Phillies are also coming off a rare loss to NL Central opponents as they are 10-2 in their last 12 games versus opponents from that division. I am not a big fan of betting on large numbers like this but I can tell you right now that Philadelphia usually deserves these types of odds as they are 42-14 in their last 56 games when favored by -150 to -200 and this is a very good spot for Hamels to kick start his season and probably get the Phillies back into the mix of things. I also love betting on the Phillies against right handed starting pitchers as they have won 21 of their last 29 games versus righties and they have also won 36 of their last 51 games as a home favorite of the -151 to -200 odds range. I can talk all day about the Phillies and how good they are at home but I will save a bit of that for some other time when they get to play against a better opponent. I do however have to talk about Hamels and how he is going to pitch in this game. The Phillies are 14-2 in their last 16 games when Cole Hamels starts at home against a team with a losing record on the season and the Phillies are also 25-4 when Cole Hamels starts against a team with a straight up losing record either at home or on the road. WOW! They are also 20-7 in Hamel's last 27 starts versus NL Central Division opponents and despite his struggles so far this season, I could not think of a better pitcher to have on the mound for a team that is looking to get away from some early season struggles. I would recommend pounding away on both the MoneyLine and the RunLine in this game.

I don't care what kind of odds you are getting to fade a struggling (or hurting) Cole Hamels in this game, you can forget about the Brewers winning a) another road game and b) another game in Philadelphia because they suck at both and I just don't see them taking two in a row. END OF STORY! Over the span of the last four or five seasons, Milwaukee has managed to win only 7 of their last 31 games played in Philadelphia and like I mentioned before you do not want to go against one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball who is looking to find his stuff and looking for his first win of the season. I do have to tell you that Dave Bush pitched well in his last two starts in Philadelphia but the Brewers lost both of those games and seeing the way he has pitched at times this season, I don't see him keeping this Phillies offense quiet for long. Hamels on the other hand has made three career home starts against the Brewers, the Phillies have won all three of those games, Hamels has allowed only 4 ER's in 22.1 innings of work in those games and he has 24's in those games. So this is a team he loves to pitch against and this is a very good spot for him to get his season on track. I don't see how we are going to get odds like this on Hamels again this season and like I said before, take it or leave but if you leave it, you are missing out big time.

Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 25-4 in Cole Hamels last 29 starts versus a team with a straight up losing record.


Philadelphia 9, Milwaukee 1




More selections to come...
 
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Milwaukee 5, Philadelphia 0 lol
im on both plays with you flave, fuckin stupid 8th inning for KC...idiotss.. the phillies dont even deserve to be spoken of
 

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Thursday, April 23


Tampa Bay Rays ML -107

Chicago White Sox ML -106




:toast:




I cannot buy winners lately and this is just a brutal stretch of games. Both players tonight for 10 units. I don't know how many games I have led only to get screwed by bullpens or teams who cannot convert bases loaded with 0 outs. This is all I have for tonight, been on fire in the NBA Playoffs and hopefully I can start picking baseball winners again. Good Luck!
 

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