Who are we betting on for the Kentucky Derby this weekend?

Jenny Rees-via-CourierJournal said:

Here we help the Kentucky Derby hopefuls make their case for why they can win -- tempered with a dose of reality of why they can't.


Regal Ransom

Why: He beat highly regarded stablemate Desert Party to win the $2 million UAE Derby. His sire Distorted Humor already has a Kentucky Derby winner (Funny Cide in 2003). He may have been the fastest 2-year-old at Saratoga last summer.

Why not: He won the UAE Derby -- not the Florida, Santa Anita or Arkansas derbys.

Pioneer of the Nile

Why: His pedigree screams distance and Churchill Downs. His sire, Derby runner-up Empire Maker, might have worn the roses in 2003 if not for a bruised foot, and his dam, Star of Goshen, won the La Troienne by 11 lengths. He's been winning in spite of paceless races defusing his true closing style. Trainer Bob Baffert is a three-time Derby winner.

Why not: No horse has won the Derby in its first dirt start. Don't you think his first trainer, Hall of Famer Bill Mott, would have run him on dirt if he thought he was a dirt horse?

Square Eddie

Why: He was one of last year's best 2-year-olds. He ran a huge race to be third -- having the lead well into the stretch -- in Keeneland's Lexington in his first start in 91 days after having a stress fracture in a shin.

Why not: The Lexington was his first start in 91 days after having a stress fracture in a shin.

I Want Revenge

Why: He's never been worse than third and was dazzling in winning the Gotham and Wood (when he broke last and then overcame traffic) in his first dirt races. This is a serious horse.

Why not: The racing gods -- or at least the handicapping gods -- won't allow a winner trained by someone (Jeff Mullins) who once said to the Los Angeles Times that, "If you bet on horses, I would call you an idiot." He later apologized.

Papa Clem

Why: The Arkansas Derby winner has never been worse than second around two turns and has great tactical speed that allows him to run on the lead or to close off the pace. Jockey Rafael Bejarano, who has won titles at every Kentucky track, is on a roll, having won six straight meet titles in California.
(2 of 4)

Why not: His works here have not been as impressive as elsewhere.

Desert Party

Why: His sire, Street Cry, already has a Derby winner (Street Sense in 2007). His form fits the prototype of Derby winners: classy stakes-winner at 2, three strong preps at 3 -- including a fast-finishing second in the UAE Derby over what appeared a speed-favoring track.

Why not: That 3-year-old form came in Dubai.

Quality Road

Why: He's the only horse with three triple-digit speed figures. He's fast but versatile. Elusive Quality already has sired a Derby winner (Smarty Jones in 2004).

Why not: There's a saying, "no foot, no horse," and quarter cracks in two hooves in a month is not a good sign.

General Quarters

Why: No horse finished faster in a prep than he did in the Blue Grass. He's the only 2009 graded stakes-winner on both dirt and synthetic surfaces in the field.

Why not: Has a one-horse stable ever won the Derby? Horse racing can't get so lucky as to have a Cinderella story come true. According to Equibase stats, Tom McCarthy, with admittedly very limited opportunities, has never won two races in a row as a trainer -- though he has won 2 of 3 and 2 of 4. Maybe the Preakness.

Friesan Fire

Why: He's the best-bred horse for 1¼ miles trainer Larry Jones has had in the Derby, and Jones finished second the past two years. He has terrific tactical speed, and his Louisiana Derby win was sensational.

Why not: No horse has won the Derby off a layoff of seven weeks or more in at least 80 years. Or since 1950 has won without racing 11/8 beforehand.

Musket Man

Why: He is the most overlooked 5-for-6 horse in the Derby in years. Jockey Eibar Coa took off General Quarters to ride him.

Why not: He is bred to be a sprinter. Derby history is full of jockeys getting off the wrong horse.

Hold Me Back

Why: His Lane's End victory off a four-month layoff was huge. His Blue Grass second is a very underappreciated effort, given how fast he finished.
(3 of 4)

Why not: His only dirt start was a bad fifth in last year's Remsen.

West Side Bernie

Why: Conventional wisdom says he'll finally get the early pace he needs in the Derby. His Wood runner-up was very good. Or as trainer Kelly Breen said, "a little more traffic trouble for I Want Revenge, and we win the race."

Why not: Like I Want Revenge didn't already have scads of trouble to overcome? Actually, this is shaping up as a fairly paceless Derby.

Chocolate Candy

Why: The stretch-runner was a very good second to Pioneerof the Nile in a Santa Anita Derby devoid of pace. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, not one to get caught up in Derby hype, is genuinely excited to have this horse here and has carefully prepared a confidence-building route.

Why not: He's never raced on dirt. Owner Jenny Craig, of diet-products fame, is not allowed to win with a horse so named.

Win Willy

Why: He might have "bounced" when fourth in the Arkansas Derby after a huge victory at 56-1 in the Rebel. His name is Win Willy, not Also Ran Willy.

Why not: He won't get the pace he needs in this field.

Advice

Why: His Lexington victory, when he passed seven horses in the last eighth-mile, was big. The horse is finally getting it together.

Why not: He finished fifth against very modest competition in his one dirt race. Owner WinStar Farm had no Derby expectations for him going into the Lexington.

Dunkirk

Why: He ran a great second to a potential monster (Quality Road) in the Florida Derby in his third career start, closing over a track that seemed to play to speed. He's by a son of a Derby winner and out of a Kentucky Oaks winner. For $3.7 million, you better get a Derby winner.

Why not: Apollo in 1882 is the only horse to win the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old.

Mine That Bird

Why: He's sired by Birdstone, who ended Smarty Jones' Triple Crown bid in the final yards of the 2004 Belmont Stakes. The last trainer on crutches in a Triple Crown race won the 1998 Belmont (Elliott Walden with Victory Gallop). He won three stakes over Woodbine's Polytrack last year, and his speed figures have improved on dirt.
(4 of 4)

Why not: Uh, his top Beyer speed figure is 81. No horse based in New Mexico has ever won the Derby.

Flying Private

Why: He is reminiscent of D. Wayne Lukas' 1999 Derby winner Charismatic, with lots of seasoning (10 races) and finally getting it together at the right time. He's by a Derby winner and out of a mare sired by a Derby winner. Had breathing obstruction when fifth in the Arkansas Derby after being second in the Lane's End.

Why not: In the past 50 years, only two horses have been worse than third in their final Derby prep -- and they were both fourth. Charismatic, after all, won the Lexington.

Mr. Hot Stuff

Why: Horse who is not the quickest learner is starting to figure things out, and his Santa Anita Derby third was quite encouraging. He's a full brother to last year's Santa Anita Derby winner.

Why not: No horse has won the Derby in its dirt debut. And that full brother, Colonel John, finished sixth in last year's Derby against weaker competition. Since 1970, only five Derby winners took more than three races to win -- and he needed five.

Summer Bird

Why: In his third career start, he came flying to take third in the Arkansas Derby. He is by a Belmont winner and out of a mare by a Preakness winner.

Why not: If two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who began his career in early February, couldn't win the Derby in his fourth career start, Summer Bird surely can't after never racing until March. Tim Ice is in his first year training; the Arkansas Derby was jockey Chris Rosier's first mount in a graded stakes -- and the spot as designated Cinderella story for this Derby already is taken.

Join in the Dance

Why: He was a good second in the Tampa Bay Derby, losing to Illinois Derby-winner Musket Man while beating General Quarters, who won the Blue Grass.

Why not: He was fifth in the Blue Grass, fading badly despite setting a pedestrian pace. The last horse to win the Derby after being fifth in its last prep was Iron Liege in 1957.

Flat Out

Why: He's an underrated horse who had missed time because of a bruised foot before finishing sixth in the Arkansas Derby. Flatter ($5,000 stud fee) is a poor man's A.P. Indy.

Why not: If he gets in the race, he'll have a bruised ego to go with the foot.

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Judge Wapner said:

Dante, will try to find the time to do a write up.

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Drunken Horseplayer said:

Hold me Back is definitely one to include in the tris.

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Judge Wapner said:

Dante, will try to find the time to do a write up.

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kingbill said:

Chocolate Thunder - should be fine on dirt - he's a closer so if it's a slow pace could be trouble for him though.

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Jake T. said:

Chocolate Candy...

Chocolate Thunder sounds like a black man's porno name though haha.

:toast:

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