Need your input

fhoude · May 1, 2009

Hi Guys, I am new on this site, I have started betting around 1 yr ago. I didn t use any technique to choose by bet except my own tought on the game. In the last month and half, I re-started my bankroll with only 50$.

Since I have been on a extraordinary streak of 30 on 42, for 71.4%. Mostly betting on NBA, MLB and Hockey. I' ve cash out 8K during this streak and with yesterday results have a little more than 6k in my bankroll.

To continue on this streak and also not get to crazy when a big losing streak will come. I want you guys input on a good strategies for myself.

I want your tought on going on 4-5 units bets on big favorite ( ex: the lakers or cavs during the last serie) I am a believer that putting 3-4 times the pay back is really tought.

What should be my units amount on this bankroll, I know some of you talk about 1-2%, Its seem really low for what i am normally putting on a game.

Any input would be appreciate

ribijk122 · May 1, 2009

You mind if I ask how much you started with?

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

fhoude

Welcome to the RX. First congratulations on working up $50 to over 8K. Not an easy task to accomplish. That being said, however, you cannot expect to hit 71.4% over the long run. A professional gambler would be satisfied just to hit 54% over time. For long term money management, you should sustain a 1-2% amount of your bankroll for each play and adjust as your bankroll grows or shrinks by 20% intervals. This protects your bankroll against the inevitable losing streaks that you are going to have. This is a long term business. It is a marathon and not a sprint. You have made 42 plays. That is a small number of plays. If you start betting 4-5% per play and hit a losing streak, your 6K will disappear in the blink of an eye. Best of luck whatever you decide.

fhoude · May 1, 2009

Input

Thank you for the respond, I am curious to hear you guys on this point,

Betting on favorite, I am talking about for instance taking teams or bets with low return , exemple the lakers at 1.4 or the cavs at 1.35. The return being so low, if you take 10 times theses bets and lose 2-3 times, you will have made you would have probably just cover.

Also, you guys talked a lot about Units, if I am thinking about a 3-4 units games, meaning that i could place on a 6k bankroll I could put at 2% 120$ times 3-4units? so 360 or 480 on the bet?

Thank you for you guys input I really appreciate

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

fhoude said:
Thank you for the respond, I am curious to hear you guys on this point,

Betting on favorite, I am talking about for instance taking teams or bets with low return , exemple the lakers at 1.4 or the cavs at 1.35. The return being so low, if you take 10 times theses bets and lose 2-3 times, you will have made you would have probably just cover.

Also, you guys talked a lot about Units, if I am thinking about a 3-4 units games, meaning that i could place on a 6k bankroll I could put at 2% 120$ times 3-4units? so 360 or 480 on the bet?

Thank you for you guys input I really appreciate

Regarding betting favorites in the NBA Playoffs. Based on your question, I assume you are referring to playing the favorite on the moneyline. If I am incorrect, please clarify. Playing favorite moneylines in the NBA Playoffs could have disastrous results. An example would be playing Philadelphia against Orlando last night. Spot picking moneylines is fine but betting blindly is a recipe for losing your bankroll.

As to the using 3-4 units on every play or $360 to $480 out of a 6k bankroll is betting 6-8% which is far to high and will really be putting your bankroll at risk. I highly recommend not wagering that much per play.

fhoude · May 1, 2009

Ted, Yes i am talking about moneyline favorite in a lock situation like Lakers at home against Utha game 5.

Ted I kind want your idea on this :would you set yourself a 50$ units cap, saying that If I want to bet 3 units I put 150$? which is in this case 2.5% at worst I would put 4.1% at 5 units.

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

fhoude said:
Ted, Yes i am talking about moneyline favorite in a lock situation like Lakers at home against Utha game 5.

Ted I kind want your idea on this :would you set yourself a 50$ units cap, saying that If I want to bet 3 units I put 150$? which is in this case 2.5% at worst I would put 4.1% at 5 units.

Yes. That would be alright. Some of the more experienced handicappers use a 1-5 unit, myself included, when betting. My only concern with you is that you have indicated that you have been betting only 1 year or so. In the long haul, you will gain experience in varying the unit size and/or varying the percentage. This is one of the reason I was recommending for you to begin more conservatively. I've been in this business for 38 years so have a pretty decent sense on how and when to vary the size of my plays. But that being said, I still am often wrong even with a large play. So keep that in mind. BTW, there is no such thing as a lock so drop that from your thought process. Key injuries in the middle of a game happen all the time and change the expected outcome.

fhoude · May 1, 2009

Thank you Ted great Input, I will for sure let you know how I am progressing

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

fhoude said:
Thank you Ted great Input, I will for sure let you know how I am progressing

My pleasure. Any time you have a question, you are welcome to ask in my thread at the top of this forum entitiled. "Ask OldmanTed.....". Best of luck.

fhoude · May 2, 2009

Ted and the others, you will be shaking your head at me thats for sure, continuing this weekend on my old beginner way to bet bigger amount then the common sense 2-3%,

I've continue on my hot streak,

Took the Jays and Giants friday night

Saturday Penguins +1.5 and Phillies in the late Afternoon.

I am now before the end of the Phil game 33 on 45 plays with a bankroll now at 11.5K, if the Phillies win i will be a little bit more then 13K in.

oldmanTED · May 2, 2009

fhoude said:
Ted and the others, you will be shaking your head at me thats for sure, continuing this weekend on my old beginner way to bet bigger amount then the common sense 2-3%,

I've continue on my hot streak,

Took the Jays and Giants friday night

Saturday Penguins +1.5 and Phillies in the late Afternoon.

I am now before the end of the Phil game 33 on 45 plays with a bankroll now at 11.5K, if the Phillies win i will be a little bit more then 13K in.

Congratulations but be careful!

fhoude · May 2, 2009

Thank you I will, Philly won, so i will go now with the system

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