Derby

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

Ok, let's get it going.
1. West Side Bernie-Closer. Ran a 107 in The Wood. Finished 2nd going 4 wide. Should be a fresh horse. Only 3rd race off layoff. If there is any kind of pace in this race, he deserves a close look. Nice work at CD. Should like distance. If you like I Want Revenge, you must consider this one.

2. Musket Man-Tactical speed. Won Ill Derby with a 104. Not sure how strong that field was. Lightly raced at 2, which I like. Coa up is a plus. Moving in right direction.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff- Closer. Looks like a plodder. Best Speed fig is 93. Even with a jump forward hard to see him winning here. He would need sick early fractions in the race even to get up for a piece. Toss him.

4. Advice- Closer. Another with unipressive speed figs. Good work at CD. Nice finish last out. Pletcher trained. Lightly raced at two, and brought along nicely this year. Gonna need a hot pace up front. Toss.

5. Hold Me Back- Tactical-closer. Great Connections. Working up to race nicely. So so work at CD. Lightly raced. Under any other trainer would wonder if the horse is ready. Interesting.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

6. Friesan Fire- Speed. never gone more than 1 and 1-16th so distance is a concern. Spped figs are on the improve. Hasn't ran since 3-14. Bullet work at CD. Must consider.

7. Papa Clem- Speed-Tactical speed. Won Ark Derby with a 100. Heading in right direction. Don't really care for works at CD. Not out of the question.

8. Mine That Bird- Tactical. Strange route for the Derby. A few too many races at 2 for my liking. No major preps. Seems too slow here.

9. Join The Dance- Speed. Went 4 wide at first turn in BG. Speed figs suck. Would have to move forward big time. Good work at CD. Should get out quick.

10. Regal Ransome- Saudi invader. Bullet work at CD Hard to get a handle on him. Looks like tactical speed. Certainly has talent. Don't like horses that ship in from out of the country for this race. Asking a lot with no prep on US soil.

11. Chocolate Candy- Tactical speed. Ran in SA Derby off layoff. Should make a nice move forward. You can make a nice case for him beating Pioneer here. No big speed figurers yet, but may put one up on Saturday. Smith up. Worth a closer look. So so works at CD.

JakeT. · May 1, 2009

Awesome info. Thanks for posting this stuff Judge.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

12- General Quarters- Tactical/Closer. Has not really had a break since last October. Strange way to work up to Derby. Won BG with a 98. This horse may have peaked for that race. A bullet and a solid work at CD. Had two races at CD last year and tired in both. Hmmm.
13- I Want Revenge. Tactical/Closer. Put up two monster speed figures in Gotham and Wood. Just not sure how legit those figures were. Lost twice out west to Pionneer. Then comes east and turns into a monster. Makes me wonder. Seems to be working well at CD. Should be the favorite at post time. Obviously has talent. But is he bettable as favorite? Not sure.
14-Atomic Rain-Speed/Tactical. Ran fast early last race. Had an excuse in Wood. Distance may be a question. 14 not a great post for this horse. No listed works at CD. Ran a 103 in Wood which also makes me question the figs coming out of Aqueduct that day.

15-Dunkirk. Tactical. What a beautiful horse. Reminds me in some ways of Curling. Unraced at 2. Has run a 107 and a 101 in Fla Derby to get second. Should be a very fresh horse. However he is a littl green for my liking. Watch for him to be a super horse by summer. In my opinion he is the best of the 3 year old crop. Great connections. Should go off as 2nd favorite.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

My pleasure, Jake.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

BTW, everyone feel free to chime in. Would like to see dosage figures, recent works and articles on how the horses look etc etc.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

Also videos of the major preps would be a help.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

16- Pioneer Of The Nile. Versatile running style. Should like the distance. Beat fav twice. Not flashy. All he does is win. Not great speed figs, but may be decieving. 2 average works at CD. Strong connections. Baffert knows how to bring a horse up to the Derby. Contender.

17- Summer Bird. Closer. Unraced at 2. Very green. Improving speed figs. Ran a nice Ark Derby. Should like added distance. Nice breeding. Worth a look.

18- Nowhere To Hide. Tactical/closer. Actually he does have somewhere to hide. At the back of the pack. Very unimpressive speed figs. Not much to like in it's last race. He however did get caught outside so has an excuse. One sub par work at CD. Probable toss.

Betallsports · May 1, 2009

I Was leaning towards Dunkirk, but my problem is. That No horse has won the Derby, unraced at 2.
Well since like 1882 ?? or something like that.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

My problem too Mike. But in this field with this horse, that could change. Not crazy on the price that horse but will probably be in my exactas somewhere.

JakeT. · May 1, 2009

Papa Clem ran a :34 three furlong today... easily the fastest. Jockey said he did not push him at all. Next fastest was 37 2/5.

Just FYI.

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

Great job as usual Judge. Best of luck on your choice to win this year. :toast:

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

19- Desert Party- Tactical. One of these years an Arab shipper may jump up and win this race. But untill that happens will have to take a position against them. The two seem to be very close in terms of talent but I would take Ransom over this one.

20- Flying Private. Tactical speed. Lousy post. Ran a nice race in The Lanes End. Moved backwards last race. Lukas has a history of running horses in Derby with no real shot. I think this is another. Toss.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

Good info Jake. Thanks Ted. Derby is always a crapshoot.

Betallsports · May 1, 2009

Judge Wapner said:
My problem too Mike. But in this field with this horse, that could change. Not crazy on the price that horse but will probably be in my exactas somewhere.

And I think I Want Revenge is Over Rated. He's a Nice horse and all, but like your write-up above. He got beat twice to, Pionneer.
Now he's all that here on the East Coast.

Plus him being the Fav. and you know that Stat as well.
But I Always say, The Fuking Horse doesn't know he's the Favorite @)

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

The things I look at for The Derby.

Historical trends.
Who will get the added distance.
Who is working up to the race well.
Who will handle the CD track.
The way the pace of the race will set up.
I probably give more consideration to the Jocks and trainers for this race than other races.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

Mike, I also agree there. At the price he will be, I will probably take a stand against him. I just have a tough time believing those Aqueduct speed figures.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

Jake T. said:
Papa Clem ran a :34 three furlong today... easily the fastest. Jockey said he did not push him at all. Next fastest was 37 2/5.

Just FYI.

Was there any reaction from the trainer. Wonder if he was pissed that the rider let him go that fast. Several years ago Country Day did the same thing and ended up being scratched. There is such a thing as too fast of a work.

May be gearing him up for an early move.

JudgeWapner · May 1, 2009

Ok, let's get rid of some of the dead wood. My first throw outs are
Mr Hot Stuff
Advice - although his late move in Lex looks impressive on paper
Mine That Bird
Nowhere To Hide
Flying Private

I just don't see any of these running fast enough.

JakeT. · May 1, 2009

Pioneer
Friesan Fire
Desert Party
Summer Bird

SUPERFECTA!

That is what I'm thinking currently. Would pay beautifully.

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