Atlanta +1.09 over NY METS (1st 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
Mike Pelfrey comes in with a 4-0 record, he's at home and he's pitching for one of the hottest teams in the league not to mention one of the stronger one's too. Despite all that the books have made the Mets a very cheap price and that's because they know that Pelfrey is the second best starter in this one and that his numbers are extremely misleading. For one, he has not struck out a single batter in two straight starts and overall in 28 innings he's struck out just six batters. The league is hitting .308 off him and he comes in with an ERA of 5.46. His WHIP of 1.71 is also troubling and to suggest that Pelfrey has been livng a charmed life would be an understatement. Probablilities says that his good fortune won't last much longer. By contrast, the league has hit just .221 off Jair Jurrjens. On the road his numbers are evevn better, as he's started four road games and his BAA is .179 to go along with an ERA of 1.00. Jurrjens has filthy stuff and in six starts he has not allowed more than three runs in any starts and in five of those six starts he's allowed two runs or less. The Braves came in here last night and cooled off the Mets, they've now won three straight and we're definitely not going with the worst of it in this one. This choice is predicated on the starters and therefore I'm playing this one in the first five innings. Play Atlanta +1.09 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Mike Pelfrey comes in with a 4-0 record, he's at home and he's pitching for one of the hottest teams in the league not to mention one of the stronger one's too. Despite all that the books have made the Mets a very cheap price and that's because they know that Pelfrey is the second best starter in this one and that his numbers are extremely misleading. For one, he has not struck out a single batter in two straight starts and overall in 28 innings he's struck out just six batters. The league is hitting .308 off him and he comes in with an ERA of 5.46. His WHIP of 1.71 is also troubling and to suggest that Pelfrey has been livng a charmed life would be an understatement. Probablilities says that his good fortune won't last much longer. By contrast, the league has hit just .221 off Jair Jurrjens. On the road his numbers are evevn better, as he's started four road games and his BAA is .179 to go along with an ERA of 1.00. Jurrjens has filthy stuff and in six starts he has not allowed more than three runs in any starts and in five of those six starts he's allowed two runs or less. The Braves came in here last night and cooled off the Mets, they've now won three straight and we're definitely not going with the worst of it in this one. This choice is predicated on the starters and therefore I'm playing this one in the first five innings. Play Atlanta +1.09 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
