My early day game underdog pounder was washed out yesterday but I took that same $5000 and bet all of it on the Toronto Blue Jays ML which was an easy winner. The bottom line here is that I have posted nothing but winners betting 5k a game which is not that unusual for a spot bettor like myself (well recently anyways) and I have now hit most of the plays I posted. You can hate if you want, it doesn't bother me because winning is all that really matters. Remember Newcastle United +105? Washington Capitals +136? Philadelphia Phillies -113? Atlanta Braves +124? Yup again that makes me 5-1 in my last six wagers for that amount and I have nothing to lose by betting the big money once or twice a day.
I could not find anything I really liked in the early games so I decided to pick the one I have had my eye for some time now. The Texas Rangers are off to one of their best starts in a very long time and there is no reason for that to stop right here. First of all John Lackey is making his first start of the season and that is a recipe for disaster in this ballpark. Second of all the Angels are not the Angels of season's past and their offense, although good at times, cannot compete with a healthy lineup like the Rangers lineup and unless they find a way to get 6+ runs off a red-hot Vincent Padilla, this game won't even be close. All this talk about Lackey and how he is from Texas and how he is going to pitch a gem. Or how about the 50% of the public who are actually buying that story and backing him. That makes me want to take this even more:
Texas Rangers ML -116
Hear me out on this. The storyline here is that John Lackey is back for the Angels, he is supposed to provide some sort of boost for this team and he is apparently the saviour to their season. Well Lackey missed 6 weeks of the MLB season so far and you want to tell me that he is going to walk into this stadium and pitch a gem against a Texas Rangers team that is ranked:
#3 in the AL in batting average
#1 in the AL in slugging percentage
#2 in the AL in total bases
#2 in the AL in Runs Batted In
#1 in the AL in Home Runs (by 10 HR's)
#3 in the AL in Runs scored
What the hell else do you want me to tell you here? I don't give a shit where John Lackey is from. It's not like he hasn't been lit up here in the past pitching in his home State. Let's take a look back at some of John Lackey's pitching outings in Texas:
July 10, 2007...5.2 IP's, 15 hits, 6 ER's, 11-10 loss
Sep 16, 2007...4.0 IP's, 10 hits, 6 ER's, 12-6 loss
Sure he has had some gems in this ballpark too but again I have to point out that he is coming off the DL, he has not pitched all season and he is going to be on some obvious pitch count in this game which means the Angels bullpen is going to have to close this one out. With the obvious pitch count on Lackey, do you trust an Angels bullpen with a season ERA of 6.50 and a road ERA of 8.76???A lot of people are going to look at Lackey's last outing in Texas at the end of last season where he went 6 strong innings, allowed 0 ER's, struck out 12 batters in a 7-3 win but what most people don't know about that win is how vanilla the Rangers lineup was.
Ramon Vazquez (sucks and will always suck)
German Duran (now in the minors)
Milton Bradley (on the Dodgers)
These three composed 3 of the 4 top spots in the Rangers order for that game and there was no Mark Texeira, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Andruw Jones to name a few. Lackey had an easy lineup to face in that game and now he faces a 100% healthy Rangers lineup which is a completely different story. Believe me on that.
Some of you no doubt have concerns about betting on Vincent Padilla because of the horrendous outings he has put out there at home this season. The only reason we are getting this kind of line is because Padilla has made 4 home starts this season and he is 1-2 in those starts with an ERA of 8.10 and a WHIP of 1.90 so you would assume he is an easy fade right? Well I am a big fan of confidence and right now Padilla is as confident as they get coming off two outstanding outings where he beat both the White Sox and Mariners on the road pitching a combined 15.0 innings with 1 ER, 2 hits allowed and some of the best stuff we have ever seen from him. He needed those kinds of outings heading back home. Also you have to look at Padilla's daytime starts versus his night starts this season because there is a huge difference.
Padilla Night Starts: 3 starts, 15.2 IP, 14 ER's, 8.04 ERA, 1.85 WHIP
Padilla Day Starts: 4 starts, 26.0 IP. 9 ER's, 3.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
That's one hell of a difference so we know Padilla has good stuff during the day, we know he is confident coming off two of his best career starts the last two outings (both on the road) and believe me when I say he is going to want to win this game here today. The Rangers have won 8 of their last 9 games versus right-handed starters, John Lackey is nowhere near the top form that has made him one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and this game has the Rangers win written all over it. This game is very different than all the other times Lackey has pitched here and very different than the last 3-4 times Padilla has hosted the Angels. Vlad Guerrero is a Padilla killer (.391 career, 3 HR's, 12 RBI's in 48 AB's) but he is out today. Garry Matthews Jr. is also a Padilla killer (.381 career, 8 for 21 in those games) but he is also out today. Erik Aybar is .222 lifetime versus Padilla, Mike Napoli is .143 lifetime versus Padilla, Torii Hunter is .143 lifetime versus Padilla and those are the guys playing well for the Angels this season. You want to shoot things out with the Rangers you are going to need better than that.
Time to cash this bitch!
:toast:
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I could not find anything I really liked in the early games so I decided to pick the one I have had my eye for some time now. The Texas Rangers are off to one of their best starts in a very long time and there is no reason for that to stop right here. First of all John Lackey is making his first start of the season and that is a recipe for disaster in this ballpark. Second of all the Angels are not the Angels of season's past and their offense, although good at times, cannot compete with a healthy lineup like the Rangers lineup and unless they find a way to get 6+ runs off a red-hot Vincent Padilla, this game won't even be close. All this talk about Lackey and how he is from Texas and how he is going to pitch a gem. Or how about the 50% of the public who are actually buying that story and backing him. That makes me want to take this even more:
Texas Rangers ML -116
Hear me out on this. The storyline here is that John Lackey is back for the Angels, he is supposed to provide some sort of boost for this team and he is apparently the saviour to their season. Well Lackey missed 6 weeks of the MLB season so far and you want to tell me that he is going to walk into this stadium and pitch a gem against a Texas Rangers team that is ranked:
#3 in the AL in batting average
#1 in the AL in slugging percentage
#2 in the AL in total bases
#2 in the AL in Runs Batted In
#1 in the AL in Home Runs (by 10 HR's)
#3 in the AL in Runs scored
What the hell else do you want me to tell you here? I don't give a shit where John Lackey is from. It's not like he hasn't been lit up here in the past pitching in his home State. Let's take a look back at some of John Lackey's pitching outings in Texas:
July 10, 2007...5.2 IP's, 15 hits, 6 ER's, 11-10 loss
Sep 16, 2007...4.0 IP's, 10 hits, 6 ER's, 12-6 loss
Sure he has had some gems in this ballpark too but again I have to point out that he is coming off the DL, he has not pitched all season and he is going to be on some obvious pitch count in this game which means the Angels bullpen is going to have to close this one out. With the obvious pitch count on Lackey, do you trust an Angels bullpen with a season ERA of 6.50 and a road ERA of 8.76???A lot of people are going to look at Lackey's last outing in Texas at the end of last season where he went 6 strong innings, allowed 0 ER's, struck out 12 batters in a 7-3 win but what most people don't know about that win is how vanilla the Rangers lineup was.
Ramon Vazquez (sucks and will always suck)
German Duran (now in the minors)
Milton Bradley (on the Dodgers)
These three composed 3 of the 4 top spots in the Rangers order for that game and there was no Mark Texeira, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Andruw Jones to name a few. Lackey had an easy lineup to face in that game and now he faces a 100% healthy Rangers lineup which is a completely different story. Believe me on that.
Some of you no doubt have concerns about betting on Vincent Padilla because of the horrendous outings he has put out there at home this season. The only reason we are getting this kind of line is because Padilla has made 4 home starts this season and he is 1-2 in those starts with an ERA of 8.10 and a WHIP of 1.90 so you would assume he is an easy fade right? Well I am a big fan of confidence and right now Padilla is as confident as they get coming off two outstanding outings where he beat both the White Sox and Mariners on the road pitching a combined 15.0 innings with 1 ER, 2 hits allowed and some of the best stuff we have ever seen from him. He needed those kinds of outings heading back home. Also you have to look at Padilla's daytime starts versus his night starts this season because there is a huge difference.
Padilla Night Starts: 3 starts, 15.2 IP, 14 ER's, 8.04 ERA, 1.85 WHIP
Padilla Day Starts: 4 starts, 26.0 IP. 9 ER's, 3.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
That's one hell of a difference so we know Padilla has good stuff during the day, we know he is confident coming off two of his best career starts the last two outings (both on the road) and believe me when I say he is going to want to win this game here today. The Rangers have won 8 of their last 9 games versus right-handed starters, John Lackey is nowhere near the top form that has made him one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and this game has the Rangers win written all over it. This game is very different than all the other times Lackey has pitched here and very different than the last 3-4 times Padilla has hosted the Angels. Vlad Guerrero is a Padilla killer (.391 career, 3 HR's, 12 RBI's in 48 AB's) but he is out today. Garry Matthews Jr. is also a Padilla killer (.381 career, 8 for 21 in those games) but he is also out today. Erik Aybar is .222 lifetime versus Padilla, Mike Napoli is .143 lifetime versus Padilla, Torii Hunter is .143 lifetime versus Padilla and those are the guys playing well for the Angels this season. You want to shoot things out with the Rangers you are going to need better than that.
Time to cash this bitch!
:toast:
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:cripwalk:
