HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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Boston –1½ +1.49 over TORONTO
The Jays sudden skid needs no introduction, as they’re at nine losses and counting and things can’t get much worse. Yeah, they’re at home but the trouble started when they went into Boston and faced Tim Wakefield. Prior to that trip to Boston they were seeing beach balls but since facing Wakefield they’ve been seeing BB’s and aside from a 10-run outburst in their last game they had scored just 16 combined runs in eight games. What makes this so interesting is that the media has been drilling it into their minds that facing the knuckleballer completely messed up their timing. Well, they finally got their “timing” back with 10 runs on Wednesday and they’ll face the knuckleballer again. If nothing else, it’s a big psychological edge for Wakefield and a big psychological disadvantage for the Jays hitters to overcome. The Jays may break out of its funk at home but winning is so much tougher when you’re losing and this is not the best time for the Jays to run into Wakefield and the juggernaut Red Sox. Play: Boston –1½ +1.49 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Florida +1.58 over NY METS (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Big prices are forthcoming on the Marlins all weekend long and one has to believe the Mets are a little vulnerable right now without Reyes, Beltran and Ryan Church. Reyes has always been the catalyst of this offense and the Mets record when he’s not in the line-up is not impressive at all. With those three out, David Wright is not getting as many good pitches to hit and is in the midst of a 4-19 funk. Sean West makes just his second start of the year and this guy has an outstanding arm to go along with some nasty stuff. He’s a big lefty (6’5) and features a 94-mph fastball, a circle change and a hard slider and he can throw them all for strikes. He did walk four in his major-league debut but that can be attributed to nerves. Still, he allowed just two earned runs to the Rays and struck out five. The kid can pitch and has a chance to stay at this level for years and years. Mike Pelfrey beat the Marlins on July 8, 2006, but has since gone 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA against them. Pelfrey failed to pitch past the fifth inning three times in five starts versus Florida last season, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. Win, lose or draw, the Marlins have to be considered good value and because West will likely only go five or six innings the play is the Marlins in the first five. Play: Florida +1.58 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Atlanta -½ +1.05 over ARIZONA (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
This one is all about playing against Jon Garland, a guy who looks like he’s throwing batter practice out there. Garland has about the least intimidating stuff in the majors and Chase Field does not help his cause. This is a hitter’s park where the gaps are huge and the balls carry. Garland gives up a ton of hits, he’s not a strikeout pitcher and he issues too many walks, all big factors to his current 6.99 ERA at home in five starts. In fact, over 28 frames at home he’s allowed 38 hits and five bombs, while striking out just nine and walking 13. The opposition has hit .328 off him at Chase Field and his chances of success against the Braves, or anyone else for that matter are slim at best. The Braves will very likely put up some runs here early and that’s all there is to it. Oh, Jair Jurrjens is a quality pitcher, making this the biggest pitching mismatch on the board. See ya at the cashier’s booth about 11:00 PM. Play: Atlanta in the first five innings -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Los Angeles –1.02 over CHICAGO (2:20 PM)
The Cubbies and Ted Lilly favored over Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers makes no sense whatsoever. For one, L.A. is 11-3 against southpaws, they’re 34-15 overall, they’ve won five in a row on the road including yesterday’s opener and they’ve now won eight of its past nine away from Chavez Ravine. It gets better. Billingsley is a monster, who has been lights out all year. In fact, the team is 8-2 when he starts and he comes in here with a 1.63 road ERA. Meanwhile, the Cubs have dropped nine of 11 and they’ve scored two runs or less in seven of its last 10 games. Lilly can be effective for sure, as his 1.29 home ERA will attest to. However, he’s 1-2 over his last three starts with a 5.19 ERA and in no way in a million years does he have an edge over Billingsley. Call me crazy but this is a must bet at this price, as both Billingsley and the Dodgers are the straight goods while the Cubbies can’t get out of its own way right now. Play: Los Angeles –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Boston –1½ +1.49 over TORONTO
The Jays sudden skid needs no introduction, as they’re at nine losses and counting and things can’t get much worse. Yeah, they’re at home but the trouble started when they went into Boston and faced Tim Wakefield. Prior to that trip to Boston they were seeing beach balls but since facing Wakefield they’ve been seeing BB’s and aside from a 10-run outburst in their last game they had scored just 16 combined runs in eight games. What makes this so interesting is that the media has been drilling it into their minds that facing the knuckleballer completely messed up their timing. Well, they finally got their “timing” back with 10 runs on Wednesday and they’ll face the knuckleballer again. If nothing else, it’s a big psychological edge for Wakefield and a big psychological disadvantage for the Jays hitters to overcome. The Jays may break out of its funk at home but winning is so much tougher when you’re losing and this is not the best time for the Jays to run into Wakefield and the juggernaut Red Sox. Play: Boston –1½ +1.49 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Florida +1.58 over NY METS (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Big prices are forthcoming on the Marlins all weekend long and one has to believe the Mets are a little vulnerable right now without Reyes, Beltran and Ryan Church. Reyes has always been the catalyst of this offense and the Mets record when he’s not in the line-up is not impressive at all. With those three out, David Wright is not getting as many good pitches to hit and is in the midst of a 4-19 funk. Sean West makes just his second start of the year and this guy has an outstanding arm to go along with some nasty stuff. He’s a big lefty (6’5) and features a 94-mph fastball, a circle change and a hard slider and he can throw them all for strikes. He did walk four in his major-league debut but that can be attributed to nerves. Still, he allowed just two earned runs to the Rays and struck out five. The kid can pitch and has a chance to stay at this level for years and years. Mike Pelfrey beat the Marlins on July 8, 2006, but has since gone 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA against them. Pelfrey failed to pitch past the fifth inning three times in five starts versus Florida last season, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. Win, lose or draw, the Marlins have to be considered good value and because West will likely only go five or six innings the play is the Marlins in the first five. Play: Florida +1.58 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Atlanta -½ +1.05 over ARIZONA (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
This one is all about playing against Jon Garland, a guy who looks like he’s throwing batter practice out there. Garland has about the least intimidating stuff in the majors and Chase Field does not help his cause. This is a hitter’s park where the gaps are huge and the balls carry. Garland gives up a ton of hits, he’s not a strikeout pitcher and he issues too many walks, all big factors to his current 6.99 ERA at home in five starts. In fact, over 28 frames at home he’s allowed 38 hits and five bombs, while striking out just nine and walking 13. The opposition has hit .328 off him at Chase Field and his chances of success against the Braves, or anyone else for that matter are slim at best. The Braves will very likely put up some runs here early and that’s all there is to it. Oh, Jair Jurrjens is a quality pitcher, making this the biggest pitching mismatch on the board. See ya at the cashier’s booth about 11:00 PM. Play: Atlanta in the first five innings -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Los Angeles –1.02 over CHICAGO (2:20 PM)
The Cubbies and Ted Lilly favored over Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers makes no sense whatsoever. For one, L.A. is 11-3 against southpaws, they’re 34-15 overall, they’ve won five in a row on the road including yesterday’s opener and they’ve now won eight of its past nine away from Chavez Ravine. It gets better. Billingsley is a monster, who has been lights out all year. In fact, the team is 8-2 when he starts and he comes in here with a 1.63 road ERA. Meanwhile, the Cubs have dropped nine of 11 and they’ve scored two runs or less in seven of its last 10 games. Lilly can be effective for sure, as his 1.29 home ERA will attest to. However, he’s 1-2 over his last three starts with a 5.19 ERA and in no way in a million years does he have an edge over Billingsley. Call me crazy but this is a must bet at this price, as both Billingsley and the Dodgers are the straight goods while the Cubbies can’t get out of its own way right now. Play: Los Angeles –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
