I'm not sure if anyone's seen my thread on the tracker forum but I made two picks tonight and I'm going to explain my logic here. Hopefully you jump on board. You're opinions are welcome as always.
Detroit Tigers -128 over Baltimore Orioles
This has been a pretty popular pick on the forum today and understandably so. Justin Verlander is 5-2 (team 7-3) with a 3.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He has struck out 85 batters in 63 innings while walking just 19. In that time, he has also only served up a total of three homeruns. That's one for every twenty innings he throws.
But the part that impresses me the most is his performance this month. In five starts he is 4-0 with a 1.02 ERA and one complete game. He has struck out 51 in 35 innings and posted an impressive .142 batting average against.
As stated before in the RX baseball forum, Justin Verlander has been the best pitcher in baseball as of late.
The doubt sets in when you look into his home/away splits. At home, he's 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA and .154 BAA. On the road, he seems to be a completley different person, going 2-2 with a 5.17 ERA and a .253 BAA.
Despite that, Verlander threw a seven inning, five hit, eight strikeout gem against the Kansas City Royals IN Kansas City. In addition to that, he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts at Camden Yards. His BAA is just .175 in that stadium as well.
Now, Detroit is scoring just 4.1 runs per game in their last seven outings, while Baltimore sits up at 6.0 runs per game. Detroit is just 2-5 in their last seven while Baltimore is 6-1. Also, do not underestimate Jeremy Guthrie. He may be a mediocre 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA, serving up 11 homeruns in just 60 innings of work, he has been much better on his home field. His record there is 3-2, his ERA is down to 3.75 after his seven inning, one run gem against the Blue Jays last time out, and his homerun total is at four.
Due to all that, I encourage you to play just one unit on the game tonight.
Chicago White Sox -109 over Kansas City Royals
Although I hate to bet on two road teams in one day, I couldn't pass this one up. Mark Buerhle takes on Gil Meche and a struggling Kansas City line up. Mark is 6-1 with a 2.59 ERA this year. Meche is just 2-5 with a 4.88 ERA. The White Sox may be a half game behind the Royals, but Chicago is finally hitting it's stride. They are 5-2 in their last seven scoring 6.0 runs per game at a .308 batting average and .362 on base percetange. Their pitching has been even better as they have surrendered just 2.0 runs per game in that span.
The Royals are on the other side of the block. They are just 2-5 in their last seven scoring 2.1 runs per game and surrendering 6.4. They are hitting just .212 in those seven games. Of course, as you could have guessed, Zach Grienke and Brian Bannister were the winners in those two wins this week. Gil Meche has not been anywhere near their level this year and he doesn't seem to be getting any better.
In his last three starts, he's 0-2 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. He gotten out of the fifth inning just one time in those three starts.
Now, you may be thinking that Buerhle has never been great on the road. That is true, he may be 2-1 away from Chicago, but he's got a 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He has surrendered 26 base runners in 19 innings and ten of them have scored. Mark may not always have his best stuff on the road, but let's not forget that over his career he is 19-8 with a 3.50 ERA against the Royals. His team is 26-11 in those starts and a struggling offense probably won't hurt the cause either.
Detroit Tigers -128 over Baltimore Orioles
This has been a pretty popular pick on the forum today and understandably so. Justin Verlander is 5-2 (team 7-3) with a 3.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He has struck out 85 batters in 63 innings while walking just 19. In that time, he has also only served up a total of three homeruns. That's one for every twenty innings he throws.
But the part that impresses me the most is his performance this month. In five starts he is 4-0 with a 1.02 ERA and one complete game. He has struck out 51 in 35 innings and posted an impressive .142 batting average against.
As stated before in the RX baseball forum, Justin Verlander has been the best pitcher in baseball as of late.
The doubt sets in when you look into his home/away splits. At home, he's 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA and .154 BAA. On the road, he seems to be a completley different person, going 2-2 with a 5.17 ERA and a .253 BAA.
Despite that, Verlander threw a seven inning, five hit, eight strikeout gem against the Kansas City Royals IN Kansas City. In addition to that, he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts at Camden Yards. His BAA is just .175 in that stadium as well.
Now, Detroit is scoring just 4.1 runs per game in their last seven outings, while Baltimore sits up at 6.0 runs per game. Detroit is just 2-5 in their last seven while Baltimore is 6-1. Also, do not underestimate Jeremy Guthrie. He may be a mediocre 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA, serving up 11 homeruns in just 60 innings of work, he has been much better on his home field. His record there is 3-2, his ERA is down to 3.75 after his seven inning, one run gem against the Blue Jays last time out, and his homerun total is at four.
Due to all that, I encourage you to play just one unit on the game tonight.
Chicago White Sox -109 over Kansas City Royals
Although I hate to bet on two road teams in one day, I couldn't pass this one up. Mark Buerhle takes on Gil Meche and a struggling Kansas City line up. Mark is 6-1 with a 2.59 ERA this year. Meche is just 2-5 with a 4.88 ERA. The White Sox may be a half game behind the Royals, but Chicago is finally hitting it's stride. They are 5-2 in their last seven scoring 6.0 runs per game at a .308 batting average and .362 on base percetange. Their pitching has been even better as they have surrendered just 2.0 runs per game in that span.
The Royals are on the other side of the block. They are just 2-5 in their last seven scoring 2.1 runs per game and surrendering 6.4. They are hitting just .212 in those seven games. Of course, as you could have guessed, Zach Grienke and Brian Bannister were the winners in those two wins this week. Gil Meche has not been anywhere near their level this year and he doesn't seem to be getting any better.
In his last three starts, he's 0-2 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. He gotten out of the fifth inning just one time in those three starts.
Now, you may be thinking that Buerhle has never been great on the road. That is true, he may be 2-1 away from Chicago, but he's got a 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He has surrendered 26 base runners in 19 innings and ten of them have scored. Mark may not always have his best stuff on the road, but let's not forget that over his career he is 19-8 with a 3.50 ERA against the Royals. His team is 26-11 in those starts and a struggling offense probably won't hurt the cause either.
