A bit bummed about ml over rl

BstonBruin · May 31, 2009

Was 6 for 6 today's in picking winners, but all were on the money line and all would have surpassed the -1.5 run line.

Yankees w 10 - 5
Tigers w 6 - 3
Rays w 5 - 2
Phillies w 6 - 9
Marlins w 7 - 3

When betting on baseball does anybody just always bet on the run line when picking a favorite to win. I feel like over a span of time this would be much more profitable.

What are your opinions?

Twistedheat · May 31, 2009

BstonBruin said:
Was 6 for 6 today's in picking winners, but all were on the money line and all would have surpassed the -1.5 run line.

Yankees w 10 - 5
Tigers w 6 - 3
Rays w 5 - 2
Phillies w 6 - 9
Marlins w 7 - 3

When betting on baseball does anybody just always bet on the run line when picking a favorite to win. I feel like over a span of time this would be much more profitable.

What are your opinions?

You'd be wrong.

Over a significant sample size, you'd pretty much end up the same profit/loss wise whether you bet on the ML or RL.

The only way you could make RL more profitable than ML is if you were specifically capping for a team to win by 2+. The RL are usually determined using the ML and Total for the specific game. The higher the total, the lower the -1.5 RL will be. Something like 20% of road wins are by 1, and something like 30% of home wins are by 1. These percentages are also already built into the RL, based on whether the home team is a fav or the dog is fav.

Therefore, if you were going to bet on RL, I'd recommend only do so when you feel as though the 'Road Dog' has a strong chance of winning.

A bit bummed about ml over rl

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