thefriedone's "score in first inning" system

thefriedone · May 31, 2009

Ok, I've been tracking this offline for about a week with good success, so I'm going to start posting picks. The basic idea of the system is to average each team's first inning run scoring percentage with the opposing pitcher's first inning run allowance. The numbers I am working with so far provide about 3-5 plays per day most days. Here we go! d1g1t

0-0 (0 units) YTD

Today's plays:

FLA/NYM - YES (-105)
HOU/PIT - YES (-125)
SD/COL - NO (+110)

The actual odds you are getting for each play is not very relevant, so just use whatever you can get. I am posting the numbers I get for tracking purposes. All plays are to win one unit (faves) or risking one unit (dogs).

thefriedone · May 31, 2009

FLA/NYM - YES (-105) loss
HOU/PIT - YES (-125) win
SD/COL - NO (+110) win

2-1 (+1.05 units) after day 1

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SpreadOffense · May 31, 2009

Just a piece of advice, and don't take this the wrong way, I would advise looking at the umps in these games. Think you got lucky in the Houston game with Hirsch behind the plate..

1sob · May 31, 2009

congrats

thefriedone · Jun 1, 2009

Four plays tonight:

NYM/PIT - YES (-120)
MIL/FLA - YES (-125)
CIN/STL - YES (-110)
PHI/SDG - NO (-125)

thefriedone · Jun 1, 2009

NYM/PIT - YES (-120) loss
MIL/FLA - YES (-125) win
CIN/STL - YES (-110) win
PHI/SDG - NO (-125) win

3-1 (+1.8 units) on the night

Overall record now stands at 5-2 (+2.85 units) :103631605

thefriedone · Jun 2, 2009

Just one play tonight

MIL/FLA - YES (-130)

thefriedone · Jun 2, 2009

MIL/FLA - YES (-130) loss

0-1 (-1.3 units) on the night

Overall 5-3 (+1.55 units)

thefriedone · Jun 3, 2009

Posting one 7:00 play right before game time:

LAA/TOR - NO (-125)

Likely more to come in a few...

thefriedone · Jun 3, 2009

Just one more play for the night:

ARI/LAD - NO (-125)

thefriedone · Jun 3, 2009

LAA/TOR - NO (-125) loss
ARI/LAD - NO (-125) win

1-1 (-.25 units) on the night

YTD record 6-4 (+1.3 units)

thefriedone · Jun 4, 2009

Welp, forgot to crunch the numbers before I left for work this morning, so only night games for today.

Plays:

SFG/WAS - NO (-125)
COL/HOU - YES (-130)
STL scores first (-120)

I checked what my plays on the day games would have been, just for fun, and I would have gone 2-0 so far on the day... doh!

thefriedone · Jun 4, 2009

Ugh, bad luck missing those day game plays. Will try not to do that again in the future!

SFG/WAS - NO (-125) loss
COL/HOU - YES (-130) loss
STL scores first (-120) win

1-2 (-1.55 units) tonight

Overall 7-6 (-0.25 units). I'm starting to see how the juice on these bets is gonna be rough since the system usually picks the favorite outcome.

thefriedone · Jun 5, 2009

Alright, hoping to get back on track with FIVE plays tonight:

SFG/FLA - YES (-115)
TEX/BOS - YES (-130)
PIT/HOU - YES (-130)
MIN/SEA - NO (-120)
COL/STL - NO (-125)

thefriedone · Jun 5, 2009

SFG/FLA - YES (-115) loss
TEX/BOS - YES (-130) loss
PIT/HOU - YES (-130) loss
MIN/SEA - NO (-120) win
COL/STL - NO (-125) win

hno: Another losing day 2-3 (-1.75 units)

Overall 9-9 (-2 units)

SpartyCj · Jun 6, 2009

I really like the picks man, and I have actually been folowing them because God knows how much stress is avoided with only 1 inning, but do you think you'd have better results playing 2 or 3 picks a day maybe? Or tightening up the system even more?

Im probably completely wrong I just know the first day you hit 2 out of 3.

thefriedone · Jun 6, 2009

Thanks for the comment, Sparty. After this week's results I was also thinking about adjusting the thresholds for plays a bit, which I have done starting with today's plays. The adjustment weeded out one or two borderline bets today, so hopefully that will be for the better.

I may also try to come up with some sort of unit rating system for the plays as well, instead of flat betting everything. But I feel like I need to let the standard system play out for a little while longer before I get a sense for what the higher probability bets are.

Today's Plays:

MIN/SEA - NO (-135)
SFG/FLA - YES (-120)
ARI/SDG - NO (-130)

thefriedone · Jun 7, 2009

MIN/SEA - NO (-135) win
SFG/FLA - YES (-120) loss
ARI/SDG - NO (-130) loss

1-2 (-1.5 units) on the day

now overall 10-11 (-3.5 units)

I'm definitely going to tweak my system some more. I will probably change it so that pitching (runs allowed in first inning) is weighted more heavily than offensive production in the first inning.

thefriedone · Jun 7, 2009

Two plays today:

CHC/CIN - YES (-115)
MIN/SEA - NO (-135)

thefriedone · Jun 7, 2009

Can't seem to put together a winning day anymore...

CHC/CIN - YES (-115) win
MIN/SEA - NO (-135) los

1-1 (-0.35 units) on the day

Overall 11-12 (-3.85 units)