Betting 1 Game Per Day . is it the best way to make money?

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i truly believe that if we can chose only one game per day, we will definitely make money.. ive been finding that when i have 3 or more games per night, i end up losing money. its really stressful when your having a good week and one or two days fucks your whole week up.. by betting 1 game per day, by choosing that one game (which of course isn't easy), we should be able to benefit..

if i can get some opinion and theory in here it would greatly appreciated.. any input is welcome.. gyno, funny, bronco, flava, selective, venom, bitb?? :toast:
 

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i truly believe that if we can chose only one game per day, we will definitely make money.. ive been finding that when i have 3 or more games per night, i end up losing money. its really stressful when your having a good week and one or two days fucks your whole week up.. by betting 1 game per day, by choosing that one game (which of course isn't easy), we should be able to benefit..

if i can get some opinion and theory in here it would greatly appreciated.. any input is welcome.. gyno, funny, bronco, flava, selective, venom, bitb?? :toast:

You know whats funny about that is i have experimented with it.... i have a few different systems i have developed over the year, and of course the different systems spits out different plays for that day... I believe there is not "set" amount of games per day which will give you the best opportunity to make the most amount of money, but the "right" plays that fit the current system you are using at that time... i have had as many as 10+ plays per day and as little as 1.... it all depends on the system u are incorporating at that time.... i have gone 9-0 twice this season, and 0-8 once this season..... dont force yourself to have a set amount of plays, just keep studying the game, and the plays will come..... everyone goes thru slumps, im in a nasty one right now as i type this... but we all bounce out of it.....

GL man, you'll bounce back...

Funnyb
 

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I did this for a while with some good success. Then once i got up some money i couldn't stay disciplined and started betting more than 1 game a day and the losing occured. This works great but you need to stay disciplined, which is the hard part and bet 1 game a day.
 

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As a general rule, betting less is usually more.

Ask yourself why does it even have to be 1 game per day? Why can't you just look at the board and not force plays everyday?

Maybe it's one play every week. Maybe one day there are 3. You going to look at the board and have 3 games you love, but not bet the other 2 because you only bet 1 per day?

Value is value.

As a general rule, 1 play per day is better than 3 plays per day. The more you try to go against the books, the more you will lose.
 

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There's always going to be differing opinions on this. Take a look at the Classics Forum here...I think there's some good discussion there. I'll look for the link..
 

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Easy to agree with other people here. Picking one bet per day (or week or hour) is about ranking choices and eliminating weak ones. Depending on the individual, some gamblers can profit more or less. Possibly, higher ROI but not higher total profits if less money is risked. Question of quality versus quantity.
 

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You can bet as much as you want, if you truly believe you've capped it right. Just don't bet for the sake of the opportunity to bet.

Systems don't particularly work all the time. For example, in April I made a killing just on playing the "Over" ( +95 units, with a starting balance of 0.50 units - No joke!) but got killed in the month of May (-50 units) playing the "Over".
 

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I agree with the less is more theory, however, let's say there are 15 Wednesday games, and three of them are overlays, then why not play those three games, but usuall one best play per day is good for money management.
 

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As a general rule, betting less is usually more.

Ask yourself why does it even have to be 1 game per day? Why can't you just look at the board and not force plays everyday?

Maybe it's one play every week. Maybe one day there are 3. You going to look at the board and have 3 games you love, but not bet the other 2 because you only bet 1 per day?

Value is value.

As a general rule, 1 play per day is better than 3 plays per day. The more you try to go against the books, the more you will lose.

Yup.

If you're trying to find a game to play, you shouldn't be playing it.
 

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I think what MJ does is a perfect example of how less is more. He goes days without even having one play. Don't force it, like everyone else has said. If you're really in this to make money and not to take care of that "itch", then you should only play games that you have capped and feel are good solid plays, no matter how many that is. If there is a day when nothing feels good, skip that day. If you limit yourself to one play per day and on any given day and you see two or three that you really like, how are you going to decide which to play? What if the play you decide on loses but the other two win?
 

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I think what MJ does is a perfect example of how less is more. He goes days without even having one play. Don't force it, like everyone else has said. If you're really in this to make money and not to take care of that "itch", then you should only play games that you have capped and feel are good solid plays, no matter how many that is. If there is a day when nothing feels good, skip that day. If you limit yourself to one play per day and on any given day and you see two or three that you really like, how are you going to decide which to play? What if the play you decide on loses but the other two win?


I agree! Since thursday I have just picked certain games that I felt really good about after I was done capping them. Since then I have gone 5-1 and I have two I like tonight.

Dodgers and Cardinals both ML. Thinking about yanks RL.
 

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One long day

Betors naturally want to divide their plays into days, weeks, months, years, seasons, etc. I don't see the relevance. Taken to the extreme we are all just making bets over one very long day. The day began the first time we placed a wager. The day will end when we place our last wager. What is the big deal about how many wagers are placed during a 24 hour period?
 

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As a general rule, betting less is usually more.

This statement pretty much sums it up!

The first thing you need to establish is your "winning %" (I'm using that team loosly). If you can't pick 52.8% of even money bets, then the optimum number of plays is "0" per day. Conversly, hitting 55% on -170 favs will send you to the soup line just as fast.

Once you can define your capability as a capper, then you can apply it to number of plays or line value....whichever suits your style.
 

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I think it all depends on how you pick your bets.

Do you have a system? Do you just select your bets by guts?
You need to know how capable is your system in the long term.
If you have a system that hits higher than 55% at the end of the season and that system pick 1,3 or 5 bets per X time (day, week) then maybe you can stick with that way.
In my opinion and experience I have tried several systems and all of them finished with just two systems, one give me just one bet per day. The other pick between 2 - 6 bets per week and sometimes none.
Both of these systems hit higher than 60% in the long term but it takes me like 2-3 years to be patient and discipline, of course a couple thousands too.
 

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Why would you ever limit yourself to 1 bet per day? If you find that you have an edge over a posted #, why not exploit it? If your capping history tells you that you have won 58% of all bets that fit your criteria for a play and there are 10 plays that day that fit...why would you only choose 1?

Bottom line is...If you are someone who can consistently hit 53% of your wagers, the more you bet the larger your total units won will be. For example:

Person A bets 1 play per day and wins at a rate of 55%. After 100 days he will be up 5.5 units.

Person B bets an avg of 4 plays per day and wins at a rate of 55%. After 25 days he will be up 5.5 units. After 100 days he will be up 22 units.

For Person A to match Person B in total units won over the 100 days, he would have to hit at an astonishing 63%. Anyone who has been in this racket knows that 57-58% winners is extremely hard to do over the course of time. By betting all of the games that you find you have an edge over the posted # you allow yourself to turn a higher profit while hitting a lower percentage.

You will encounter a higher degree of swings with this style of betting, but over the course of time...if you can hit higher than 52.4% (on the typical -110) you will make a profit.
 

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All this talk about how many bets one should make a day to maximize profit is rather academic, as it is not contingent on the number of bets per day, rather whether or not someone has an edge on the games they bet.
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The reality is (as harsh as it may sound) is that over 95% of people on these forums (or outside these forums) lack any edge over the market that would allow them to overcome the vig. The effects of betting one game per day vs. many games per day is that is increase the daily variance of ones bankroll (and if the picker bets the same amount per game) reduces the nominal negative expected return of their bankroll, thus increases the probability that ones bankroll may increase in the short term (and give the appearance that this one game a day system is working). So a case can be made for these recreational bettors to bet less games, increase the duration for risk of ruin to come to fruition, and allow more days to bet and bet entertained.
<o:p> </o:p>
For the few that actually have an edge over the market place, the obvious answer is to bet as many games in which one can quantify an edge. Whether it is one or ten per day is contingent on the handicappers ability to quantify that edge, their margin of safety they want to implement, as well as the broader markets pricing efficiency (the more efficient the market, the less games an advantage gambler will be able to find an edge in). For these handicappers who should bet every game they have an edge in, the likelihood of the marginal quantified edge decreasing is high, thus the more games bet will reduce the ROI of their bankroll, but increase bankroll growth, the latter variable the more important one.
<o:p> </o:p>
All this “system” talk and placing bets predicated on chronology is nonsense.<o:p></o:p>
 

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All this talk about how many bets one should make a day to maximize profit is rather academic, as it is not contingent on the number of bets per day, rather whether or not someone has an edge on the games they bet.
<o:p> </o:p>
The reality is (as harsh as it may sound) is that over 95% of people on these forums (or outside these forums) lack any edge over the market that would allow them to overcome the vig. The effects of betting one game per day vs. many games per day is that is increase the daily variance of ones bankroll (and if the picker bets the same amount per game) reduces the nominal negative expected return of their bankroll, thus increases the probability that ones bankroll may increase in the short term (and give the appearance that this one game a day system is working). So a case can be made for these recreational bettors to bet less games, increase the duration for risk of ruin to come to fruition, and allow more days to bet and bet entertained.
<o:p> </o:p>
For the few that actually have an edge over the market place, the obvious answer is to bet as many games in which one can quantify an edge. Whether it is one or ten per day is contingent on the handicappers ability to quantify that edge, their margin of safety they want to implement, as well as the broader markets pricing efficiency (the more efficient the market, the less games an advantage gambler will be able to find an edge in). For these handicappers who should bet every game they have an edge in, the likelihood of the marginal quantified edge decreasing is high, thus the more games bet will reduce the ROI of their bankroll, but increase bankroll growth, the latter variable the more important one.
<o:p> </o:p>
All this “system” talk and placing bets predicated on chronology is nonsense.<o:p></o:p>

Basically the exact same thing I just stated above. The reality is exactly what you said...95% of the people out there cannot overcome the odds to beat the vig in the long run and for entertainment purposes would be better off using the 1-A-Day logic since they will end up losing less over the course of time.

Good to know there are actually a few intelligent people on this board and understand the the market.
 

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honestly fellas i appreciate all the help and insight... i simply just keep finding that when i have 3-5 games or more a day, i usually lose money...
 

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honestly fellas i appreciate all the help and insight... i simply just keep finding that when i have 3-5 games or more a day, i usually lose money...


Your right in my opion. Say you bet 4 games you would have to go 50-probably 75% to make a profit depending on juice.
 

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