Line reading 101

letsgohoosiers · Jun 3, 2009

Rule #1

Matchbook always has the best line for both sides. If they don't, go to the other book and bet that line. It's a winner.

Rule #2

Matchbook needs action on both sides to function. It's an exchange. If they aren't taking action on one side of the game (throwing out a ridiculous line that's nowhere close to .01), bet on that team. It's a winner.

These two rules would have netted you a potential 6-0 day, depending on how these games finish.

billhill999 · Jun 3, 2009

Been aware of that for awhile Hoosiers.
Good of you to share that advice with others.
WSEX is good as well.

SUorange88 · Jun 3, 2009

How would you read the late games?? Please explain for future reference...Thanks..

jevers77 · Jun 3, 2009

SUorange88 said:
How would you read the late games?? Please explain for future reference...Thanks..

If I understand correctly it looks like San Diego is the play since wager street is at +100 and matchbook is -101.

letsgohoosiers · Jun 3, 2009

billhill999 said:
Been aware of that for awhile Hoosiers.
Good of you to share that advice with others.
WSEX is good as well.

My friend, you are not an amateur line reader. :103631605

I had WSEX up there, they have some opinionated lines.

Not playing there currently because of the withdrawal issues they're having.

letsgohoosiers · Jun 3, 2009

jevers77 said:
If I understand correctly it looks like San Diego is the play since wager street is at +100 and matchbook is -101.

+105 now.

billhill999 · Jun 3, 2009

WSEX would not be my first choice when choosing an exchange, however they do provide interesting options from time to time.

SUorange88 · Jun 3, 2009

My question is how do you determine if a side is a play or not... I use a similiar method foe NBA but how do you you determine a play in baseball?? Thanks...

billhill999 · Jun 3, 2009

This is how I 'cap.
First, before I even look at an opening line, I look at the matchup, starting pitchers, weather conditions, etc. etc.
Then I determine in my mind what the line should be.
Then I compare that number to the Vegas number.
If there is a discrepency in the two numbers in my favor, I will play my play.
Before making any play, I look at the bullpens also, which team has a gas can bullpen, and which teams closer or elite setup man is not eligible because of previous day(s) work.
Used to be back in the day, bullpen 'capping was not that important, the last 15-20 years, very important.

So to recap, keep an eye on line movement, starting pitchers, bullpens, weather conditons, and who's hot and who's not.

Professional total 'cappers monitor home plate umpires, which umpire is a pitchers umpire and which umpire is a hitters umpire, but that is another story for another day.

Funnyb25 · Jun 3, 2009

letsgohoosiers said:
Rule #1

Matchbook always has the best line for both sides. If they don't, go to the other book and bet that line. It's a winner.

Rule #2

Matchbook needs action on both sides to function. It's an exchange. If they aren't taking action on one side of the game (throwing out a ridiculous line that's nowhere close to .01), bet on that team. It's a winner.

These two rules would have netted you a potential 6-0 day, depending on how these games finish.

more specific on rule #1 please.... use todays games as examples

SUorange88 · Jun 3, 2009

That is my question as well?? I know how to cap a baseball game... You stated that reading lines off Matchbook will give you TONS of winners... Can you be MORE specific on how you read a "PLAY" off of Rule#1 and Rule#2 based on tonights lines as an example...Curious how you deterime when something is a play off the Matchbook line..

letsgohoosiers · Jun 3, 2009

billhill999 said:
This is how I 'cap.
First, before I even look at an opening line, I look at the matchup, starting pitchers, weather conditions, etc. etc.
Then I determine in my mind what the line should be.
Then I compare that number to the Vegas number.
If there is a discrepency in the two numbers in my favor, I will play my play.
Before making any play, I look at the bullpens also, which team has a gas can bullpen, and which teams closer or elite setup man is not eligible because of previous day(s) work.
Used to be back in the day, bullpen 'capping was not that important, the last 15-20 years, very important.

So to recap, keep an eye on line movement, starting pitchers, bullpens, weather conditons, and who's hot and who's not.

Professional total 'cappers monitor home plate umpires, which umpire is a pitchers umpire and which umpire is a hitters umpire, but that is another story for another day.

pops69's spreadsheet is amazing for the umpire/weather/statistics.

Line predictions work well. Find a bunch of stats, find out the correlation to the total points, and predict lines. Bet on the games with the large differences.

Funnyb25 · Jun 3, 2009

waiting for answer on Rule #1

thanks

letsgohoosiers · Jun 3, 2009

SUorange88 said:
That is my question as well?? I know how to cap a baseball game... You stated that reading lines off Matchbook will give you TONS of winners... Can you be MORE specific on how you read a "PLAY" off of Rule#1 and Rule#2 based on tonights lines as an example...Curious how you deterime when something is a play off the Matchbook line..

Because Matchbook has .01 lines, they almost always have the best line out there for both sides. When they don't, it's an arbitrage opportunity (meaning you can bet both sides and guarantee profit). However, rather than bet both sides, I've found it more profitable to listen to what Matchbook is telling you since their line is the sharpest.

In an example, Matchbook had KC +146, and BetPhoenix had TAM -143. You go against Matchbook, taking Tampa -143.

Matchbook features .01 lines, although some games with high juice have ~.05 lines. There are times near the closing number when one of the numbers is out of wack, and there's a .30+ line. That's because there simply is too much demand on one side - this is an exchange and you need to agree on a number. When you see the .30 line, you bet on the team with the line that is way off.

Take the BOS-DET game for example. Boston was around -145 at all the books. At Matchbook, they're -187. No one is going to bet -187, the book is showing a terrible number because it's a winner.

msmith2179 · Jun 3, 2009

Funnyb25 said:
waiting for answer on Rule #1

thanks

This is how I take it but I could be wrong. No matter what game it is if you like a team, Matchbook should have the best line for that team. If they don't have the best line. Then bet that team.

Examples: I liked the Red Sox, Matchbook was -187, clearly thats not the best line. So play it. They're playing Detroit well matchbook has the best line for them, so you wouldn't play them. Boston won.

Here's another that I don't understand. I liked the White sox and they didn't have the best line. But they didn't have the best line for Oakland either so I don't know what you would've done there.

I'm pretty confused to.

billhill999 · Jun 3, 2009

Another case was the Braves the other night, total was 8.5 -150.
Nobody in their right mind would bet a total laying 50 cents.
Long story short, game was nine by the third inning.

I was on NYY under 10.5 +106 tonight.
Joe Square loved the over with that Ranger gas can starting in Yankee Stadium yet.

+106 :toast:

Joe Square gets killed yet again.
God Bless Joe Square.

dangots0uL · Jun 3, 2009

wow... where cna i get this spread sheet?

billhill999 · Jun 3, 2009

See pops69
(not to be confused with po69)

letsgohoosiers · Jun 3, 2009

msmith2179 said:
Here's another that I don't understand. I liked the White sox and they didn't have the best line. But they didn't have the best line for Oakland either so I don't know what you would've done there.

I'm pretty confused to.

That one wasn't perfect, it was a .20 line that was off on each side. However, looking at other books and at the line movement, you can tell it was off towards Oakland. Should probably not be included.

Funnyb25 · Jun 3, 2009

from what i see... the white sox had the higest line at matchbook over the other books and it was a loser...

Line reading 101

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