Revon Friday Play with Analysis

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Cubs -$1.25 (Zambrano) at Reds (Owings)

Analysis: Carlos Zambrano is back from suspension and raring to go as he looks to pick up his 100th career win. I see that happening in this matchup.

Zambrano has a very strong history against the Reds, particularly at Great American Ballpark. Zambrano is 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA when pitching in Cincinnati. He's held the Reds scoreless for the last 22 1/3 innings at Great American Ballpark.

The Reds' lineup is weak right now and vulnerable to a power right-hander like Zambrano minus Joey Votto and with Jay Bruce in an 0-for-17 slump.

The flip side of this handicap is a fade on Reds starter Micah Owings. The guy is a good athlete and one of the best-hitting pitchers. But let's face facts, Owings isn't a very good pitcher. His career numbers are 17-23 with a 5.02 ERA.

Owings isn't in good form either. He's 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA in his last three starts. Owings is particularly vulnerable at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark being a high ball, flyball type pitcher.

One of the keys to the Cubs' offense is Derek Lee. His bat has come alive. He's batting .392 in his last 14 games.

The price isn't too high to back the better team with the much better starting pitcher.
 

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