Nailed my $10 000 pick on the Jays ML +138 on Friday and hit my huge $5000 play on the Mariners yesterday at -102. I am red hot right now and as tempting as it is to go nuts and bet 10-15K on a game today, I find that weekend games are a little bit strange sometimes and handicapping baseball on weekends is nothing like handicapping baseball on weeknights. Sundays bring a different feel to the game because some teams are closing out series and some teams are flying out that very same night or afternoon. Onto business. I am keeping this another $5000 play for the simple fact that if I do lose one, I want to still be up for the weekend. Enough talking about my gambling ways/habits. I do what I want with my money and that's all that matters. So today we have:
Washington Nationals ML -101
Bunch of doubters when I posted the Jays, bunch of doubters when I posted the Mariners. The bottom line is that I post winners and as much as we all like to fade the worst team in baseball, I actually think they are about to turn the corner and start winning some games right about. Washington has not won two straight games since May 8 and May 9and there is some big time motivation on this team right now to finally get back to the win streak column. The Nationals were dominant yesterday in Game 2 of this series and we all know they have their bats going so the only issue left is the issue of getting some good pitching. Before I get into details about why Washington will win, did you guys know that:
Washington Nationals ML -101
Bunch of doubters when I posted the Jays, bunch of doubters when I posted the Mariners. The bottom line is that I post winners and as much as we all like to fade the worst team in baseball, I actually think they are about to turn the corner and start winning some games right about. Washington has not won two straight games since May 8 and May 9and there is some big time motivation on this team right now to finally get back to the win streak column. The Nationals were dominant yesterday in Game 2 of this series and we all know they have their bats going so the only issue left is the issue of getting some good pitching. Before I get into details about why Washington will win, did you guys know that:
***76% OF THE PUBLIC IS ON THE NY METS***
That raises huge alarm bells for me right there because you cannot have that much money flowing on a team that is playing this poorly and like we have seen with teams like the Cubs and Braves, you cannot snap out of those streaks until you return home. For all of you taking the Mets, please tell me you realize that you are betting on a Mets team that is batting .258 in their last 5 games versus righties and a Mets team that is without Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes? The Nats have a young pitcher on the mound who now has three career starts under his belt. Check this out about the new guy:
If you don't know anything about CRAIG STAMMEN (Nats Pitcher) please continue reading.
Sure his three starts in the majors have been both good and bad but Stammen has some good stuff. In the Minors he did very well:
Stammen's AAA Starts this season
7 Starts
4-2 Record
40 IP's
8 ER's
1.80 ERA
1.03 WHIP
Stammen has already faced Hernandez and it was a 6-1 loss at the new Mets Stadium but a) that was his first road start and he allowed only 3 ER's and b) he has started two games at home this season and should be comfortable coming into this game. Let's take a quick look at Stammen's two home starts this season (one was a win, the other was a loss):
Stammen Home Start #1 vs. Pittsburgh (5-4 Win)
Stammen had a 3-1 lead heading into the 7th inning but he made a mistake against Adam Laroche and just like that the Pirates had the lead. I personally think he was left in there a bit too long but the Home Run pitch was a mistake, the Nats bullpen is not reliable. Nonetheless, Stammen pitched very well and one mistake was the only reason he left the game down a run but the batters picked it up for him and got him the win.
Stammen Home Starts #2 vs. San Francisco (10-6 Win)
Stammen made a mistake to Aaron Rowand on the opening few pitches of the game and then he allowed a double to Randy Winn with 1 out. After that he retired 11 straight Giants batters. NO MATTER WHAT, KEEP IN MIND THAT STAMMEN BEAT LINCECUM in this game. Once again he kept his team in the game and left after 6.0 innings down 5-4 only to have the bats come to life and pick him up for another win.
SO THE NATIONALS ARE 2-0 WHEN STAMMEN PITCHES AT HOME AND HE WILL NO DOUBT BE A LOT CALMER IN HIS SECOND START AGAINST THE NEW YORK METS IN AS MANY WEEKS.
Livan Hernandez, out of nowhere, is back in business and pitching well in the Majors but before you guys get all crazy about the way he is pitching, please understand that Hernandez allowed 9 hits against Washington in his home starts two weeks ago but the Nats suck on the road and they failed to cash in a bunch of scoring chances. Well please understand that Washington is playing a lot better since that game and they do have the motivation of winning two in a row.
Washington is batting .280 versus righties in their last 5 games and despite getting the complete game win at home against this Nats team, Livan is probably in for a nice little surprise against an offense that is all of a sudden batting better than most teams in the Majors in their last five games despite losing. IF YOU ARE GOING TO GO AGAINST LIVAN HERNANDEZ, THE ROAD AND THE DAYTIME IS WHERE YOU WANT TO DO IT because he has struggled with both. So once again as nice as it was for Hernandez to win against the Nats at home two weeks ago, none of these stats applied:
Livan Hernandez Away Starts: 6 Starts, 2-1 Record, 4.89 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, Opponents batting .317
Livan Hernandez Home Starts: 4 Starts, 2-0 Record, 3.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Opponents batting .289
----------------------------------------------
Livan Hernandez Day Starts: 2 Starts, 1-1 Record, 7.84 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, Opponents batting .372
Livan Hernandez Night Starts: 8 Starts, 3-0 Record, 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Opponents batting .290
So you can see the very large difference between the way he pitches in day games (he has been lit up twice in two daytime starts this season) and the way he pitches away from home. Washington managed 9 hits but only 1 run two weeks ago against Hernandez and now that they are at home, during the daytime, expect a lot more runs and a huge home win. THE NATIONALS ARE ON FIRE IN DAY GAMES:
Ryan Zimmerman is batting .290 in daytime games
Adam Dunn is batting .291 in daytime games
Cristian Guzman is batting .438 in daytime games
Nick Johnson is batting .348 in daytime games
Austin Kearns is batting .317 in daytime games
Elijah Dukes is batting .382 in daytime games
Willie Harris is batting .304 in daytime games
What more can I say about the Nationals? They are going up against a pitcher that has been horrendous in day games, that they have seen two weeks ago and already have a good feel for and they have already won both games for their rookie pitcher the two times he has pitched at home. With their first two game win streak in over a month on the line, expect this team to get the win. Some final things you need to know about this game:
Alright so the Nationals are about to win a lot more games in coming weeks than they did the entire season because their pitching is finally starting to come around, their bats are hitting well and THE BULLPEN IS FINALLY ON PAR with the rest of the league, if not better...so there is a winning formula. The public gets massacred today, get ready please. Nats to the bank!
CASH MONEY!!!!
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
If you don't know anything about CRAIG STAMMEN (Nats Pitcher) please continue reading.
Sure his three starts in the majors have been both good and bad but Stammen has some good stuff. In the Minors he did very well:
Stammen's AAA Starts this season
7 Starts
4-2 Record
40 IP's
8 ER's
1.80 ERA
1.03 WHIP
Stammen has already faced Hernandez and it was a 6-1 loss at the new Mets Stadium but a) that was his first road start and he allowed only 3 ER's and b) he has started two games at home this season and should be comfortable coming into this game. Let's take a quick look at Stammen's two home starts this season (one was a win, the other was a loss):
Stammen Home Start #1 vs. Pittsburgh (5-4 Win)
Stammen had a 3-1 lead heading into the 7th inning but he made a mistake against Adam Laroche and just like that the Pirates had the lead. I personally think he was left in there a bit too long but the Home Run pitch was a mistake, the Nats bullpen is not reliable. Nonetheless, Stammen pitched very well and one mistake was the only reason he left the game down a run but the batters picked it up for him and got him the win.
Stammen Home Starts #2 vs. San Francisco (10-6 Win)
Stammen made a mistake to Aaron Rowand on the opening few pitches of the game and then he allowed a double to Randy Winn with 1 out. After that he retired 11 straight Giants batters. NO MATTER WHAT, KEEP IN MIND THAT STAMMEN BEAT LINCECUM in this game. Once again he kept his team in the game and left after 6.0 innings down 5-4 only to have the bats come to life and pick him up for another win.
SO THE NATIONALS ARE 2-0 WHEN STAMMEN PITCHES AT HOME AND HE WILL NO DOUBT BE A LOT CALMER IN HIS SECOND START AGAINST THE NEW YORK METS IN AS MANY WEEKS.
Livan Hernandez, out of nowhere, is back in business and pitching well in the Majors but before you guys get all crazy about the way he is pitching, please understand that Hernandez allowed 9 hits against Washington in his home starts two weeks ago but the Nats suck on the road and they failed to cash in a bunch of scoring chances. Well please understand that Washington is playing a lot better since that game and they do have the motivation of winning two in a row.
Washington is batting .280 versus righties in their last 5 games and despite getting the complete game win at home against this Nats team, Livan is probably in for a nice little surprise against an offense that is all of a sudden batting better than most teams in the Majors in their last five games despite losing. IF YOU ARE GOING TO GO AGAINST LIVAN HERNANDEZ, THE ROAD AND THE DAYTIME IS WHERE YOU WANT TO DO IT because he has struggled with both. So once again as nice as it was for Hernandez to win against the Nats at home two weeks ago, none of these stats applied:
Livan Hernandez Away Starts: 6 Starts, 2-1 Record, 4.89 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, Opponents batting .317
Livan Hernandez Home Starts: 4 Starts, 2-0 Record, 3.55 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Opponents batting .289
----------------------------------------------
Livan Hernandez Day Starts: 2 Starts, 1-1 Record, 7.84 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, Opponents batting .372
Livan Hernandez Night Starts: 8 Starts, 3-0 Record, 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, Opponents batting .290
So you can see the very large difference between the way he pitches in day games (he has been lit up twice in two daytime starts this season) and the way he pitches away from home. Washington managed 9 hits but only 1 run two weeks ago against Hernandez and now that they are at home, during the daytime, expect a lot more runs and a huge home win. THE NATIONALS ARE ON FIRE IN DAY GAMES:
Ryan Zimmerman is batting .290 in daytime games
Adam Dunn is batting .291 in daytime games
Cristian Guzman is batting .438 in daytime games
Nick Johnson is batting .348 in daytime games
Austin Kearns is batting .317 in daytime games
Elijah Dukes is batting .382 in daytime games
Willie Harris is batting .304 in daytime games
What more can I say about the Nationals? They are going up against a pitcher that has been horrendous in day games, that they have seen two weeks ago and already have a good feel for and they have already won both games for their rookie pitcher the two times he has pitched at home. With their first two game win streak in over a month on the line, expect this team to get the win. Some final things you need to know about this game:
- Washington's bullpen has an ERA of 3.18 the last 10 games
- The Mets have lost 10 of their last 12 games played on a Sunday
- The Mets have won 1 of their last 6 road games
Alright so the Nationals are about to win a lot more games in coming weeks than they did the entire season because their pitching is finally starting to come around, their bats are hitting well and THE BULLPEN IS FINALLY ON PAR with the rest of the league, if not better...so there is a winning formula. The public gets massacred today, get ready please. Nats to the bank!
CASH MONEY!!!!
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
<<
