I've always wanted a system for baseball that gives me more action all summer. It should be simple, low cost (dog lines or low juice) and easy to run.
This is my attempt at that. I've looked at many "chase" systems which often do well..until they have a bad run, and then a few bad chases breaks the bank. 1,2, 4 unit progressions lose 7 units with a loss....way too much risk.
Anything over a 2 game chase is too much risk in my opinion. I think I can justify a 2 game chase by using the better odds of Run Lines.
The way I look at it...it's not so much a chase as looking at a 2 game window of opportunity to win one Run line wager.
We have 2 games to win one Run line for profit using just a simple 1 unit, 2 unit progression with plus odds or low juice.
To give us the best chance at winning one Run line wager out of two attempts...this is my plan.
1. Each chase will involve ONLY the first two games of a series.
2. The chases will be determined by finding match ups with the very best performance stats of the previous 25 games. We will chase only the very best teams vs. the very worst teams of previous 25 games...based on a set of performance stats. There must be a wide difference between the two teams performance in the last 25 games. We need more than just a win...we also need the matchups with the best chance of winning by -1.5 runs.
3. A last 7 games filter will also be used to weed out a team in a very bad recent hitting slump.
I'm running out of time...I can go into more detail later.
Here are the first chases for this weekend series...sorry for the late post.
Tampa -1.5 -120
Yankees -1.5 -120
This is my attempt at that. I've looked at many "chase" systems which often do well..until they have a bad run, and then a few bad chases breaks the bank. 1,2, 4 unit progressions lose 7 units with a loss....way too much risk.
Anything over a 2 game chase is too much risk in my opinion. I think I can justify a 2 game chase by using the better odds of Run Lines.
The way I look at it...it's not so much a chase as looking at a 2 game window of opportunity to win one Run line wager.
We have 2 games to win one Run line for profit using just a simple 1 unit, 2 unit progression with plus odds or low juice.
To give us the best chance at winning one Run line wager out of two attempts...this is my plan.
1. Each chase will involve ONLY the first two games of a series.
2. The chases will be determined by finding match ups with the very best performance stats of the previous 25 games. We will chase only the very best teams vs. the very worst teams of previous 25 games...based on a set of performance stats. There must be a wide difference between the two teams performance in the last 25 games. We need more than just a win...we also need the matchups with the best chance of winning by -1.5 runs.
3. A last 7 games filter will also be used to weed out a team in a very bad recent hitting slump.
I'm running out of time...I can go into more detail later.
Here are the first chases for this weekend series...sorry for the late post.
Tampa -1.5 -120
Yankees -1.5 -120
