Lifelock 400 @Michigan

Cup YTD

+06.87 units (Match-Ups)
+12.58 units (Props)
+04.59 units (Outrights)

Total: +24.04 units

Got a lot riding today, need to continue the streak.

Match-Ups

2.00 units Kasey Kahne (+100) over Clint Bowyer (@5dimes)
Feast or famine with Kahne at Michigan, in the last 6 races he has finishes of 2nd, 4th and 1st but the other three are 40th, 31st and 32nd. Thinking I'll get the good side of him today. Has looked good the last 3 races and was pretty good in quals and practice. Good shot at a Top 10 or better.
Bowyer has shown some life the past two races after a horrible streak of 6 straight races with only one Top 20, however not ready to jump on the bandwagon just yet.

2.00 units Matt Kenseth (-115) over Mark Martin (@thegreek)
Love Kenseth at this track (9.1 avg. in 19 starts/12 top 10's in 15 starts includes 9 Top 5's) another Top 5 is probable... not sure if Mark is up to that today despite being very good in practice yesterday.

1.50 units Tony Stewart (+120) over Jimmie Johnson (@thegreek)
Stewart is hot right now and has been quite good here (6.6 avg L5) tough going against the 48 but ridin' the hotshoe with good value.

1.50 units Reed Sorenson (-115) over Elliott Sadler (@thegreek)
Sorenson has been a consistent Top 20 or better over the past 7 races while his teammate continues to struggle.

1.50 units Marcos Ambrose (-130) over David Stremme (@thegreek)
Two teams seemingly headed in two different directions. Ambrose has been a surprise this year already scoring 3 Top 10's including last week. Stremme hasn't even seen the Top 20 in 6 races.

1.50 units Joey Logano (-135) over David Ragan (@5dimes)
Looking for "Kid Logano" to do very well here, think this is a place that suits his driving style. Was very good in practice yesterday and may even ride a little momentum from last night's win in the NWS. Top 10 is a possibilty.
This play may be risky only for the fact that this is a Roush dominated track and Ragan did very well here last year with 2 Top 10's but they have been so far off this year (no Top 10's since Daytona to begin the year), they will have to prove something to me because I'm not sure if they are capable of a Top 10 today.

1.50 units Casey Mears (+125) over Kevin Harvick (@5dimes)
Another case of a team (Harvick) that has done well here in the past but is currently struggling(no Top 10's in 10 races with a 27.8 avg). His teammate Mears has actually shown improvement of late with 2 Top 10's in the last 6 starts.

Props

3.00 units Matt Kenseth (-115) under 7.5 (@5dimes)
Has covered this number in 6 0f last 8 here(including 3 in a row)

2.00 units Tony Stewart (-125) under 7.5 (@5dimes)
Why not? Covered this in 4 of last 5 '09 starts as well as 4 of last 5 at Michigan

2.00 units Joey Logano (-125) under 18.5 (@5dimes)
Think he has a shot at a Top 10 today

Outrights

0.75 unit Carl Edwards (+625) @thegreek
2 wins in the last 4 races here

0.50 unit Matt Kenseth (+1100) @thegreek
0.50 unit Tony Stewart (+1100) @thegreek
0.50 unit Brian Vickers (+1000) @thegreek

GL to Everyone!

I am going huge on Kyle Busch outright and Kyle Busch over Greg Biffle in head to head.

gl today boxer

Maxx40 said:

gl today boxer

Click to expand...

Thanks you too Max... Its been a rough last two weeks for me in Nascar. Last week I had Carl Edwards outright.... and the week before I had Tony Stewart outright.... Both had chances to win and both came in second place.

ouch...unfortunately i know what that feels like...hop its turns for you today

Maxx40 said:

ouch...unfortunately i know what that feels like...hop its turns for you today

Click to expand...

My drivers have just been leading 75% of the race laps at the wrong time.

What a finish. A friend of mine just called me who I talked to prior of the race starting and his exact quote was. "Are you fucking kidding me"...... He bet Greg Biffle and Jimmy Johnson to win outright. I was laughing so hard when they both ran out of gas.... I thought I had it bad the last two weeks with two 2nd place finishes. But that definitely tops it.

tough day. Tough week for me.....

Absolutely the worst job I have ever done capping a race.....very fortunate I didn't lose more than I did. With the exception of Kahne (which was eventually a loser) had every driver pegged wrong....really a piss poor job and a black mark on what has been a pretty good year so far...tough lick on the $$$$$$ Sunday:

2-5 on match-ups(-6.25 units)
1-2 on props (-3.95 units)
0-4 on outrights (-2.25 units)

Total: -12.45 units