Updated: June 13, 2009, 6:54 PM ET
Inside Carpenter-Lee matchup
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<cite class="source"> Special to ESPN.com
</cite>
<!-- end mod-article-title --> <!-- begin story body --> Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SUNDAY
<!--INLINE MUG-->
Lee
<!--END INLINE MUG--> <!--INLINE MUG-->
Carpenter
<!--END INLINE MUG--> 1. Carpenter vs. Lee on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball
Two of the top pitchers from their respective leagues square off when the Cardinals play the Indians on Sunday night: It's Cliff Lee, who has the seventh-best starter ERA in the American League, versus Chris Carpenter, who is unbeaten in seven starts and has allowed only six earned runs in 44 innings pitched.
Cliff Lee (3.17 ERA, 3-6 record) Lee throws a fastball 75 percent of the time, and it's getting hit more often this season; batters are hitting .309 against his fastball, up from last season's .266. The southpaw commands the pitch on all four corners of the strike zone:
Lee's fastball location (pct. of pitches)
<table> <thead> <tr><th>
</th> <th>Away</th> <th>Inside</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>Up</td> <td>15.3 </td> <td>15.1</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>Down</td> <td>14.4</td> <td>14.0</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Hitting the corners is crucial for Lee. Opponents are batting .357 against his fastballs that finish in the middle elevation of the zone, and .373 when they're on the center of the plate. It's important for Lee to keep changing the hitter's eye level. Opponents are 12-for-20 (.600 BAA) when he doubles up fastballs down, but 4-for-19 (.211 BAA) when he goes high to low with consecutive fastballs, and 3-for-26 (.115 BAA) when he doubles up high heaters. Although the batting average against Lee's non-fastballs has risen from .229 last year to .269, he has done a better job preventing hard contact. The well-hit average versus non-fastballs is only .096 compared to last season's .144.
Left-handed batters are hitting .213 against his curveball, which has been most effective following a fastball up (50 percent swing-and-miss percentage, .200 BAA). Right-handed batters are hitting .268 versus Lee's changeup, which has been ineffective following a pitch down in the zone (9-for-24, .375 BAA), but has worked well after a pitch in the middle of the zone (39 swing-and-miss percentage, 0-for-9).
Chris Carpenter (1.23 ERA, 4-0 record) Carpenter has been nearly unhittable late in the count; opponents are batting only .093 against him this year (.217 league average), so they've looked to get to him early in the count:
Carpenter early in the count
<table> <thead> <tr><th>
</th> <th>BAA </th> <th>Swing pct.</th> <th>In-play pct.</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>Carpenter</td> <td>.254</td> <td>39.7 </td> <td>47.6</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>MLB average</td> <td>.328</td> <td>37.0</td> <td>42.3</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
He has owned the inside part of the plate with his fastball:
Carpenter's fastballs on inner third of plate
<table> <thead> <tr><th>
</th> <th>BAA </th> <th>Well-hit avg.</th> <th>Strike pct.</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>Carpenter</td> <td>.063</td> <td>.063 </td> <td>66.7</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>MLB average</td> <td>.254</td> <td>.192 </td> <td>59.6</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Carpenter's main secondary pitch is a curve that he throws 23 percent of the time, with a .074 batting average against. He keeps it down 72 percent of the time; opponents are 0-for-19 against his low deuce, and have chased 35 percent of curves below the knees. A curveball down after a fastball middle-up has been a devastating sequence for Carpenter: Batters have missed it on 43 percent of swings and gone 0-for-6.
Inside Carpenter-Lee matchup
Comment Email Print Share <script type="text/javascript"> var stobj = SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title:"Inside%20Edge:%20Inside%20Carpenter-Lee%20matchup", url:"http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=4256683", published: "2009-06-13" }); stobj.attachButton(document.getElementById("espnstlink")); </script>
<cite class="source"> Special to ESPN.com
</cite>
<!-- end mod-article-title --> <!-- begin story body --> Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SUNDAY
<!--INLINE MUG-->
Lee
<!--END INLINE MUG--> <!--INLINE MUG-->
Carpenter
<!--END INLINE MUG--> 1. Carpenter vs. Lee on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball
Two of the top pitchers from their respective leagues square off when the Cardinals play the Indians on Sunday night: It's Cliff Lee, who has the seventh-best starter ERA in the American League, versus Chris Carpenter, who is unbeaten in seven starts and has allowed only six earned runs in 44 innings pitched.
Cliff Lee (3.17 ERA, 3-6 record) Lee throws a fastball 75 percent of the time, and it's getting hit more often this season; batters are hitting .309 against his fastball, up from last season's .266. The southpaw commands the pitch on all four corners of the strike zone:
Lee's fastball location (pct. of pitches)
<table> <thead> <tr><th>
</th> <th>Away</th> <th>Inside</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>Up</td> <td>15.3 </td> <td>15.1</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>Down</td> <td>14.4</td> <td>14.0</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Hitting the corners is crucial for Lee. Opponents are batting .357 against his fastballs that finish in the middle elevation of the zone, and .373 when they're on the center of the plate. It's important for Lee to keep changing the hitter's eye level. Opponents are 12-for-20 (.600 BAA) when he doubles up fastballs down, but 4-for-19 (.211 BAA) when he goes high to low with consecutive fastballs, and 3-for-26 (.115 BAA) when he doubles up high heaters. Although the batting average against Lee's non-fastballs has risen from .229 last year to .269, he has done a better job preventing hard contact. The well-hit average versus non-fastballs is only .096 compared to last season's .144.
Left-handed batters are hitting .213 against his curveball, which has been most effective following a fastball up (50 percent swing-and-miss percentage, .200 BAA). Right-handed batters are hitting .268 versus Lee's changeup, which has been ineffective following a pitch down in the zone (9-for-24, .375 BAA), but has worked well after a pitch in the middle of the zone (39 swing-and-miss percentage, 0-for-9).
Chris Carpenter (1.23 ERA, 4-0 record) Carpenter has been nearly unhittable late in the count; opponents are batting only .093 against him this year (.217 league average), so they've looked to get to him early in the count:
Carpenter early in the count
<table> <thead> <tr><th>
</th> <th>BAA </th> <th>Swing pct.</th> <th>In-play pct.</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>Carpenter</td> <td>.254</td> <td>39.7 </td> <td>47.6</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>MLB average</td> <td>.328</td> <td>37.0</td> <td>42.3</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
He has owned the inside part of the plate with his fastball:
Carpenter's fastballs on inner third of plate
<table> <thead> <tr><th>
</th> <th>BAA </th> <th>Well-hit avg.</th> <th>Strike pct.</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>Carpenter</td> <td>.063</td> <td>.063 </td> <td>66.7</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>MLB average</td> <td>.254</td> <td>.192 </td> <td>59.6</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
Carpenter's main secondary pitch is a curve that he throws 23 percent of the time, with a .074 batting average against. He keeps it down 72 percent of the time; opponents are 0-for-19 against his low deuce, and have chased 35 percent of curves below the knees. A curveball down after a fastball middle-up has been a devastating sequence for Carpenter: Batters have missed it on 43 percent of swings and gone 0-for-6.
