I'm going to try and keep track of my MLB plays each day in this thread. went 2-1 (+$150) last time out which was Tuesday June 9th. Unfortunately, things have been insanely crazy at work so I have not had a chance to post since then... I'm experimenting with a variety of different handicapping theories on betting underdogs and overs. I was once a huge fan of the Stoffo System, which worked wonders for me for about 3 years. However, the past couple years it has pretty much broke even. Huge thanks to pops69 for all his data he provides for FREE on a daily basis. His spreadsheets are incredibly helpful and they save me tons of time each day. The man has forgotten more than I'll ever know about sports investing. Have a great day fellas...I will have a couple of plays up in a minute!
YTD: 2-1 (+1.5 units)
SF +105 (Zito)
I think this a great spot to bet the G-men. Zito is amazing at home, posting a 2.70 ERA. Lackey has been terrible for LAA, as he looks to be a shadow of his former self posting a road ERA of 6.75. The only thing I hate about betting the Giants is their putrid run production, as they only average 4 runs per game. However, the way Lackey has struggled I can easily see the Giants putting a 6 spot up against him. I love home dogs in all sports and I have to take the home dog here, with the better pitcher on the mound.
SF / LAA OVER 8.5 (+100)
I was kind of shocked to see this total so low. I was guessing it would open at 9 or even 9.5 with the way Lackey has been screwing the pooch. I use all sorts of data to look for OVER opportunities and this one stood out to me this morning. I use Sagarin’s NPERA as one of my handicapping tools and he has the total NPERA of both pitchers equaling 9.48 (almost a full run over the posted total). I also use the ERA of both pitchers in their last 3 starts as a tool. Lackey and Zito have combined for an awful 11.3 ERA in their last 3 starts combined (almost 3 full runs more than the posted total). Even though both offenses lack run production (they only combine to average 8.85 runs per game), I expect that there will be runs-a-plenty against these two pitchers. Good luck everybody!
SF +105 (Zito)
I think this a great spot to bet the G-men. Zito is amazing at home, posting a 2.70 ERA. Lackey has been terrible for LAA, as he looks to be a shadow of his former self posting a road ERA of 6.75. The only thing I hate about betting the Giants is their putrid run production, as they only average 4 runs per game. However, the way Lackey has struggled I can easily see the Giants putting a 6 spot up against him. I love home dogs in all sports and I have to take the home dog here, with the better pitcher on the mound.
SF / LAA OVER 8.5 (+100)
I was kind of shocked to see this total so low. I was guessing it would open at 9 or even 9.5 with the way Lackey has been screwing the pooch. I use all sorts of data to look for OVER opportunities and this one stood out to me this morning. I use Sagarin’s NPERA as one of my handicapping tools and he has the total NPERA of both pitchers equaling 9.48 (almost a full run over the posted total). I also use the ERA of both pitchers in their last 3 starts as a tool. Lackey and Zito have combined for an awful 11.3 ERA in their last 3 starts combined (almost 3 full runs more than the posted total). Even though both offenses lack run production (they only combine to average 8.85 runs per game), I expect that there will be runs-a-plenty against these two pitchers. Good luck everybody!
YTD: 3-2 (+1.5 units)
Well, we split 1-1 last night, winning the OVER but losing the Giants side selection. In other words, we kissed our sister. On to tonight, as I like a number of totals with the full slate of games returning.
Brewers @ Indians UNDER 8.5 (+105)
WOW! I couldn’t believe this total was posted so high. I have this total at 7 runs simply because Gallardo has been lights out all year long, posting a slim 2.88 ERA. Though Sowers for Cleveland has not had his best stuff, he has done much better over his last three starts. In fact, both pitchers combine for only a 4.28 ERA over their last 3 starts. Sowers is also a much better pitcher at home, which should also help our cause for an under. Another factor I like is that these teams combined for 26 runs last night. In baseball, this type of offensive output doesn’t happen on a regular basis and is often followed by a 3-1 type of ballgame (which is what I see happening here).
Astros vs. Rangers UNDER 9
Here’s another example of where I’m simply playing the percentages with two great pitchers. Wandy Rodriguez has really come into his own and been the dominant starter the Astros knew he could be. He has posted a tiny 2.82 ERA for the season, while his opponent Kevin Millwood has a smaller 2.72 ERA. I had this total also set at 7, which gives us a ton of value according to my numbers. I do hate taking an under with a good hitting team like the Rangers, but with these two stud pitchers.
Mets vs. Orioles Over 9.5
I capped out this total to be 10.5. We get two potent offensive ball clubs, and even though Pelfrey and Guthrie are decent pitchers they are by no means the cream of the crop. In fact, over their last 3 games Pelfrey and Guthrie have combined to post an atrocious 14.24 ERA. Both respective offenses average over 4.5 runs per game so I think we have a great chance of seeing a 7-5 type of ballgame.
D’Backs vs. Royals Under 8.5
Again, I have this total at 7 as well even though both pitchers aren’t high profile. Doug Davis and Gil Meche are ranked in the top 25 of their respective leagues even though no one has never heard of them. Also, both of these offenses are amongst the worst in their leagues. The main reason I like this play though is because these 2 pitchers combine to post a 3.47 ERA in their last 3 starts. Good luck tonight everybody
Well, we split 1-1 last night, winning the OVER but losing the Giants side selection. In other words, we kissed our sister. On to tonight, as I like a number of totals with the full slate of games returning.
Brewers @ Indians UNDER 8.5 (+105)
WOW! I couldn’t believe this total was posted so high. I have this total at 7 runs simply because Gallardo has been lights out all year long, posting a slim 2.88 ERA. Though Sowers for Cleveland has not had his best stuff, he has done much better over his last three starts. In fact, both pitchers combine for only a 4.28 ERA over their last 3 starts. Sowers is also a much better pitcher at home, which should also help our cause for an under. Another factor I like is that these teams combined for 26 runs last night. In baseball, this type of offensive output doesn’t happen on a regular basis and is often followed by a 3-1 type of ballgame (which is what I see happening here).
Astros vs. Rangers UNDER 9
Here’s another example of where I’m simply playing the percentages with two great pitchers. Wandy Rodriguez has really come into his own and been the dominant starter the Astros knew he could be. He has posted a tiny 2.82 ERA for the season, while his opponent Kevin Millwood has a smaller 2.72 ERA. I had this total also set at 7, which gives us a ton of value according to my numbers. I do hate taking an under with a good hitting team like the Rangers, but with these two stud pitchers.
Mets vs. Orioles Over 9.5
I capped out this total to be 10.5. We get two potent offensive ball clubs, and even though Pelfrey and Guthrie are decent pitchers they are by no means the cream of the crop. In fact, over their last 3 games Pelfrey and Guthrie have combined to post an atrocious 14.24 ERA. Both respective offenses average over 4.5 runs per game so I think we have a great chance of seeing a 7-5 type of ballgame.
D’Backs vs. Royals Under 8.5
Again, I have this total at 7 as well even though both pitchers aren’t high profile. Doug Davis and Gil Meche are ranked in the top 25 of their respective leagues even though no one has never heard of them. Also, both of these offenses are amongst the worst in their leagues. The main reason I like this play though is because these 2 pitchers combine to post a 3.47 ERA in their last 3 starts. Good luck tonight everybody
YTD: 6-3 (+3.5 units)
Well boys, we had a great 3-1 night last night, picking up +2 units. I thought we were going to sweep the board, but the Cleveland and Milwaukee bullpens stunk up the joint. Anyways, on to Wednesday where I like 4 more totals.
Nationals vs. Yankees OVER 11 (-130)
I hate laying this much damn juice for a total, but I can’t pass up an over at any price when Wang is pitching for the Yanks. What the hell is wrong with this former Cy Young candidate? He has the worst ERA I have personally ever seen and has shown no signs of improvement. Wang has a 20.55 ERA for the year and I can see him giving up 6 or 7 runs here. This plays right into our hands for taking the OVER. I also like the fact that these two teams combine to average 10.1 runs per game. I also like the fact that this game is in the launching pad known as the new Yankee Stadium, where home runs are always at a plenty.
Pirates vs. Twins OVER 9 (-105)
I love taking this over, as we get two mediocre pitchers. Liriano and Snell combine for an ERA of over 11, which gives us plenty of value. When I add up all my statistical systems, I had this total capped out at 10 runs. The only negatives to this play are that Crede is questionable and so is Cuddyer. Nevertheless, I think this one goes OVER!
Rays vs. Rockies UNDER 9.5
I was a bit shocked to see this total so high. I have this one capped out at 7.5 runs. This gives us two runs of value. David Price is a young phenom and I think he is finding his groove. I don’t like the fact that hes been walking a ton of hitters, but his dominant stuff makes him worth an UNDER look every start. I hope Price can make it into the 7th inning, as Joe Maddon has him on a strict 100 pitch count. I also like playing Aaron Cook Under, as he is a decent pitcher and has been on a roll his last 3 starts.
M’s vs. Padres OVER 8
I’m going to need a bottle of tums to get through this wager. I hate betting an OVER with two TERRIBLE offensive teams, but with two AWFUL pitchers on the hill Im hoping we see an OVER. Both Olson and Gaudin have been atrocious in their last 3 starts, combining to post a 12.65 ERA. I have this total at 10, so there is plenty of value.
Good luck everybody!
Well boys, we had a great 3-1 night last night, picking up +2 units. I thought we were going to sweep the board, but the Cleveland and Milwaukee bullpens stunk up the joint. Anyways, on to Wednesday where I like 4 more totals.
Nationals vs. Yankees OVER 11 (-130)
I hate laying this much damn juice for a total, but I can’t pass up an over at any price when Wang is pitching for the Yanks. What the hell is wrong with this former Cy Young candidate? He has the worst ERA I have personally ever seen and has shown no signs of improvement. Wang has a 20.55 ERA for the year and I can see him giving up 6 or 7 runs here. This plays right into our hands for taking the OVER. I also like the fact that these two teams combine to average 10.1 runs per game. I also like the fact that this game is in the launching pad known as the new Yankee Stadium, where home runs are always at a plenty.
Pirates vs. Twins OVER 9 (-105)
I love taking this over, as we get two mediocre pitchers. Liriano and Snell combine for an ERA of over 11, which gives us plenty of value. When I add up all my statistical systems, I had this total capped out at 10 runs. The only negatives to this play are that Crede is questionable and so is Cuddyer. Nevertheless, I think this one goes OVER!
Rays vs. Rockies UNDER 9.5
I was a bit shocked to see this total so high. I have this one capped out at 7.5 runs. This gives us two runs of value. David Price is a young phenom and I think he is finding his groove. I don’t like the fact that hes been walking a ton of hitters, but his dominant stuff makes him worth an UNDER look every start. I hope Price can make it into the 7th inning, as Joe Maddon has him on a strict 100 pitch count. I also like playing Aaron Cook Under, as he is a decent pitcher and has been on a roll his last 3 starts.
M’s vs. Padres OVER 8
I’m going to need a bottle of tums to get through this wager. I hate betting an OVER with two TERRIBLE offensive teams, but with two AWFUL pitchers on the hill Im hoping we see an OVER. Both Olson and Gaudin have been atrocious in their last 3 starts, combining to post a 12.65 ERA. I have this total at 10, so there is plenty of value.
Good luck everybody!
YTD: 8-5 (+3.2 units)
Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.3 units)
Basically, we kissed our sister again last night. I still can’t believe that SD and SEA didn’t score a damn run in the final 4 innings. I went to sleep when it was 4-3 in the 5th thinking we had an easy winner. That’s why we call it gambling. On to Thursday, where I like 4 unders.
Yankees vs. Nationals UNDER 10.5 (-115)
After last night’s shocking 5 run game, I’m coming right back with the UNDER in today’s game. I think Joba is finally coming into his own as a starter. He’s not quite there yet, but he has improved tremendously. I like him to keep the Nationals bats at bay today, even though this game is at the launching pad. My math has this total at 9.5 so we are getting a run of value according to my numbers. It usually takes both teams to do a bit of scoring in order for the total to go OVER, and I just don’t see the Nats getting more than a couple of runs against Joba today.
Rays vs. Rockies UNDER 9 (+105)
We cashed the under in this game last night, even though David Price didn’t do so hot. Both bullpens really came through for us, but today I’m hoping Garza can keep the hot Rockie bats subdued through 6 or 7 innings. He has been on fire as of late, showing dominant stuff in his last 3 starts. I had this total at 7.5 (8 when taking Coors into consideration) so I’ve got to go with the value side and hope both pitchers come through with quality starts.
Royals vs. D’backs UNDER 8 (-120)
Love this spot for the under, as we are getting possibly the best NL pitcher in Dan Haren going up against Hochevar, who has been lights out over his last 3 starts. Both these guys combine to post a tiny 4.03 ERA over their last 3 starts so they are in good current form. Throw in the fact that both offenses only combine to average eight and a half runs per game and I like this one even more.
Dodgers vs. A’s UNDER 7.5 (-120)
I don’t know who the hell this Mazzaro kid is, but damn he has some impressive numbers thus far. I had this total capped out to be 6.5 runs, so value is on our side like always. I also like the fact that Randy Wolf is on the hill for the Dodgers, who has been a solid starter all year long. Got to love taking an under with a Manny-less Dodger team.
Yesterday: 2-2 (-0.3 units)
Basically, we kissed our sister again last night. I still can’t believe that SD and SEA didn’t score a damn run in the final 4 innings. I went to sleep when it was 4-3 in the 5th thinking we had an easy winner. That’s why we call it gambling. On to Thursday, where I like 4 unders.
Yankees vs. Nationals UNDER 10.5 (-115)
After last night’s shocking 5 run game, I’m coming right back with the UNDER in today’s game. I think Joba is finally coming into his own as a starter. He’s not quite there yet, but he has improved tremendously. I like him to keep the Nationals bats at bay today, even though this game is at the launching pad. My math has this total at 9.5 so we are getting a run of value according to my numbers. It usually takes both teams to do a bit of scoring in order for the total to go OVER, and I just don’t see the Nats getting more than a couple of runs against Joba today.
Rays vs. Rockies UNDER 9 (+105)
We cashed the under in this game last night, even though David Price didn’t do so hot. Both bullpens really came through for us, but today I’m hoping Garza can keep the hot Rockie bats subdued through 6 or 7 innings. He has been on fire as of late, showing dominant stuff in his last 3 starts. I had this total at 7.5 (8 when taking Coors into consideration) so I’ve got to go with the value side and hope both pitchers come through with quality starts.
Royals vs. D’backs UNDER 8 (-120)
Love this spot for the under, as we are getting possibly the best NL pitcher in Dan Haren going up against Hochevar, who has been lights out over his last 3 starts. Both these guys combine to post a tiny 4.03 ERA over their last 3 starts so they are in good current form. Throw in the fact that both offenses only combine to average eight and a half runs per game and I like this one even more.
Dodgers vs. A’s UNDER 7.5 (-120)
I don’t know who the hell this Mazzaro kid is, but damn he has some impressive numbers thus far. I had this total capped out to be 6.5 runs, so value is on our side like always. I also like the fact that Randy Wolf is on the hill for the Dodgers, who has been a solid starter all year long. Got to love taking an under with a Manny-less Dodger team.
