Over 9.5 +105
Under 9.5 -125
Humidity is going to be up around 55% tonight which helps the home runs come in. And it is going to be sunny and 75 degrees as well.
Pavano is coming off of a bad start against the Royals in which he gave up 9 runs in 4.2 IP. But they only lost 0-9, so their bullpen did not allow any other runs after that. Pavano's start before that one entailed a 3 hit complete game against the struggling White Sox bats. He has just 16 BB in 76.2 IP this season. Pavano has faced some strong hitting AL teams such as BOS, NYY, TB, MN, and DET; who are all very successful offensively this year. But tonight they will face the Brewers, who are 2nd in the league in strike outs, 25th in the league in BA, and 28th in the league in Hits/game. The Brewers are still on top of the NL Central despite their recent struggles. The Under is 6-7 in Pavano's starts this season. Based on all of this, I think this is a good spot for Pavano to throw a solid 7.0 inning 2 ER game tonight.
Dave Bush started the season strong but has earned a loss in 3 of his last 4 games. In his last 3 outings he has an ERA of 7.20, WHIP of 1.867. The Under is 8-4 in Bush's starts this season. Milwaukee has a pretty good bullpen this season as well.
The Under is the best play tonight, but I am concerned about the weather being perfect for hitters tonight. I would lean towards Cleveland as well based on the fact that I trust Cleveland's offense more than I trust the Brewers'.
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Statfox Trend:
Play Against
Any team (MILWAUKEE)
average NL offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against an average AL starter (ERA=4.30 to 5.70), in the first half of the season
61-35 over the last 5 seasons.
63.5% (29.9 units)
Which is saying that Cleveland has a 63.5% chance of winning tonight based on this system.
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Milwaukee L7:
FOR: 3.9 Runs, .224 average
AGAINST: 4.9 Runs, .279 average
Cleveland L7:
FOR: 4.4 Runs, .238 average
AGAINST: 3.7 Runs, .243 average
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Tonights Plays:
3* Milwaukee @ Cleveland Under 9.5 -125
1* Cleveland -125
Under 9.5 -125
Humidity is going to be up around 55% tonight which helps the home runs come in. And it is going to be sunny and 75 degrees as well.
Pavano is coming off of a bad start against the Royals in which he gave up 9 runs in 4.2 IP. But they only lost 0-9, so their bullpen did not allow any other runs after that. Pavano's start before that one entailed a 3 hit complete game against the struggling White Sox bats. He has just 16 BB in 76.2 IP this season. Pavano has faced some strong hitting AL teams such as BOS, NYY, TB, MN, and DET; who are all very successful offensively this year. But tonight they will face the Brewers, who are 2nd in the league in strike outs, 25th in the league in BA, and 28th in the league in Hits/game. The Brewers are still on top of the NL Central despite their recent struggles. The Under is 6-7 in Pavano's starts this season. Based on all of this, I think this is a good spot for Pavano to throw a solid 7.0 inning 2 ER game tonight.
Dave Bush started the season strong but has earned a loss in 3 of his last 4 games. In his last 3 outings he has an ERA of 7.20, WHIP of 1.867. The Under is 8-4 in Bush's starts this season. Milwaukee has a pretty good bullpen this season as well.
The Under is the best play tonight, but I am concerned about the weather being perfect for hitters tonight. I would lean towards Cleveland as well based on the fact that I trust Cleveland's offense more than I trust the Brewers'.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Statfox Trend:
Play Against
Any team (MILWAUKEE)
average NL offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against an average AL starter (ERA=4.30 to 5.70), in the first half of the season
61-35 over the last 5 seasons.
63.5% (29.9 units)
Which is saying that Cleveland has a 63.5% chance of winning tonight based on this system.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Milwaukee L7:
FOR: 3.9 Runs, .224 average
AGAINST: 4.9 Runs, .279 average
Cleveland L7:
FOR: 4.4 Runs, .238 average
AGAINST: 3.7 Runs, .243 average
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonights Plays:
3* Milwaukee @ Cleveland Under 9.5 -125
1* Cleveland -125
