Firstly, a big misperception when dealing with line movements that is often made on this forum (not suggesting you) by misinformed "pickers" is suggesting line movement helps predict the future rather rather than its true reality (when dealing with efficient and semi-strong efficient markets like MLB) in which helps describe the past.
So, with the line movement on the Yankees/Marlins games suggests is that the -143 was not an efficient price. Market participants may be suggesting that West's (a relative unknown and hard to price variable) current form's divergence with true pitching ability may not be as far off as oddsmakers believe. Yankee backers may also be backing off after looking flat out bad against the worst team in baseball. The maket may also like the notion the Marlins bullpen is well rested after not having to go out yesterday and is getting a key arm back today.
Whatever the reason for the line movement, it should be interpreted as
-143 was not the right pricing, as the market now believes the Yankess have <58% chance of winning. It does not suggest the Marlins are the right play as "sharp" money is backing them, or that the Yankees are the right play, as they are now coming at a cheaper price tag. Does it suggest the Marlins were a play at +133? Possibly, as it depends on where the line settles heading into the close (or before the lineups come out).
So, with the line movement on the Yankees/Marlins games suggests is that the -143 was not an efficient price. Market participants may be suggesting that West's (a relative unknown and hard to price variable) current form's divergence with true pitching ability may not be as far off as oddsmakers believe. Yankee backers may also be backing off after looking flat out bad against the worst team in baseball. The maket may also like the notion the Marlins bullpen is well rested after not having to go out yesterday and is getting a key arm back today.
Whatever the reason for the line movement, it should be interpreted as
-143 was not the right pricing, as the market now believes the Yankess have <58% chance of winning. It does not suggest the Marlins are the right play as "sharp" money is backing them, or that the Yankees are the right play, as they are now coming at a cheaper price tag. Does it suggest the Marlins were a play at +133? Possibly, as it depends on where the line settles heading into the close (or before the lineups come out).
First of all, they didn't hang the -143, they opened it up somewhere inbetween the current price and the -143. Initial line movement actually bid up the Yankees price. But to answer your question, the book maker is not concerened with finding the most efficient price with their opening line (in more direct terms, their primary goal is not to try to have the opening line equal the closing line). Not only would it be nearly impossible to do so it, it would also be too costly to do such as well. They would much rather open the line with a semi-efficient pricing, and let the market place settle the differences. You can look at it as if the opening line is the IPO, where the IPO price is much less efficient than once the secondary market gets a hold of it.
What you should probably take away from this post is that if you are looking for EV bets, you are much better off picking off value on the open and overnights, and not right before first pitch.
