PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
L.A. Clippers
Blake Griffin
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 248 pounds
Age: 20
School: Oklahoma
Analysis: For the past several years, we've been blessed with at least a little suspense when it comes to who will be the No. 1 pick. Not this year. Griffin is going to be a Clipper. Sources around the league say trade talks with the Clippers are virtually nonexistent when it comes to Griffin. Instead, the Clippers are focusing on finding a new home for Chris Kaman or Zach Randolph.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Memphis
Hasheem Thabeet
Position: C
Height: 7-3
Weight: 267
Age: 22
School: Connecticut
Analysis: There is still a lot of talk about Memphis trading this pick. The Wolves, Wizards and Kings have all called. So have Boston and Portland. But if the Grizzlies don't trade it, whom will they take?
The consensus is that the Grizzlies will take Thabeet, whom we've had here since our first mock draft. The Grizzlies need defense and shot blocking, and Thabeet brings those skills.
However, the fact that Thabeet canceled his workout (shoulder injury) with Memphis on Sunday could be a big factor. Chris Wallace has already interviewed him, but owner Michael Heisley hasn't. And the subtle message behind the cancellation can't be what the Grizzlies want to hear -- Thabeet doesn't want to play in Memphis.
As for the rest of the Grizzlies' draft board? Notably absent is Ricky Rubio. Sources say he is off the board after refusing to visit.
So, does a desire to play in Memphis matter to Heisley?
If so, James Harden, Tyreke Evans and Jordan Hill might be more in the mix than we thought.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Oklahoma City
Ricky Rubio
Position: PG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 180
Age: 18
Country: Spain
Analysis: Thunder GM Sam Presti flew to L.A. on Saturday to talk to Rubio. He also got a chance to review Rubio's physical and contract -- two important pieces of the puzzle for whoever drafts him.
Then, on Sunday, he met with James Harden and Hasheem Thabeet in L.A. And just to make things even more confusing, we hear Presti is now hot for Stephen Curry.
Whom will the Thunder draft? I think this one is going down to the wire. I know Presti is a fan of all four players -- Rubio and Thabeet have the upside, and Harden and Curry are the better fits. If Presti can get a couple of assets in return for the No. 3 pick, he won't be afraid to pull the trigger on a trade, either.
If the Thunder keep the pick, my brain says Harden is a perfect fit in Oklahoma City next to Russell Westbrook. The scuttle is that Curry is the hot name in the Thunder's draft war room. And a few think Thabeet's size will win the day. But I have to believe that Rubio, whom we've had here since the night of the lottery, will end up in OKC.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Sacramento
Tyreke Evans
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 220
Age: 19
School: Memphis
Analysis: At this point, I think it's safe to say the Kings have narrowed it down to Flynn, Rubio and Evans.
Sources say the camp is pretty split among the three. Flynn brings vocal leadership, athleticism and an NBA-ready body to the mix. Rubio is physically less ready for the NBA, but he's a purer point guard who understands the game better than anyone in the draft. Evans isn't a true point, but the Kings love his strength, toughness and size -- especially after his second workout.
Evans was in Sacramento on Sunday and had his way with Flynn and Stephen Curry. He was relentless taking the ball to the basket. As one Kings scout remarked, "It was a man beating up boys."
So, has Evans risen to the top of the Kings' list? Maybe.
Sources in Sacramento say the Kings have reservations about Rubio, and his rocky visit there last week didn't help the situation. They feel like Flynn could be a leader and the guy who could come in from day one and contribute, but they are worried about his size.
Evans has been described as sort of a compromise candidate. He gives the team size and some point guard skills. As for Jrue Holiday? He was in the mix for a while, but sources say he's fallen off the top three on their board.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Washington
James Harden
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 222
Age: 19
School: Arizona State
Analysis: As we've been reporting since draft lottery night, the Wizards continue to shop this pick, and Washington sources say they've had a number of interesting offers. The Wizards' goal is to get back a veteran who can play right now ... and to shed a few million dollars off their cap if possible.
A couple of NBA agents who have been talking to the Wizards say they believe it's highly likely the pick will get traded. But to where? Every source has a different answer.
A number of teams -- including the Knicks, Rockets and Pacers -- are possibilities here. So are the Timberwolves, who have tried to pick up another lottery pick.
If the Wizards keep the pick, they'll have a tough choice among Harden, Curry and Hill. Hill's rebounding ability and motor are great, but adding a dead-eye shooter in the backcourt like Curry or an all-around talent like Harden appears to be a bigger need.
Minnesota
Stephen Curry
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 181
Age: 21
School: Davidson
Analysis: The Wolves really need help at center and point guard. There aren't any centers worth taking at this spot, so they've been looking hard at Curry, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan and Brandon Jennings here. If they move up, Ricky Rubio and Hasheem Thabeet move into the picture.
I think Curry can play both positions on the floor and, combined with Randy Foye, could give the Wolves a pretty formidable backcourt. Curry's maturity, dead-eye shooting and name recognition will make him a smart pick for the Wolves if he's still on the board. But if he's not, they will go with Evans. And if Evans is not there, DeRozan and Jennings will get looks.
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Golden State
Jordan Hill
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 232
Age: 21
School: Arizona
Analysis: The Warriors don't have a traditional point guard, and they'll have at least three to choose from here, including Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings and Jrue Holiday.
The problem for the Warriors is that they have a young player, Monta Ellis, who thinks he's a point guard and a coach, Don Nelson, who appears to be committed to giving Ellis a shot at running the point.
That means that even though Flynn, Jennings and Holiday all are on the board here, the Warriors could pass on all three.
I think that puts Hill strongly in play here. He's a mobile big man, which Nellie likes, and he's got a great motor. It wouldn't shock me to see Golden State move Brandan Wright this summer, and if it does, Hill fits right in.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
New York
Brandon Jennings
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 165
Age: 19
Country: Italy
Analysis: The Knicks will be disappointed if Curry is off the board, but the truth is, they have needs everywhere.
With David Lee hitting restricted free agency this summer, Hill would be a perfect fit for New York at the 4. If he's there, I think he'll go ahead of any of the point guards not named Rubio or Curry.
If Hill is gone, as he is in this mock, they'll be drafting for a point guard. The Knicks likely would be deciding between two young, inexperienced guards with terrific upside: Jennings and Holiday.
Neither had a terrific season, but both have huge potential. Early on, Jennings was better than Holiday in the New York workouts -- Jennings held his own in a workout with Evans while Holiday got overshadowed a bit by Curry and Gerald Henderson in his first workout.
The Knicks are bringing Holiday back on Monday. Holiday is all about substance, Jennings about flash. Holiday is low risk, Jennings is higher risk, but higher reward. Right now, Jennings has a super-slim lead, but that could change Monday.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Toronto
DeMar DeRozan
Position: SG
Height: 6-6
Weight: 211
Age: 19
School: USC
Analysis: The Raptors have some needs on the wing since Anthony Parker and Shawn Marion are hitting free agency. DeRozan is one of the most gifted players in the draft, and his strong play at the end of the season combined with a confident performance at the combine could push him even higher than No. 9. But if he's here, sources say the Raptors won't pass.
If DeRozan is gone, they'll decide between Duke's Henderson and Holiday, with Holiday in the lead. In fact, one source close to the Raptors insisted Sunday that it was Holiday, not DeRozan, whom the Raptors would select in this scenario. We'll be watching that one closely.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Milwaukee
Jrue Holiday
Position: PG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 199
Age: 18
School: UCLA
Analysis: The Bucks have a big workout Tuesday as they try to sort things out. Flynn, Ty Lawson, Jennings and Jeff Teague all will be there.
But if the team has its way and Holiday is on the board, I think the Bucks will take him. If Holiday is off the board, this week's workout should determine the rest of their board. But going into the workout, it seems like it's Flynn, Teague, Jennings and Lawson, in that order.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
New Jersey
Jonny Flynn
Position: PG
Height: 6-1
Weight: 196
Age: 20
School: Syracuse
Analysis: We've had Tyler Hansbrough at this spot for the past few weeks, and he's still in consideration here. But if Flynn is on the board, Nets GM Rod Thorn won't hesitate to take him.
While Thorn has said he needs a moose up front, the Nets have needs in the backcourt, too. Devin Harris can play the 1 and the 2, and Vince Carter can play the 2 and the 3, and without a significant backup point guard, Flynn seems like a terrific fit.
Flynn will have a shot at making his case Tuesday when he goes into a mega workout in New Jersey against his top competition at 11. Jennings, Henderson, Terrence Williams, Hansbrough and Jeff Pendergraph will join him in what could be the ultimate fight for the Nets' pick.
The Nets are high on all the players at 11 (with the exception of Pendergraph), and Tuesday's workout could go a long way in deciding whom they pick. That is, if they don't trade this pick to Chicago for No. 16 and No. 26.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Charlotte
Terrence Williams
Position: SG
Height: 6-6
Weight: 213
Age: 21
School: Louisville
Analysis: Last week, I said I thought it was close to a sure thing that Henderson would be the pick here. What a difference a week makes. Williams went in and blew Larry Brown away. Now Williams and Henderson are going to square off in a second workout early this week. That workout will determine who goes at No. 12, but sources are saying Williams has moved ahead for the time being.
Earl Clark and B.J. Mullens aren't out of the question here, either, nor is a Bobcats trade. Not only does Henderson not have this thing locked up, but I think he's in serious danger of slipping.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Indiana
DeJuan Blair
Position: PF
Height: 6-7
Weight: 277
Age: 20
School: Pittsburgh
Analysis: The Pacers have been on the hunt for a point guard and will snatch up either Holiday or Flynn if he falls this far. If neither does, the Pacers will have a tough decision between going big or taking one of the point guards in the next tier.
If they go big, both Blair and Hansbrough are in the mix. The Pacers, like a lot of teams, have had concerns about Blair's knees, but Blair's circle has been pretty proactive the past few days with an avalanche of documents, MRIs and medical opinions that all state Blair's knees should hold up fine.
If they go point guard, I think it will be a dogfight between Teague, Eric Maynor, Lawson and Jennings. All four have been impressive at workouts for the Pacers. Maynor and Lawson are the most ready. Teague and Jennings have the upside.
For now, it appears Blair has moved back into the mix in Indiana. He fills a big need at the 4, and if he's going to be healthy, he deserves to go this high.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Phoenix
Gerald Henderson
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 215
Age: 21
School: Duke
Analysis: The Suns could go in a lot of directions, depending on where GM Steve Kerr decides to take the team.
There's been a lot of talk about Earl Clark, James Johnson and Mullens here. Clark and Johnson joined Jennings in a workout in Phoenix this weekend with word that Clark and Johnson were basically a tie.
But I think the Suns will have a hard time passing on Henderson if he's there. He's rated higher on their board than anyone else who's available. Henderson isn't a perfect fit, but he gives them some depth at the 2 and some insurance if they try to ship Jason Richardson this summer.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Detroit
Earl Clark
Position: SF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 226
Age: 21
School: Louisville
Analysis: The Pistons will begin their summer makeover in the draft.
They'd love to add a dominant low-post scorer, but in lieu of that, they'll have to settle for choosing between two upside guys: Clark and Austin Daye.
Clark could be the second coming of Lamar Odom if he's willing to put in the work. The versatile forward can play the 3 and the 4 and is amazing in transition, an excellent rebounder and an emerging shooter. And he has the capability (albeit not always the inclination) to play great defense. But there are a few questions about his background that might hurt him.
Daye is one of the most skilled players in the draft. He's like a 6-foot-11 version of Tayshaun Prince. He's super skinny, but he can really shoot the rock. He is also inconsistent but has major upside.
I think Clark gets the edge based on physicality and versatility. He's big enough to be a full-time 4 in the NBA, but it's a close call.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Chicago
James Johnson
Position: PF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 258
Age: 22
School: Wake Forest
Analysis: The Bulls have been working the phones this week trying to move up in the draft.
They've talked to the Nets, Bobcats and Pacers about swapping the 16th and 26th picks to move up a few spots.
Who are they after? I've heard everything from Johnson to Blair to Hansbrough to Williams to Mullens here. To be honest, I can't get a terrific handle on which way they are leaning. In this scenario, Williams and Blair are gone, which leaves Johnson, Mullens and Hansbrough.
Hansbrough is the most NBA ready. Mullens has the most upside. Johnson is somewhere in between. I'm not sure exactly how Johnson fits in Chicago with Luol Deng on one side and Tyrus Thomas on the other, but there's no question about his upside.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Philadelphia
Ty Lawson
Position: PG
Height: 6-1
Weight: 199
Age: 21
School: North Carolina
Analysis: With Andre Miller hitting free agency this summer, look for the Sixers to address the point guard position. Lou Williams is nice but not really a lead guard.
Maynor, Lawson and Teague all are in the mix here ... as are Williams, Henderson and Sam Young.
Maynor would give Philly the total package as one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft. Lawson had the best season of any of the point guards and can really play in an up-tempo style. Teague also will get a look here, but he's more of a combo guard, and the Sixers have that in Williams.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Minnesota (from Miami)
B.J. Mullens
Position: C
Height: 7-1
Weight: 258
Age: 20
School: Ohio State
Analysis: I'm not sure whether the Wolves will keep this pick, and there are a number of teams that seem to be hot for Mullens that would be willing to trade for it. If the Wolves keep it, Mullens could fill a big hole in the paint in the long term.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Atlanta
Jeff Teague
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 175
Age: 20
School: Wake Forest
Analysis: The Hawks have blown it repeatedly when they've needed a point guard in the draft. They passed on Chris Paul to draft Marvin Williams and passed on Rajon Rondo to draft Shelden Williams.
Then, two years ago, when they finally got around to picking a point guard, they took Acie Law ahead of Rodney Stuckey.
The choice here likely will come down to Teague and Maynor. Maynor has the experience and leadership credentials, but Teague has the sizzle and upside.
Omri Casspi, Hansbrough and Sam Young also are in the mix here.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Utah
Tyler Hansbrough
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 234
Age: 23
School: North Carolina
Analysis: The Jazz and Hansbrough seem like a match made in heaven. If Hansbrough falls this far (he's getting a look at 11, 13, 16 and 19), I don't see them passing on him. With Carlos Boozer heading out the door, they need more toughness in the paint. But if he's off the board, they likely will be deciding among Austin Daye, Young and Toney Douglas.
Young is the type of tough veteran the Jazz love. He is ready to step in and play right now, and would give them minutes at both the 2 and the 3.
Douglas is the type of combo guard the Jazz currently lack. He shoots, plays defense and could be a credible backup at both positions for Utah.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
New Orleans
Sam Young
Position: SF
Height: 6-7
Weight: 223
Age: 24
School: Pittsburgh
Analysis: Young is one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft.
He has size and strength and was super productive at Pitt the past two years. Most importantly for New Orleans, he can come in and contribute right away.
Daye, Darren Collison, Chase Budinger, Taj Gibson and Derrick Brown also are in the mix.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Dallas
Eric Maynor
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 164
Age: 21
School: VCU
Analysis: The Mavs can kind of sit back and see who falls. Point guard is a need, and they'll have three interesting prospects with Maynor, Collison and Nick Calathes all on the board.
Of the three, it's hard to see them passing on Maynor. He is a four-year player who could come in and play immediately. He is a terrific floor leader and can do a little of everything. There isn't one area in particular in which he stands out, but he can be special in lots of things.
Collison brings great speed to the table. Calathes will play in Greece this season, but he could be a nice pick down the road.
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Sacramento
(via Houston)
Austin Daye
Position: SF
Height: 6-11
Weight: 192
Age: 20
School: Gonzaga
Analysis: Daye could be in a little trouble if he slides past Detroit at No. 15.
A few other teams have interest, but there are no locks at this point. I think the Kings would seriously consider him here.
They could use help at both forward spots, and Daye has terrific upside. I think Calathes also is a real possibility here.
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Portland
DaJuan Summers
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 243
Age: 21
School: Georgetown
Analysis: The Blazers are looking at trading this pick. But if they keep it, they can add another forward who can play both the 3 and the 4. Summers already has an NBA body and the kind of shooting ability the team really covets.
Given how many players they already have on their roster, an international player like Casspi or Jonas Jerebko also is a possibility.
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Oklahoma City
(via San Antonio)
Chase Budinger
Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 206
Age: 21
School: Arizona
Analysis: The Thunder would love to get their hands on a legitimate center, but there won't be anyone worth gambling on at this point in the draft. If the team doesn't address its needs at the 2 earlier in the draft, Budinger could be an option. With his shooting ability, he would be a nice complement in the backcourt to Russell Westbrook.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Chicago
(via Denver)
Toney Douglas
Position: SG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 184
Age: 23
School: Florida State
Analysis: Douglas would be an insurance policy should Ben Gordon bolt this summer. He's not as talented a shooter, but he's good enough to play both backcourt positions in Chicago, and his defense would earn him minutes right from the get-go.
If the Bulls trade this pick ... who knows? Although a lot of teams trying to buy into the late first round love Casspi.
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Memphis
(via Orlando)
Omri Casspi
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 211
Age: 20
Country: Spain
Analysis: The Grizzlies lack toughness, and Casspi has an abundance of it. He's not the most skilled player in the draft, but few players possess his grit. As an added bonus for the Grizzlies, they don't have to pay him to come over yet. There are a number of teams targeting this pick right now via trade ... so Memphis might not have it on draft night.
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Minnesota
(via Boston)
Jonas Jerebko
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 220
Age: 22
Country: Sweden
Analysis: It seems doubtful the Wolves would keep three rookies on their roster this season, which gives them an interesting choice of international players. Casspi would be an obvious choice. He is tough and physical and can keep developing overseas. Victor Claver is the other. But word is Jerebko from Sweden is the top choice at the moment.
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L.A. Lakers
Darren Collison
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 166
Age: 21
School: UCLA
Analysis: Collison is a small guard, something Phil Jackson isn't a big fan of. But he is super fast, has a smooth jumper and can get after it defensively. With Derek Fisher winding down his career, he's worth a gamble here.
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Cleveland
Derrick Brown
Position: PF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 225
Age: 21
School: Xavier
Analysis: The Cavs could lose both Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao this summer. And after getting bested by the Magic, their need for some athletic 4s who can guard players on the perimeter is paramount.
L.A. Clippers
Blake Griffin
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 248 pounds
Age: 20
School: Oklahoma
Analysis: For the past several years, we've been blessed with at least a little suspense when it comes to who will be the No. 1 pick. Not this year. Griffin is going to be a Clipper. Sources around the league say trade talks with the Clippers are virtually nonexistent when it comes to Griffin. Instead, the Clippers are focusing on finding a new home for Chris Kaman or Zach Randolph.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Memphis
Hasheem Thabeet
Position: C
Height: 7-3
Weight: 267
Age: 22
School: Connecticut
Analysis: There is still a lot of talk about Memphis trading this pick. The Wolves, Wizards and Kings have all called. So have Boston and Portland. But if the Grizzlies don't trade it, whom will they take?
The consensus is that the Grizzlies will take Thabeet, whom we've had here since our first mock draft. The Grizzlies need defense and shot blocking, and Thabeet brings those skills.
However, the fact that Thabeet canceled his workout (shoulder injury) with Memphis on Sunday could be a big factor. Chris Wallace has already interviewed him, but owner Michael Heisley hasn't. And the subtle message behind the cancellation can't be what the Grizzlies want to hear -- Thabeet doesn't want to play in Memphis.
As for the rest of the Grizzlies' draft board? Notably absent is Ricky Rubio. Sources say he is off the board after refusing to visit.
So, does a desire to play in Memphis matter to Heisley?
If so, James Harden, Tyreke Evans and Jordan Hill might be more in the mix than we thought.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Oklahoma City
Ricky Rubio
Position: PG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 180
Age: 18
Country: Spain
Analysis: Thunder GM Sam Presti flew to L.A. on Saturday to talk to Rubio. He also got a chance to review Rubio's physical and contract -- two important pieces of the puzzle for whoever drafts him.
Then, on Sunday, he met with James Harden and Hasheem Thabeet in L.A. And just to make things even more confusing, we hear Presti is now hot for Stephen Curry.
Whom will the Thunder draft? I think this one is going down to the wire. I know Presti is a fan of all four players -- Rubio and Thabeet have the upside, and Harden and Curry are the better fits. If Presti can get a couple of assets in return for the No. 3 pick, he won't be afraid to pull the trigger on a trade, either.
If the Thunder keep the pick, my brain says Harden is a perfect fit in Oklahoma City next to Russell Westbrook. The scuttle is that Curry is the hot name in the Thunder's draft war room. And a few think Thabeet's size will win the day. But I have to believe that Rubio, whom we've had here since the night of the lottery, will end up in OKC.
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Sacramento
Tyreke Evans
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 220
Age: 19
School: Memphis
Analysis: At this point, I think it's safe to say the Kings have narrowed it down to Flynn, Rubio and Evans.
Sources say the camp is pretty split among the three. Flynn brings vocal leadership, athleticism and an NBA-ready body to the mix. Rubio is physically less ready for the NBA, but he's a purer point guard who understands the game better than anyone in the draft. Evans isn't a true point, but the Kings love his strength, toughness and size -- especially after his second workout.
Evans was in Sacramento on Sunday and had his way with Flynn and Stephen Curry. He was relentless taking the ball to the basket. As one Kings scout remarked, "It was a man beating up boys."
So, has Evans risen to the top of the Kings' list? Maybe.
Sources in Sacramento say the Kings have reservations about Rubio, and his rocky visit there last week didn't help the situation. They feel like Flynn could be a leader and the guy who could come in from day one and contribute, but they are worried about his size.
Evans has been described as sort of a compromise candidate. He gives the team size and some point guard skills. As for Jrue Holiday? He was in the mix for a while, but sources say he's fallen off the top three on their board.
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Washington
James Harden
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 222
Age: 19
School: Arizona State
Analysis: As we've been reporting since draft lottery night, the Wizards continue to shop this pick, and Washington sources say they've had a number of interesting offers. The Wizards' goal is to get back a veteran who can play right now ... and to shed a few million dollars off their cap if possible.
A couple of NBA agents who have been talking to the Wizards say they believe it's highly likely the pick will get traded. But to where? Every source has a different answer.
A number of teams -- including the Knicks, Rockets and Pacers -- are possibilities here. So are the Timberwolves, who have tried to pick up another lottery pick.
If the Wizards keep the pick, they'll have a tough choice among Harden, Curry and Hill. Hill's rebounding ability and motor are great, but adding a dead-eye shooter in the backcourt like Curry or an all-around talent like Harden appears to be a bigger need.
Minnesota
Stephen Curry
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 181
Age: 21
School: Davidson
Analysis: The Wolves really need help at center and point guard. There aren't any centers worth taking at this spot, so they've been looking hard at Curry, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan and Brandon Jennings here. If they move up, Ricky Rubio and Hasheem Thabeet move into the picture.
I think Curry can play both positions on the floor and, combined with Randy Foye, could give the Wolves a pretty formidable backcourt. Curry's maturity, dead-eye shooting and name recognition will make him a smart pick for the Wolves if he's still on the board. But if he's not, they will go with Evans. And if Evans is not there, DeRozan and Jennings will get looks.
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Golden State
Jordan Hill
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 232
Age: 21
School: Arizona
Analysis: The Warriors don't have a traditional point guard, and they'll have at least three to choose from here, including Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings and Jrue Holiday.
The problem for the Warriors is that they have a young player, Monta Ellis, who thinks he's a point guard and a coach, Don Nelson, who appears to be committed to giving Ellis a shot at running the point.
That means that even though Flynn, Jennings and Holiday all are on the board here, the Warriors could pass on all three.
I think that puts Hill strongly in play here. He's a mobile big man, which Nellie likes, and he's got a great motor. It wouldn't shock me to see Golden State move Brandan Wright this summer, and if it does, Hill fits right in.
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New York
Brandon Jennings
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 165
Age: 19
Country: Italy
Analysis: The Knicks will be disappointed if Curry is off the board, but the truth is, they have needs everywhere.
With David Lee hitting restricted free agency this summer, Hill would be a perfect fit for New York at the 4. If he's there, I think he'll go ahead of any of the point guards not named Rubio or Curry.
If Hill is gone, as he is in this mock, they'll be drafting for a point guard. The Knicks likely would be deciding between two young, inexperienced guards with terrific upside: Jennings and Holiday.
Neither had a terrific season, but both have huge potential. Early on, Jennings was better than Holiday in the New York workouts -- Jennings held his own in a workout with Evans while Holiday got overshadowed a bit by Curry and Gerald Henderson in his first workout.
The Knicks are bringing Holiday back on Monday. Holiday is all about substance, Jennings about flash. Holiday is low risk, Jennings is higher risk, but higher reward. Right now, Jennings has a super-slim lead, but that could change Monday.
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Toronto
DeMar DeRozan
Position: SG
Height: 6-6
Weight: 211
Age: 19
School: USC
Analysis: The Raptors have some needs on the wing since Anthony Parker and Shawn Marion are hitting free agency. DeRozan is one of the most gifted players in the draft, and his strong play at the end of the season combined with a confident performance at the combine could push him even higher than No. 9. But if he's here, sources say the Raptors won't pass.
If DeRozan is gone, they'll decide between Duke's Henderson and Holiday, with Holiday in the lead. In fact, one source close to the Raptors insisted Sunday that it was Holiday, not DeRozan, whom the Raptors would select in this scenario. We'll be watching that one closely.
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Milwaukee
Jrue Holiday
Position: PG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 199
Age: 18
School: UCLA
Analysis: The Bucks have a big workout Tuesday as they try to sort things out. Flynn, Ty Lawson, Jennings and Jeff Teague all will be there.
But if the team has its way and Holiday is on the board, I think the Bucks will take him. If Holiday is off the board, this week's workout should determine the rest of their board. But going into the workout, it seems like it's Flynn, Teague, Jennings and Lawson, in that order.
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New Jersey
Jonny Flynn
Position: PG
Height: 6-1
Weight: 196
Age: 20
School: Syracuse
Analysis: We've had Tyler Hansbrough at this spot for the past few weeks, and he's still in consideration here. But if Flynn is on the board, Nets GM Rod Thorn won't hesitate to take him.
While Thorn has said he needs a moose up front, the Nets have needs in the backcourt, too. Devin Harris can play the 1 and the 2, and Vince Carter can play the 2 and the 3, and without a significant backup point guard, Flynn seems like a terrific fit.
Flynn will have a shot at making his case Tuesday when he goes into a mega workout in New Jersey against his top competition at 11. Jennings, Henderson, Terrence Williams, Hansbrough and Jeff Pendergraph will join him in what could be the ultimate fight for the Nets' pick.
The Nets are high on all the players at 11 (with the exception of Pendergraph), and Tuesday's workout could go a long way in deciding whom they pick. That is, if they don't trade this pick to Chicago for No. 16 and No. 26.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Charlotte
Terrence Williams
Position: SG
Height: 6-6
Weight: 213
Age: 21
School: Louisville
Analysis: Last week, I said I thought it was close to a sure thing that Henderson would be the pick here. What a difference a week makes. Williams went in and blew Larry Brown away. Now Williams and Henderson are going to square off in a second workout early this week. That workout will determine who goes at No. 12, but sources are saying Williams has moved ahead for the time being.
Earl Clark and B.J. Mullens aren't out of the question here, either, nor is a Bobcats trade. Not only does Henderson not have this thing locked up, but I think he's in serious danger of slipping.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Indiana
DeJuan Blair
Position: PF
Height: 6-7
Weight: 277
Age: 20
School: Pittsburgh
Analysis: The Pacers have been on the hunt for a point guard and will snatch up either Holiday or Flynn if he falls this far. If neither does, the Pacers will have a tough decision between going big or taking one of the point guards in the next tier.
If they go big, both Blair and Hansbrough are in the mix. The Pacers, like a lot of teams, have had concerns about Blair's knees, but Blair's circle has been pretty proactive the past few days with an avalanche of documents, MRIs and medical opinions that all state Blair's knees should hold up fine.
If they go point guard, I think it will be a dogfight between Teague, Eric Maynor, Lawson and Jennings. All four have been impressive at workouts for the Pacers. Maynor and Lawson are the most ready. Teague and Jennings have the upside.
For now, it appears Blair has moved back into the mix in Indiana. He fills a big need at the 4, and if he's going to be healthy, he deserves to go this high.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Phoenix
Gerald Henderson
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 215
Age: 21
School: Duke
Analysis: The Suns could go in a lot of directions, depending on where GM Steve Kerr decides to take the team.
There's been a lot of talk about Earl Clark, James Johnson and Mullens here. Clark and Johnson joined Jennings in a workout in Phoenix this weekend with word that Clark and Johnson were basically a tie.
But I think the Suns will have a hard time passing on Henderson if he's there. He's rated higher on their board than anyone else who's available. Henderson isn't a perfect fit, but he gives them some depth at the 2 and some insurance if they try to ship Jason Richardson this summer.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Detroit
Earl Clark
Position: SF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 226
Age: 21
School: Louisville
Analysis: The Pistons will begin their summer makeover in the draft.
They'd love to add a dominant low-post scorer, but in lieu of that, they'll have to settle for choosing between two upside guys: Clark and Austin Daye.
Clark could be the second coming of Lamar Odom if he's willing to put in the work. The versatile forward can play the 3 and the 4 and is amazing in transition, an excellent rebounder and an emerging shooter. And he has the capability (albeit not always the inclination) to play great defense. But there are a few questions about his background that might hurt him.
Daye is one of the most skilled players in the draft. He's like a 6-foot-11 version of Tayshaun Prince. He's super skinny, but he can really shoot the rock. He is also inconsistent but has major upside.
I think Clark gets the edge based on physicality and versatility. He's big enough to be a full-time 4 in the NBA, but it's a close call.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Chicago
James Johnson
Position: PF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 258
Age: 22
School: Wake Forest
Analysis: The Bulls have been working the phones this week trying to move up in the draft.
They've talked to the Nets, Bobcats and Pacers about swapping the 16th and 26th picks to move up a few spots.
Who are they after? I've heard everything from Johnson to Blair to Hansbrough to Williams to Mullens here. To be honest, I can't get a terrific handle on which way they are leaning. In this scenario, Williams and Blair are gone, which leaves Johnson, Mullens and Hansbrough.
Hansbrough is the most NBA ready. Mullens has the most upside. Johnson is somewhere in between. I'm not sure exactly how Johnson fits in Chicago with Luol Deng on one side and Tyrus Thomas on the other, but there's no question about his upside.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Philadelphia
Ty Lawson
Position: PG
Height: 6-1
Weight: 199
Age: 21
School: North Carolina
Analysis: With Andre Miller hitting free agency this summer, look for the Sixers to address the point guard position. Lou Williams is nice but not really a lead guard.
Maynor, Lawson and Teague all are in the mix here ... as are Williams, Henderson and Sam Young.
Maynor would give Philly the total package as one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft. Lawson had the best season of any of the point guards and can really play in an up-tempo style. Teague also will get a look here, but he's more of a combo guard, and the Sixers have that in Williams.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Minnesota (from Miami)
B.J. Mullens
Position: C
Height: 7-1
Weight: 258
Age: 20
School: Ohio State
Analysis: I'm not sure whether the Wolves will keep this pick, and there are a number of teams that seem to be hot for Mullens that would be willing to trade for it. If the Wolves keep it, Mullens could fill a big hole in the paint in the long term.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Atlanta
Jeff Teague
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 175
Age: 20
School: Wake Forest
Analysis: The Hawks have blown it repeatedly when they've needed a point guard in the draft. They passed on Chris Paul to draft Marvin Williams and passed on Rajon Rondo to draft Shelden Williams.
Then, two years ago, when they finally got around to picking a point guard, they took Acie Law ahead of Rodney Stuckey.
The choice here likely will come down to Teague and Maynor. Maynor has the experience and leadership credentials, but Teague has the sizzle and upside.
Omri Casspi, Hansbrough and Sam Young also are in the mix here.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Utah
Tyler Hansbrough
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 234
Age: 23
School: North Carolina
Analysis: The Jazz and Hansbrough seem like a match made in heaven. If Hansbrough falls this far (he's getting a look at 11, 13, 16 and 19), I don't see them passing on him. With Carlos Boozer heading out the door, they need more toughness in the paint. But if he's off the board, they likely will be deciding among Austin Daye, Young and Toney Douglas.
Young is the type of tough veteran the Jazz love. He is ready to step in and play right now, and would give them minutes at both the 2 and the 3.
Douglas is the type of combo guard the Jazz currently lack. He shoots, plays defense and could be a credible backup at both positions for Utah.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
New Orleans
Sam Young
Position: SF
Height: 6-7
Weight: 223
Age: 24
School: Pittsburgh
Analysis: Young is one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft.
He has size and strength and was super productive at Pitt the past two years. Most importantly for New Orleans, he can come in and contribute right away.
Daye, Darren Collison, Chase Budinger, Taj Gibson and Derrick Brown also are in the mix.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Dallas
Eric Maynor
Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 164
Age: 21
School: VCU
Analysis: The Mavs can kind of sit back and see who falls. Point guard is a need, and they'll have three interesting prospects with Maynor, Collison and Nick Calathes all on the board.
Of the three, it's hard to see them passing on Maynor. He is a four-year player who could come in and play immediately. He is a terrific floor leader and can do a little of everything. There isn't one area in particular in which he stands out, but he can be special in lots of things.
Collison brings great speed to the table. Calathes will play in Greece this season, but he could be a nice pick down the road.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Sacramento
(via Houston)
Austin Daye
Position: SF
Height: 6-11
Weight: 192
Age: 20
School: Gonzaga
Analysis: Daye could be in a little trouble if he slides past Detroit at No. 15.
A few other teams have interest, but there are no locks at this point. I think the Kings would seriously consider him here.
They could use help at both forward spots, and Daye has terrific upside. I think Calathes also is a real possibility here.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Portland
DaJuan Summers
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 243
Age: 21
School: Georgetown
Analysis: The Blazers are looking at trading this pick. But if they keep it, they can add another forward who can play both the 3 and the 4. Summers already has an NBA body and the kind of shooting ability the team really covets.
Given how many players they already have on their roster, an international player like Casspi or Jonas Jerebko also is a possibility.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Oklahoma City
(via San Antonio)
Chase Budinger
Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 206
Age: 21
School: Arizona
Analysis: The Thunder would love to get their hands on a legitimate center, but there won't be anyone worth gambling on at this point in the draft. If the team doesn't address its needs at the 2 earlier in the draft, Budinger could be an option. With his shooting ability, he would be a nice complement in the backcourt to Russell Westbrook.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Chicago
(via Denver)
Toney Douglas
Position: SG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 184
Age: 23
School: Florida State
Analysis: Douglas would be an insurance policy should Ben Gordon bolt this summer. He's not as talented a shooter, but he's good enough to play both backcourt positions in Chicago, and his defense would earn him minutes right from the get-go.
If the Bulls trade this pick ... who knows? Although a lot of teams trying to buy into the late first round love Casspi.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Memphis
(via Orlando)
Omri Casspi
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 211
Age: 20
Country: Spain
Analysis: The Grizzlies lack toughness, and Casspi has an abundance of it. He's not the most skilled player in the draft, but few players possess his grit. As an added bonus for the Grizzlies, they don't have to pay him to come over yet. There are a number of teams targeting this pick right now via trade ... so Memphis might not have it on draft night.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Minnesota
(via Boston)
Jonas Jerebko
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 220
Age: 22
Country: Sweden
Analysis: It seems doubtful the Wolves would keep three rookies on their roster this season, which gives them an interesting choice of international players. Casspi would be an obvious choice. He is tough and physical and can keep developing overseas. Victor Claver is the other. But word is Jerebko from Sweden is the top choice at the moment.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
L.A. Lakers
Darren Collison
Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 166
Age: 21
School: UCLA
Analysis: Collison is a small guard, something Phil Jackson isn't a big fan of. But he is super fast, has a smooth jumper and can get after it defensively. With Derek Fisher winding down his career, he's worth a gamble here.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Cleveland
Derrick Brown
Position: PF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 225
Age: 21
School: Xavier
Analysis: The Cavs could lose both Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao this summer. And after getting bested by the Magic, their need for some athletic 4s who can guard players on the perimeter is paramount.
interesting insider article from the other day..
The truth about analytical methods is that once in a while you'll get a result that flies in the face of conventional wisdom. When that happens, it means one of two things: 1. The analytics saw something that everybody else couldn't see. Or 2. Everybody else saw something that the analytics couldn't see.
And in the case of two particular players in this year's NBA draft, it will be very interesting to find out the answer.
The draft is Thursday, June 25, and now that we know who's in and who's out, it's time to unveil this year's Draft Rater -- a statistical projection of the top NBA prospects coming out of the college ranks.
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To review for the uninitiated, the Draft Rater looks at a player's college production in a variety of metrics and a few other salient facts (such as his height, birth date and years of college experience), and from that projects what a player's player efficiency rating will be when he reaches his peak.
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Draft Rater History
<!-- END INLINE MODULE -->The basic idea is to use the NBA's past to predict its future. The Draft Rater looks back at prospects from past drafts and then, using regression analysis, identifies which attributes determined pro success and which didn't. My database of college players goes back to 2002, which is still a bit limited, but the rater gets smarter each year because it has more information with which to work -- not only an extra year of drafts but also an extra year of pro seasons from every prospect.
This year, several subtle changes helped reduce the error rate when back-tested on previous drafts. First, I ran a separate regression for each of the three position categories -- point guards, wings and bigs -- something that wasn't really feasible when I started doing this. But now that the pool of prospects is large enough, this method has produced greater accuracy.
Second, instead of tying the projection to a player's third-year PER, I used a more general descriptor of what his peak value was, allowing me to minimize the impact of fluke seasons and better adjust for some players who entered the league young and didn't max out until their fourth or fifth season. (Some of these players will perform much better than projected, but keep in mind that it's all relative. For more on why the projections seem low, see this explanation.)
Using those changes, I was able to reduce the standard error in the projections from last year's 4.0 to this year's 2.8. This means nothing to 98 percent of you, but the number geeks in the crowd will recognize that this is still quite large -- as you might expect when you're trying to project what a 19-year-old will do when he's 25. Nonetheless, it represents a significant improvement from last year.
The one area where the method still appears to struggle is with one-and-done freshmen, and this speaks to a more general problem: Information is the key to making this thing work, and the more information we have, the better. For players who leave after their first year, the picture is often incomplete, whether we're using a statistical model or traditional scouting.
I bring this up because last year, in particular, was a rough one for the projection system. First, it was an unusual rookie class in general because nearly every player taken in the first round was at least somewhat productive; generally, a draft will have 10 to 12 impactful players and the rest will be filler, but this past season blew that standard away.
Moreover, a number of those players played only one college season, and although the rater had an accurate view of a few (such as Kevin Love and Michael Beasley), it missed the boat on some who performed extremely well (including Derrick Rose to an extent, and O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon). Gordon is perhaps easier to understand because he was playing hurt at Indiana and his primary skill (shooting) didn't show through statistically, but that doesn't excuse the others.
One important thing to point out is that the Draft Rater is rating pro potential, which is sometimes different from pro performance, depending on the professionalism and work ethic of the player involved. In other words, the fact that Michael Sweetney and Shawne Williams rated very highly in previous seasons isn't necessarily a damnation of the system. Rather, their off-the-court habits are the type of thing every general manager has to take into account when evaluating players and something that is usually invisible when looking at their college performance.
That said, before last season, the Draft Rater had performed extremely well.
From 2002 to 2007, 15 players were (a) among the first 10 collegians drafted and (b) excluded from the top 12 by the Draft Rater. In other words, these were the college players the Draft Rater thought were drafted too high. Of those 15, not one has played in an All-Star Game. The only two who have started a significant number of games in the long term have been Kirk Hinrich (who was 13th in the Draft Rater in 2003) and Charlie Villanueva.
Who were the other top-10 picks not favored by the Draft Rater? Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Fred Jones, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip, Jarvis Hayes, Rafael Araujo, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick and Patrick O'Bryant.
In other words, when the Draft Rater has suggested avoiding a player, that has turned out to be good advice.
The Draft Rater also has spotted some of the biggest steals in recent years:
• Carlos Boozer was the 26th collegian taken in 2002; Draft Rater had him second.
• Josh Howard was 17th in 2003; Draft Rater had him fifth.
• Danny Granger was the 13th collegian in 2005; Draft Rater had him third.
• Rajon Rondo was the 16th collegian taken in 2006, but Draft Rater had him second.
• Rodney Stuckey was the 14th collegian chosen in 2007; Draft Rater had him fifth.
• And last year, two players the Draft Rater had rated much higher than others did, Mario Chalmers and George Hill, had productive rookie seasons.
So, most of the time, when the Draft Rater puts a player in the top five, there's a good reason.
All of which leads us to 2009 and whom the Draft Rater likes and doesn't like.
This year, the Draft Rater is closer to the general draft consensus than usual, with two glaring exceptions that I referenced above.
Let's get to them:
The pleasant surprise: Ty Lawson
Two players are neck and neck for the top spot in this year's Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.
Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he's short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.
The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn't mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don't think Lawson's statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we've heard questions about Lawson's work ethic and injuries.
But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you're wondering about Ricky Rubio, I'll have more on him next week.)
The unpleasant surprise: DeMar DeRozan
I'd be hard-pressed to name a potential high lottery pick throughout the years about whom the Draft Rater has been less excited. I rated 90 prospects for this draft, and DeRozan ranked 54th among them. Two of his USC teammates -- Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson -- outranked him, as did assorted other nonentities such as Kevin Rogers, Chinemelu Elonu and Ben Woodside. I'll wait here while you Google them.
Why? Because there really isn't anything in DeRozan's statistical profile that makes you think "NBA star." He rarely took or made 3-pointers, and he had a strongly negative pure point rating, which are two powerful indicators for a wing player. His numbers in other areas were unimpressive, too. In particular, he was a bad free throw shooter, which indicates that his outside shot might never be a strong suit.
Some scouts I have talked to have compared DeRozan to Rudy Gay in terms of being an NBA athlete but having a questionable motor. But that comparison falls flat, according to the Draft Rater: Gay was the top-rated player in his draft class, while DeRozan is nowhere close. And although he's supposed to be a great athlete, he didn't show it on the court often enough: His rebound, block and steal totals were all very ordinary.
As I mentioned above, one-and-done players sometimes fool the system -- they're the youngest, least experienced guys in the pool, and thus, a major factor is how much they improve post-draft rather than just how good they are pre-draft.
Nonetheless, I would back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.
Speaking of which, let's take a look at the collegians for 2009.
Rankings: The top 12
Top 12 rated collegians for 2009
<table> <thead> <tr><th>Player</th> <th>School</th> <th>Draft Rater</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>1. Ty Lawson</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>16.34</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>2. Blake Griffin</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>16.21</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>3. Tyreke Evans</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>15.02</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>4. Austin Daye</td> <td>Gonzaga</td> <td>14.24</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>5. Stephen Curry</td> <td>Davidson</td> <td>14.18</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>6. Nick Calathes</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>13.66</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>7. DeJuan Blair</td> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>13.56</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>8. Danny Green</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>13.28</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>9. Jonny Flynn</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>12.99</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>10. James Harden</td> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>12.97</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>11. Hasheem Thabeet</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>12.90</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>12. Earl Clark</td> <td>Louisville</td> <td>12.88</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
For starters, let's talk about two of the players who play multiple positions -- this matters now that we're rating players in part based on position.
Stephen Curry graded out at 14.18 as a wing but only 12.86 as a point guard. Either way, it puts him in the top dozen players, but by this rating, he's a much better prospect if he's able to defend against wings.
The difference for Earl Clark was less dramatic, but he rated slightly better as a wing than as a big man (12.14), which would have dropped him from 12th to 15th.
A couple of other names on here are likely to raise eyebrows:
Austin Daye might not have had a great season, but the Draft Rater looks favorably upon a 6-foot-11 small forward who can shoot (assuming he can play the 3 in the NBA). His numbers were strongest in the categories that project best to the pros, including 42.9 percent shooting percentage on 3s and 2.1 blocks per game, which is why he moves all the way up to No. 4 on this list.
Nick Calathes is under contract in Greece but still will be draft-eligible, and he rates higher than the hot point guards most teams are discussing in the top 15. Although he has been knocked for his athleticism, he had high rates of rebounds and steals and a strong 2-point shooting percentage. Teams in luxury tax trouble should look particularly hard at him because he can be stashed in Europe for a year or so.
Danny Green is the other surprise on this list. He's rated highly every year I've rated him, so seeing his name doesn't shock me anymore, but he has received little attention nationally. Still, he's a great shooter who can defend, and he rates as the third-best wing after Daye and Tyreke Evans.
Rankings: 13 to 25
Collegians: No. 13 through 25
<table> <thead> <tr><th>Player</th> <th>School</th> <th>Draft Rater</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>13. Jrue Holiday</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>12.73</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>14. Jeff Teague</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>12.50</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>15. Gerald Henderson</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>12.17</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>16. Paul Delaney</td> <td>UAB</td> <td>11.85</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>17. Aaron Jackson</td> <td>Duquesne</td> <td>11.83</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>18. Darren Collison</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>11.80</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>19. Terrence Williams</td> <td>Louisville</td> <td>11.80</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>20. Leo Lyons</td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>11.53</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>21. Eric Maynor</td> <td>VCU</td> <td>11.35</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>22. John Bryant </td> <td>Santa Clara</td> <td>11.30</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>23. DeMarre Carroll</td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>11.18</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>24. Tyler Hansbrough</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>11.11</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>25. Wayne Ellington</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>11.04</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
This part of the list is an interesting mishmash of potential sleepers and potential busts. In general, players in this range have some kind of NBA career but always can count on getting some quality time with the family during All-Star Weekend.
We're awash in point guards in this draft, and six of the top nine names in this section play the position. The lesson is this: If you're in the market for a point guard, one will fall to you, and they're more or less the same after the first couple.
Down at No. 13, Holiday is a bit of a surprise -- given that he's projected to go higher -- but he has the two characteristics that produce the greatest error rate in the Draft Rater: He's a point guard and has played only one year. In other words, his real value might be much higher or much lower, and because the consensus is much higher, it wouldn't bother me to use a top-eight pick on him.
Delaney and Jackson are second-round sleepers at the point, but because projections for point guards are a bit more volatile, perhaps they shouldn't really be this high. The other "who's he?" on the list, Bryant, is a 6-11, 275-pound center from Santa Clara who could have a fine 10-year career as a third center in the Greg Kite/Aaron Gray mold.
Rankings: Potential disappointments
Collegians: Other notables
<table> <thead> <tr><th>Player</th> <th>School</th> <th>Draft Rater</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>26. Jordan Hill</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>10.97</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>28. B.J. Mullens</td> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>10.81</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>30. James Johnson</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>10.63</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>31. Chase Budinger</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>10.51</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>45. Derrick Brown</td> <td>Xavier</td> <td>9.55</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>48. DaJuan Summers </td> <td>Georgetown</td> <td>9.38</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>51. Jodie Meeks</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>9.35</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>52. Sam Young</td> <td>Pitt</td> <td>9.34</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>54. DeMar DeRozan</td> <td>USC</td> <td>9.26</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>62. Toney Douglas </td> <td>Florida State</td> <td>8.56</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>68. Patrick Mills</td> <td>Saint Mary's</td> <td>8.36</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>83. Jack McClinton</td> <td>Miami</td> <td>6.64</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
And here's where we get to the players the Draft Rater is down on.
Several potential first-round picks don't pass muster here, with short, shoot-first combo guards in particular bearing the brunt of the Draft Rater's wrath -- Jack McClinton, Patrick Mills and Toney Douglas were the three lowest-rated "name" prospects, and Jodie Meeks didn't fare a whole lot better.
The other big surprise down here is Jordan Hill, who could go as high as No. 4 but rates 26th in the Draft Rater. Hill had solid rebounding and scoring numbers, but his percentages weren't off the charts, and his poor assist and turnover numbers were a red flag. Although one might think that ballhandling categories wouldn't matter for a power forward, apparently they do -- pure point rating (a measure of how a player passes and handles the ball) is a pretty strong success indicator for frontcourt players, and only four prospects rated worse than Hill.
One of those players was Mullens, who was the absolute worst at -2.85. Everyone concedes he's a project, so perhaps it's not such a big surprise to see him down this low. But the Draft Rater is saying that maybe even the middle of the first round is too high to take the risk on him.
Pitt's Sam Young also graded out extremely poorly. He had the worst pure point rating of any wing player, and the other thing that hurt him is that he's one of the oldest prospects in the pool. How old? He's 19 days older than six-year vet Darko Milicic and a full half-decade older than Holiday.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
The truth about analytical methods is that once in a while you'll get a result that flies in the face of conventional wisdom. When that happens, it means one of two things: 1. The analytics saw something that everybody else couldn't see. Or 2. Everybody else saw something that the analytics couldn't see.
And in the case of two particular players in this year's NBA draft, it will be very interesting to find out the answer.
The draft is Thursday, June 25, and now that we know who's in and who's out, it's time to unveil this year's Draft Rater -- a statistical projection of the top NBA prospects coming out of the college ranks.
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To review for the uninitiated, the Draft Rater looks at a player's college production in a variety of metrics and a few other salient facts (such as his height, birth date and years of college experience), and from that projects what a player's player efficiency rating will be when he reaches his peak.
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Draft Rater History
<!-- END INLINE MODULE -->The basic idea is to use the NBA's past to predict its future. The Draft Rater looks back at prospects from past drafts and then, using regression analysis, identifies which attributes determined pro success and which didn't. My database of college players goes back to 2002, which is still a bit limited, but the rater gets smarter each year because it has more information with which to work -- not only an extra year of drafts but also an extra year of pro seasons from every prospect.
This year, several subtle changes helped reduce the error rate when back-tested on previous drafts. First, I ran a separate regression for each of the three position categories -- point guards, wings and bigs -- something that wasn't really feasible when I started doing this. But now that the pool of prospects is large enough, this method has produced greater accuracy.
Second, instead of tying the projection to a player's third-year PER, I used a more general descriptor of what his peak value was, allowing me to minimize the impact of fluke seasons and better adjust for some players who entered the league young and didn't max out until their fourth or fifth season. (Some of these players will perform much better than projected, but keep in mind that it's all relative. For more on why the projections seem low, see this explanation.)
Using those changes, I was able to reduce the standard error in the projections from last year's 4.0 to this year's 2.8. This means nothing to 98 percent of you, but the number geeks in the crowd will recognize that this is still quite large -- as you might expect when you're trying to project what a 19-year-old will do when he's 25. Nonetheless, it represents a significant improvement from last year.
The one area where the method still appears to struggle is with one-and-done freshmen, and this speaks to a more general problem: Information is the key to making this thing work, and the more information we have, the better. For players who leave after their first year, the picture is often incomplete, whether we're using a statistical model or traditional scouting.
I bring this up because last year, in particular, was a rough one for the projection system. First, it was an unusual rookie class in general because nearly every player taken in the first round was at least somewhat productive; generally, a draft will have 10 to 12 impactful players and the rest will be filler, but this past season blew that standard away.
Moreover, a number of those players played only one college season, and although the rater had an accurate view of a few (such as Kevin Love and Michael Beasley), it missed the boat on some who performed extremely well (including Derrick Rose to an extent, and O.J. Mayo, Anthony Randolph and Eric Gordon). Gordon is perhaps easier to understand because he was playing hurt at Indiana and his primary skill (shooting) didn't show through statistically, but that doesn't excuse the others.
One important thing to point out is that the Draft Rater is rating pro potential, which is sometimes different from pro performance, depending on the professionalism and work ethic of the player involved. In other words, the fact that Michael Sweetney and Shawne Williams rated very highly in previous seasons isn't necessarily a damnation of the system. Rather, their off-the-court habits are the type of thing every general manager has to take into account when evaluating players and something that is usually invisible when looking at their college performance.
That said, before last season, the Draft Rater had performed extremely well.
From 2002 to 2007, 15 players were (a) among the first 10 collegians drafted and (b) excluded from the top 12 by the Draft Rater. In other words, these were the college players the Draft Rater thought were drafted too high. Of those 15, not one has played in an All-Star Game. The only two who have started a significant number of games in the long term have been Kirk Hinrich (who was 13th in the Draft Rater in 2003) and Charlie Villanueva.
Who were the other top-10 picks not favored by the Draft Rater? Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Fred Jones, Melvin Ely, Marcus Haislip, Jarvis Hayes, Rafael Araujo, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick and Patrick O'Bryant.
In other words, when the Draft Rater has suggested avoiding a player, that has turned out to be good advice.
The Draft Rater also has spotted some of the biggest steals in recent years:
• Carlos Boozer was the 26th collegian taken in 2002; Draft Rater had him second.
• Josh Howard was 17th in 2003; Draft Rater had him fifth.
• Danny Granger was the 13th collegian in 2005; Draft Rater had him third.
• Rajon Rondo was the 16th collegian taken in 2006, but Draft Rater had him second.
• Rodney Stuckey was the 14th collegian chosen in 2007; Draft Rater had him fifth.
• And last year, two players the Draft Rater had rated much higher than others did, Mario Chalmers and George Hill, had productive rookie seasons.
So, most of the time, when the Draft Rater puts a player in the top five, there's a good reason.
All of which leads us to 2009 and whom the Draft Rater likes and doesn't like.
This year, the Draft Rater is closer to the general draft consensus than usual, with two glaring exceptions that I referenced above.
Let's get to them:
The pleasant surprise: Ty Lawson
Two players are neck and neck for the top spot in this year's Draft Rater. You could easily guess that one of them is Blake Griffin, but most folks never would have guessed that the other is Lawson.
Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he's short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.
The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn't mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don't think Lawson's statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we've heard questions about Lawson's work ethic and injuries.
But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you're wondering about Ricky Rubio, I'll have more on him next week.)
The unpleasant surprise: DeMar DeRozan
I'd be hard-pressed to name a potential high lottery pick throughout the years about whom the Draft Rater has been less excited. I rated 90 prospects for this draft, and DeRozan ranked 54th among them. Two of his USC teammates -- Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson -- outranked him, as did assorted other nonentities such as Kevin Rogers, Chinemelu Elonu and Ben Woodside. I'll wait here while you Google them.
Why? Because there really isn't anything in DeRozan's statistical profile that makes you think "NBA star." He rarely took or made 3-pointers, and he had a strongly negative pure point rating, which are two powerful indicators for a wing player. His numbers in other areas were unimpressive, too. In particular, he was a bad free throw shooter, which indicates that his outside shot might never be a strong suit.
Some scouts I have talked to have compared DeRozan to Rudy Gay in terms of being an NBA athlete but having a questionable motor. But that comparison falls flat, according to the Draft Rater: Gay was the top-rated player in his draft class, while DeRozan is nowhere close. And although he's supposed to be a great athlete, he didn't show it on the court often enough: His rebound, block and steal totals were all very ordinary.
As I mentioned above, one-and-done players sometimes fool the system -- they're the youngest, least experienced guys in the pool, and thus, a major factor is how much they improve post-draft rather than just how good they are pre-draft.
Nonetheless, I would back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.
Speaking of which, let's take a look at the collegians for 2009.
Rankings: The top 12
Top 12 rated collegians for 2009
<table> <thead> <tr><th>Player</th> <th>School</th> <th>Draft Rater</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>1. Ty Lawson</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>16.34</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>2. Blake Griffin</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> <td>16.21</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>3. Tyreke Evans</td> <td>Memphis</td> <td>15.02</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>4. Austin Daye</td> <td>Gonzaga</td> <td>14.24</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>5. Stephen Curry</td> <td>Davidson</td> <td>14.18</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>6. Nick Calathes</td> <td>Florida</td> <td>13.66</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>7. DeJuan Blair</td> <td>Pittsburgh</td> <td>13.56</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>8. Danny Green</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>13.28</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>9. Jonny Flynn</td> <td>Syracuse</td> <td>12.99</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>10. James Harden</td> <td>Arizona State</td> <td>12.97</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>11. Hasheem Thabeet</td> <td>Connecticut</td> <td>12.90</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>12. Earl Clark</td> <td>Louisville</td> <td>12.88</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
For starters, let's talk about two of the players who play multiple positions -- this matters now that we're rating players in part based on position.
Stephen Curry graded out at 14.18 as a wing but only 12.86 as a point guard. Either way, it puts him in the top dozen players, but by this rating, he's a much better prospect if he's able to defend against wings.
The difference for Earl Clark was less dramatic, but he rated slightly better as a wing than as a big man (12.14), which would have dropped him from 12th to 15th.
A couple of other names on here are likely to raise eyebrows:
Austin Daye might not have had a great season, but the Draft Rater looks favorably upon a 6-foot-11 small forward who can shoot (assuming he can play the 3 in the NBA). His numbers were strongest in the categories that project best to the pros, including 42.9 percent shooting percentage on 3s and 2.1 blocks per game, which is why he moves all the way up to No. 4 on this list.
Nick Calathes is under contract in Greece but still will be draft-eligible, and he rates higher than the hot point guards most teams are discussing in the top 15. Although he has been knocked for his athleticism, he had high rates of rebounds and steals and a strong 2-point shooting percentage. Teams in luxury tax trouble should look particularly hard at him because he can be stashed in Europe for a year or so.
Danny Green is the other surprise on this list. He's rated highly every year I've rated him, so seeing his name doesn't shock me anymore, but he has received little attention nationally. Still, he's a great shooter who can defend, and he rates as the third-best wing after Daye and Tyreke Evans.
Rankings: 13 to 25
Collegians: No. 13 through 25
<table> <thead> <tr><th>Player</th> <th>School</th> <th>Draft Rater</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>13. Jrue Holiday</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>12.73</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>14. Jeff Teague</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>12.50</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>15. Gerald Henderson</td> <td>Duke</td> <td>12.17</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>16. Paul Delaney</td> <td>UAB</td> <td>11.85</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>17. Aaron Jackson</td> <td>Duquesne</td> <td>11.83</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>18. Darren Collison</td> <td>UCLA</td> <td>11.80</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>19. Terrence Williams</td> <td>Louisville</td> <td>11.80</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>20. Leo Lyons</td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>11.53</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>21. Eric Maynor</td> <td>VCU</td> <td>11.35</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>22. John Bryant </td> <td>Santa Clara</td> <td>11.30</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>23. DeMarre Carroll</td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>11.18</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>24. Tyler Hansbrough</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>11.11</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>25. Wayne Ellington</td> <td>North Carolina</td> <td>11.04</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
This part of the list is an interesting mishmash of potential sleepers and potential busts. In general, players in this range have some kind of NBA career but always can count on getting some quality time with the family during All-Star Weekend.
We're awash in point guards in this draft, and six of the top nine names in this section play the position. The lesson is this: If you're in the market for a point guard, one will fall to you, and they're more or less the same after the first couple.
Down at No. 13, Holiday is a bit of a surprise -- given that he's projected to go higher -- but he has the two characteristics that produce the greatest error rate in the Draft Rater: He's a point guard and has played only one year. In other words, his real value might be much higher or much lower, and because the consensus is much higher, it wouldn't bother me to use a top-eight pick on him.
Delaney and Jackson are second-round sleepers at the point, but because projections for point guards are a bit more volatile, perhaps they shouldn't really be this high. The other "who's he?" on the list, Bryant, is a 6-11, 275-pound center from Santa Clara who could have a fine 10-year career as a third center in the Greg Kite/Aaron Gray mold.
Rankings: Potential disappointments
Collegians: Other notables
<table> <thead> <tr><th>Player</th> <th>School</th> <th>Draft Rater</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="last"> <td>26. Jordan Hill</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>10.97</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>28. B.J. Mullens</td> <td>Ohio State</td> <td>10.81</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>30. James Johnson</td> <td>Wake Forest</td> <td>10.63</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>31. Chase Budinger</td> <td>Arizona</td> <td>10.51</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>45. Derrick Brown</td> <td>Xavier</td> <td>9.55</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>48. DaJuan Summers </td> <td>Georgetown</td> <td>9.38</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>51. Jodie Meeks</td> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>9.35</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>52. Sam Young</td> <td>Pitt</td> <td>9.34</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>54. DeMar DeRozan</td> <td>USC</td> <td>9.26</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>62. Toney Douglas </td> <td>Florida State</td> <td>8.56</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>68. Patrick Mills</td> <td>Saint Mary's</td> <td>8.36</td> </tr> <tr class="last"> <td>83. Jack McClinton</td> <td>Miami</td> <td>6.64</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
And here's where we get to the players the Draft Rater is down on.
Several potential first-round picks don't pass muster here, with short, shoot-first combo guards in particular bearing the brunt of the Draft Rater's wrath -- Jack McClinton, Patrick Mills and Toney Douglas were the three lowest-rated "name" prospects, and Jodie Meeks didn't fare a whole lot better.
The other big surprise down here is Jordan Hill, who could go as high as No. 4 but rates 26th in the Draft Rater. Hill had solid rebounding and scoring numbers, but his percentages weren't off the charts, and his poor assist and turnover numbers were a red flag. Although one might think that ballhandling categories wouldn't matter for a power forward, apparently they do -- pure point rating (a measure of how a player passes and handles the ball) is a pretty strong success indicator for frontcourt players, and only four prospects rated worse than Hill.
One of those players was Mullens, who was the absolute worst at -2.85. Everyone concedes he's a project, so perhaps it's not such a big surprise to see him down this low. But the Draft Rater is saying that maybe even the middle of the first round is too high to take the risk on him.
Pitt's Sam Young also graded out extremely poorly. He had the worst pure point rating of any wing player, and the other thing that hurt him is that he's one of the oldest prospects in the pool. How old? He's 19 days older than six-year vet Darko Milicic and a full half-decade older than Holiday.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
