<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-2.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">31</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">29</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+18.12 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2009)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">86</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">94</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">7</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+14.68 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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Kansas City +1.04 over HOUSTON (1st 5 innings)
There are certain pitchers that you just automatically bet against when they’re favored and Brian Moehler is one of them. Here’s a guy that has allowed 74 hits in 56 innings for a BAA of .322 to go along with an ERA of 6.22. It gets worse. At home, Moehler is 0-3 in five starts after allowing 37 hits in 22.2 innings for a BAA of .385 and an ERA of 9.13. He’s also won two straight games and in this league it’s tough enough to win one game, let alone three in a row for a stiff like this. Also note that the Royals are now 10-2 in its last 12 inter-league road games. Bannister is coming off a tough loss to the Cardinals in which he was very effective, allowing only two earned runs and six hits over eight strong innings. Bannister won his previous start and has allowed a total of two earned runs and 10 hits in his last two starts spanning 16 innings and over his last three starts, covering 21 frames, his ERA is 1.29. Bannister has good numbers and that’s after facing the Cardinals twice, the Indians twice, the Rays, the Twins and a few other AL teams. Moehler has had one good home start and it came against the Padres. This choice is predicated on the starters and thus the five inning bet. Note the 2:05 PM starting time. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +1.04 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Texas –½ +1.22 over ARIZONA (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Jon Garland has virtually no shot when pitching at any hitter’s park. Chase Field was not a good fit for him. Garland needs to pitch at Safeco, Petco or Chavez Ravine otherwise he’s in deep trouble. His 4.99 ERA doesn’t look horrible but pay no attention, as he’s pitched at San Diego, Oakland, Seattle, and Dodger Stadium in four of his last five starts, arguably the four best pitcher’s park in the business. Get this stiff at Chase Field and it’s a whole different story. In 38 home innings, Garland has allowed 53 hits, seven of them bombs, 33 earned runs, he’s struck out 12 lousy batters while walking 17 and has an ERA of 7.82. This isn’t the Padres or Mariners either. Remember, Garland was in the AL for years and thus, he’s no stranger to the Rangers. He’s 5-8 lifetime vs Texas with an ERA of 6.38 and his four wins on the year in 14 starts is a small oasis in a desert of despair. The Rangers should get to him early and often and thus I’ll play this one in five frames. Play: Texas in the first five innings -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Minnesota -½ +1.05 over MILWAUKEE (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Wow, talk about an emergency replacement and Mike Burns is about as desperate as it gets. Burns is a 30-yr-old, career minor-leaguer that has made 46 appearances in the majors, all of them in relief. In his storied career, he’s allowed 73 hits in 56 frames for a BAA of .313. Throw out his first year in ‘05 and his BAA would be .398. Burns has appeared in one game this season and came in to mop up, as the Brewers were down 10-1 to the Marlins when he got the call. So, his four innings pitched with zero runs allowed means jack under those conditions. The Marlins needed nothing more, there was no pressure on him and he mopped up, just like Nick Swisher did in a game earlier in the year and didn’t allow a run either. The Brewers are a strikeout team that’s facing another strikeout pitcher here in Scott Baker. Baker has outstanding control, as his two walks and 19 k’s over his last 21 innings will attest to. For some reason the Brewers play its worst ball against the Twins and when a team is in your head, like the Twins are in the Brewers heads, it’s a big psychological edge as well. Throw a career minor-leaguer into the equation and yeah, I'll take my chances. Rather then laying the 23¢, I’ll lay the ½ run with a small take-back in this 2:05 PM start. Play: Minnesota in the first five innings -½ +1.08 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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NY Yankees –1.06 over ATLANTA
Andy Pettitte has been pure gold on the road this season so sticking with him would seem to be the prudent play. In his last road start against a Marlins team that’s 17-8 against southpaws, Pettitte went seven full and allowed just three hits and one run. In his previous two road starts against the Indians and Blue Jays, he allowed one earned run in both games. In six road starts overall, Pettitte has one loss, a 2.35 ERA and a BAA of .207. Derek Lowe can be effective but the Yanks know him well, very well in fact and almost every hitter for the Yanks has seen this guy for multiple at-bats. Lowe is 8-10 vs the Yanks with a 6.10 ERA. Jeter is hitting .288 off Lowe, Matsui is hitting .545, Damon is hitting .455, Posada is hitting .278, A-Roid (that’s not a typo) is hitting .292, Teixeira is 0-9 against him but knows him well and is swinging a hot bat, as is Robinson Cano. The Braves have a team BA of .257. They have one .300 hitter in the line-up and they have a slew of hitters that can be made to look bad up there and Pettitte is just too crafty and too skilled to allow these second-rate hitters to get to him. The Yanks are usually overpriced but both the Braves and Lowe have solid reputations, thus, we get the Yanks at a small price in a very favorable spot. Play: NY Yankees –1.08 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2). <o></o>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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></o>Kansas City +1.04 over HOUSTON (1st 5 innings)
There are certain pitchers that you just automatically bet against when they’re favored and Brian Moehler is one of them. Here’s a guy that has allowed 74 hits in 56 innings for a BAA of .322 to go along with an ERA of 6.22. It gets worse. At home, Moehler is 0-3 in five starts after allowing 37 hits in 22.2 innings for a BAA of .385 and an ERA of 9.13. He’s also won two straight games and in this league it’s tough enough to win one game, let alone three in a row for a stiff like this. Also note that the Royals are now 10-2 in its last 12 inter-league road games. Bannister is coming off a tough loss to the Cardinals in which he was very effective, allowing only two earned runs and six hits over eight strong innings. Bannister won his previous start and has allowed a total of two earned runs and 10 hits in his last two starts spanning 16 innings and over his last three starts, covering 21 frames, his ERA is 1.29. Bannister has good numbers and that’s after facing the Cardinals twice, the Indians twice, the Rays, the Twins and a few other AL teams. Moehler has had one good home start and it came against the Padres. This choice is predicated on the starters and thus the five inning bet. Note the 2:05 PM starting time. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +1.04 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Texas –½ +1.22 over ARIZONA (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Jon Garland has virtually no shot when pitching at any hitter’s park. Chase Field was not a good fit for him. Garland needs to pitch at Safeco, Petco or Chavez Ravine otherwise he’s in deep trouble. His 4.99 ERA doesn’t look horrible but pay no attention, as he’s pitched at San Diego, Oakland, Seattle, and Dodger Stadium in four of his last five starts, arguably the four best pitcher’s park in the business. Get this stiff at Chase Field and it’s a whole different story. In 38 home innings, Garland has allowed 53 hits, seven of them bombs, 33 earned runs, he’s struck out 12 lousy batters while walking 17 and has an ERA of 7.82. This isn’t the Padres or Mariners either. Remember, Garland was in the AL for years and thus, he’s no stranger to the Rangers. He’s 5-8 lifetime vs Texas with an ERA of 6.38 and his four wins on the year in 14 starts is a small oasis in a desert of despair. The Rangers should get to him early and often and thus I’ll play this one in five frames. Play: Texas in the first five innings -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Minnesota -½ +1.05 over MILWAUKEE (1<SUP>st</SUP> 5 innings)
Wow, talk about an emergency replacement and Mike Burns is about as desperate as it gets. Burns is a 30-yr-old, career minor-leaguer that has made 46 appearances in the majors, all of them in relief. In his storied career, he’s allowed 73 hits in 56 frames for a BAA of .313. Throw out his first year in ‘05 and his BAA would be .398. Burns has appeared in one game this season and came in to mop up, as the Brewers were down 10-1 to the Marlins when he got the call. So, his four innings pitched with zero runs allowed means jack under those conditions. The Marlins needed nothing more, there was no pressure on him and he mopped up, just like Nick Swisher did in a game earlier in the year and didn’t allow a run either. The Brewers are a strikeout team that’s facing another strikeout pitcher here in Scott Baker. Baker has outstanding control, as his two walks and 19 k’s over his last 21 innings will attest to. For some reason the Brewers play its worst ball against the Twins and when a team is in your head, like the Twins are in the Brewers heads, it’s a big psychological edge as well. Throw a career minor-leaguer into the equation and yeah, I'll take my chances. Rather then laying the 23¢, I’ll lay the ½ run with a small take-back in this 2:05 PM start. Play: Minnesota in the first five innings -½ +1.08 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>NY Yankees –1.06 over ATLANTA
Andy Pettitte has been pure gold on the road this season so sticking with him would seem to be the prudent play. In his last road start against a Marlins team that’s 17-8 against southpaws, Pettitte went seven full and allowed just three hits and one run. In his previous two road starts against the Indians and Blue Jays, he allowed one earned run in both games. In six road starts overall, Pettitte has one loss, a 2.35 ERA and a BAA of .207. Derek Lowe can be effective but the Yanks know him well, very well in fact and almost every hitter for the Yanks has seen this guy for multiple at-bats. Lowe is 8-10 vs the Yanks with a 6.10 ERA. Jeter is hitting .288 off Lowe, Matsui is hitting .545, Damon is hitting .455, Posada is hitting .278, A-Roid (that’s not a typo) is hitting .292, Teixeira is 0-9 against him but knows him well and is swinging a hot bat, as is Robinson Cano. The Braves have a team BA of .257. They have one .300 hitter in the line-up and they have a slew of hitters that can be made to look bad up there and Pettitte is just too crafty and too skilled to allow these second-rate hitters to get to him. The Yanks are usually overpriced but both the Braves and Lowe have solid reputations, thus, we get the Yanks at a small price in a very favorable spot. Play: NY Yankees –1.08 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2). <o
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Thanks. Good luck tonight. 
