Wheres the love for Josh Johnson?

KennyB · Jun 26, 2009

Wow, +130 today on Josh Johnson? I have this game capped at a pick. Johnson has been on fire and I expect it to continue.

I am playing 1 unit on the +130 for the game and 1 unit on the 1st 5 innings @ +125 (5dimes).

RebeKid · Jun 26, 2009

i was just thinking the same thing...you r right and let's hope we cash this

jtc1984 · Jun 26, 2009

Interleague game one of series, home favorite's have a high percentage of winning....

C-Gold · Jun 26, 2009

I see JJ, Cain, and 1 other game that look close to a pick but have pretty slanted lines...

I'll probably just stay away but I do like Yovanni Gallero

C-Gold · Jun 26, 2009

Oh yeah the Toronto game... I think Toronto might have decent value.

jtc1984 · Jun 26, 2009

I never go against home fav in game 1 Interleague. Cain and Johnson are cy young caliber this yr. I just stay away but then again who the he'll am I

buffettgambler · Jun 26, 2009

I am not sure how you are deriving a pick in this game, but right off the bat, when you see a disparity in market price and perceptive worth this high, it would be prudent to reassess your quantitative analysis.
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In regards to this game, what variable is bringing down the Marlins intrinsic worth to
-100? Surely you are being prudent in awarding the Rays home field advantage, bullpen advantage, lineup advantage, and current form advatange. Are you saying that the disparity between Johnson’s worth and Shields worth at home overcomes the latter variables?
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In my opinion, oddsmakers left excess value on the table with the Rays open. The market is slowing taking it off the table, and will more than likely continue to do so until reassessed valuations are made on lineup information.

DoggieInvestor · Jun 26, 2009

I never fade johnson, and I never fade Shields at home.

Marlins RL might be best play

buffettgambler · Jun 26, 2009

DoggieInvestor said:
I never fade johnson, and I never fade Shields at home.

Marlins RL might be best play

You don't "fade" pitchers, you "fade" the price assigned to them.

Bennyshoe · Jun 26, 2009

jtc1984 said:
Interleague game one of series, home favorite's have a high percentage of winning....

where did you find this info?

C-Gold · Jun 26, 2009

Buffet...

Do you invest too... I think it would be a better way for you to allocate your time resource to make money. If you invest in stocks you don't have to pay 10% juice and it's a better overall deal.

DoggieInvestor · Jun 26, 2009

buffettgambler said:
You don't "fade" pitchers, you "fade" the price assigned to them.

and both have far outperfomed the prices they have gotten in the situations I stated.

KennyB · Jun 26, 2009

I consider myself a value player. I am looking at how hot Johnson has been and now all of a sudden the Marlins are hot too. The batter/pitcher matchups also favor the Marlins. I have been betting the Marlins for virtually all of Johnson's starts and it is working out well for me including last week when he beat the Yankees.

C-Gold · Jun 26, 2009

You are right, it looks like Value, but Value doesn't always win and I generally like AL teams in interleague play.

lazyeye · Jun 26, 2009

I'll take the +130 tonight on Josh Johnson

O's
Marlins
Boston
Rangers
Brew Crew
Tigers
Angels
Rockies
Dodgers

:cripwalk:

buffettgambler · Jun 26, 2009

C-Gold said:
Buffet...

Do you invest too... I think it would be a better way for you to allocate your time resource to make money. If you invest in stocks you don't have to pay 10% juice and it's a better overall deal.

Yes, I do. And no, it is not neccessarily an overal better deal. The more efficient the market, the less exploitable it is.

buffettgambler · Jun 26, 2009

DoggieInvestor said:
and both have far outperfomed the prices they have gotten in the situations I stated.

How much of a foward looking indicator is a statisic with a sample size of 10? What makes you think the market doesn't adjust itself to any potential short term pricing inefficiencies or pitchers producing postive ROI's?

buffettgambler · Jun 26, 2009

C-Gold said:
You are right, it looks like Value, but Value doesn't always win and I generally like AL teams in interleague play.

Careful, you are treading dangerously close on one of the more common gambler fallacy's.

lazyeye · Jun 27, 2009

damn it florida and detroit screwed the parlay up!

5teamparlay · Jun 23, 2012

Josh takes a No No to the 5th!!!!

Wheres the love for Josh Johnson?

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