Colorado vs Oakland Series Bet

Brotherwo · Jun 26, 2009

Plus money for Colorado against the A's...

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 sizset="167" sizcache="0"><TBODY sizset="167" sizcache="0"><TR class=oddrow sizset="490" sizcache="0"><TD><NOBR>Fri, Jun 26</NOBR></TD><TD align=left sizset="490" sizcache="0">@ Oakland</TD><TD align=right sizset="491" sizcache="0">10:05 PM</TD><TD align=middle> </TD><TD sizset="492" sizcache="0">Hammel (4-3)</TD><TD sizset="493" sizcache="0">Anderson (3-7)</TD><TD colSpan=2 sizset="494" sizcache="0"></TD></TR><TR class=evenrow sizset="495" sizcache="0"><TD><NOBR>Sat, Jun 27</NOBR></TD><TD align=left sizset="495" sizcache="0">@ Oakland</TD><TD align=right>9:05 PM</TD><TD align=middle> </TD><TD sizset="496" sizcache="0">De La Rosa (3-7)</TD><TD sizset="497" sizcache="0">Braden (5-6)</TD><TD colSpan=2 sizset="498" sizcache="0">http://therxforum.com/this.href+'?gcid=C12289x451&gtkw=Oakland+Athletics'"</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow sizset="499" sizcache="0"><TD><NOBR>Sun, Jun 28</NOBR></TD><TD align=left sizset="499" sizcache="0">@ Oakland</TD><TD align=right>4:05 PM</TD><TD align=middle> </TD><TD sizset="500" sizcache="0">Cook (7-3)</TD><TD sizset="501" sizcache="0">Cahill (5-5)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Sure Ill take it... +125

thoughts?

buffettgambler · Jun 26, 2009

Have you assigned a winning probability for the A's in each one of these games? Are you assuming each game is an independent event?

Brotherwo · Jun 26, 2009

buffettgambler said:
Have you assigned a winning probability for the A's in each one of these games? Are you assuming each game is an independent event?

no I havent .

my train of thought is simply, the Rockies are very capable of beating the A's 2 out of 3....if they split the first two I like my chances with Cook for plus money

buffettgambler · Jun 26, 2009

Brotherwo said:
no I havent .

my train of thought is simply, the Rockies are very capable of beating the A's 2 out of 3....if they split the first two I like my chances with Cook for plus money

Firstly, the pitching matches listed in the original post appear to be incorrect. The following order appears to be what the A's are going with
Braden
Cahill
Mazzaro

I am not sure what the your sportsbooks rules with are with incorrect pitching matchups and if your bet would be honored.

Having said that, right off the bat one would assume if the sportsbook is valuing the line with the assumption of Anderson pitching in a game and not Mazzaro, you are getting the short end of the stick, as the market and oddsmakers alike are valuing Mazzaro at a higher worth than Anderson.

Using a binomial distribution and factoring in the lines of the first two games, the series proposition is pricing the Rockies chances of winning game 3 at 50.25%, and a commensurate 10 cent line of -108/102 line on Cook (again assuming the +125 is coincides to the correct pitching matches).

If your expectations are that Cook will trade at less than -108 as a stand alone bet, you are better off waiting until game 3.