Tampa Bay and LA Angels? Thoughts..

Although Halliday at home looks appealing, does Niemann's ability to keep the Rays in the game allow for some value. -150 for Halliday seems cheap, however with Bartlett back the Rays are firing on all cylinders. Toronto's offense continues to hit but when do they slow down and get back to expected target?

LA Angels with O' Sullivan in 1st start at plus 125 with a good team winning 5 in a row. Its an obvious big series to find out if Texas is a contender or pretender. Padilla has pitched extremely well, however will his 4.5 plus era hang there or regress?

Thoughts?

I personally think you just dont know what Halladay is gonna bring to the table. You may get the guy he was before DL and you may get a guy thats not ready. You also may get a short outting by him as well so id personally stay away from this start until his next outting.

The market picked off most of the value the open and overnight provide Rays bettors. Although they can still be construed as undervalued, I sold off some of my overnight position due to the line move. Holliday's was reallly becoming inflated prior to the injury. Not much has changed with his asking price coming off hts injury, but something may have changed with his pitching ability. His pitch count will be monitored more closely today as well.

I have been heavily betting against the Rangers over the past three weeks. The market perceptions has appeared overly bullish, as their lineup producvity coupled with unsustainable pitching performances from their starters and bullpen has masked their true worth. However, O'Sullivan inflated price tag appears to off set the Rangers mispricing, creating what appears to be an efficiently priced line.

Best of luck.

I like the over, Doc always gives up those solo/two-run bombs to the Rays.

Buffett,

I didn't get in early enough with that opening price, however I did play some units at a decent spread. I've been also against a Texas team that had relied on a strong start. They lead league in SO, 4th to last in OBP.

I'm really looking into fading the Marlins..at some point..Weak Defensively..below average pitching..Recipe for fade material..


GEKKO

2 years ago

I agree with holliday about the pitch count. I looked back 2 yrs ago and he came off and injury and threw a gem 7 innings no runs. I dont believe they put him on a count tonight.

Gordon Gekko said:

Buffett,

I didn't get in early enough with that opening price, however I did play some units at a decent spread. I've been also against a Texas team that had relied on a strong start. They lead league in SO, 4th to last in OBP.

I'm really looking into fading the Marlins..at some point..Weak Defensively..below average pitching..Recipe for fade material..


GEKKO

Click to expand...

I have been net nuetral on the Marlins year to date (slightly betting more against them than on them). I think the market and oddsmakers have priced them well all year and their over or under valuation is more dependent on their opponent (although the market appears to be starting to overprice Johnson).

My opinion on betting against teams that are bad defensively is the following.
The market doesn't really efficiently quanitify defensive worth. However, there is a lot of randomness in defensive productivity. Therfore betting against teams that have recently performed poorly on defense (which lead to poor results in the win/loss column) can artificially hinder a teams true predicitive worth and lead to an undervaluation on teams that have recently performed poorly on the field. On the flipside, it is advantageous to try to decipher teams that are bad defensive teams and have either performed to par or above par on the field. The market may miss this variable, creating an overvaluation bias.

Good luck.