Talked to a Local Bookie

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Received a report from a local bookie that is getting murdered in baseball. The unidentified person is basically taking big favorites (playing the run line) and overs (NYY and Red Sox a bunch) and putting them in 3, 4, and 5 team round robins and winning a ton of money. Just going by the lines, and not applying capping skills (so please spare me the lecture), does anyone out there have a formula or method?
 

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baseball is a bettors sport. easily the most beatable of all the sports
 

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This has been floating around for awhile. I copied from a longer post, but this is the gist of it. I back-tracked this from May 6th to June 30th and it didn't come close to the 80% mark. It did however, show a profit of 4.18 units ($100 units) if one bet all the games using -1 RL, but showed a loss of 1.56 units if one played it at -1.5 RL......the difference, of course, is there were 9 games that were won by 1 run and counted as a loss at -1.5 RL and a PUSH at -1. Maybe my sample size was too small, but I couldn't find a reason to continue......

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites better than -120: 80.1%



Analyzing it further, we see that Road Teams in the Money Line Odds range of better than -120 specified in our earlier table beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game. There is a 10% difference in covering the Run Line for the Road Team than for the Home Team.
 

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there is a gentleman who does a "run line" blitz system. Basically takes the most favored team of the day and plays the run line of -1.5. He chases the run lines if that team shall not cover that 1.5. For example, today's play was Milwaukee -1.5 (-210). They lost outright, so tomorrow's play you would put down what you lost on Milwaukee, lets say 1 unit, and then put another 1 unit on the most favored team tomorrow to cover the 1.5 run line. Go as far as 6 games. I think he has lost 1 all year, but when chasing, 1 can kill your bankroll. Take it FWIW.
 

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My cousin that works out at Terribles in Vegas has been betting the over in the Bluejays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays everyday, and parlaying them as well. $100 on each over and $50 on the parlay. He has been murdering it this season.
 

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Baseball is all about capping starting pitchers and bullpens. Those two are the two most important aspects of betting baseball, IMO.

Guys like Rickey Romero, Gavin Floyd, and Edwin Jackson have won me so much money this season.
 
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My cousin that works out at Terribles in Vegas has been betting the over in the Bluejays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays everyday, and parlaying them as well. $100 on each over and $50 on the parlay. He has been murdering it this season.
the BJ's were over city early in the season , especially OTR, but they have cooled off as of late, i know cause i've lost a lot in the past week betting them on team total overs.
 

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My cousin that works out at Terribles in Vegas has been betting the over in the Bluejays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays everyday, and parlaying them as well. $100 on each over and $50 on the parlay. He has been murdering it this season.
That is what I have been hearing. Yankees and Red Sox primarily.
 

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Dont know what you are talking about on over unders ....with NYY 36-37 Bos 34-37 Tor 39-39 Tampa 37-40 total 146 over 153 under ????
 

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Top teams Home Overs

<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><caption>season=2009 and site = home</caption><thead><tr> <th>Record
W-L (marg, % win)</th> <th>
$ On
</th> <th>
$ Against
</th> <th>RL Record
W-L (marg, % win)</th> <th>
$ On
</th> <th>
$ Against
</th> <th>Over/Under
O-U-P (marg, % over)</th> <th>
$ Over
</th> <th>
$ Under
</th> <th name="query_header">team</th> </tr></thead><tbody> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">15-28 (-1.37, 34.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -1890 </td> <td align="center"> 1640 </td> <td align="center">14-29 (-1.83, 32.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -1565 </td> <td align="center"> 1400 </td> <td align="center">27-15-1 (1.17, 64.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 1065 </td> <td align="center"> -1440 </td> <td align="center">Diamondbacks</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">23-20 (-0.60, 53.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 75 </td> <td align="center"> -230 </td> <td align="center">21-21 (-0.95, 50.0%)</td> <td align="center"> 280 </td> <td align="center"> -475 </td> <td align="center">24-15-3 (1.30, 61.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 845 </td> <td align="center"> -1100 </td> <td align="center">Marlins</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">17-15 (0.31, 53.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -185 </td> <td align="center"> 30 </td> <td align="center">13-18 (-0.76, 41.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -130 </td> <td align="center"> -5 </td> <td align="center">18-12-2 (1.27, 60.0%)</td> <td align="center"> 495 </td> <td align="center"> -760 </td> <td align="center">Rockies</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">24-15 (0.67, 61.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 500 </td> <td align="center"> -655 </td> <td align="center">19-20 (-0.29, 48.7%)</td> <td align="center"> 480 </td> <td align="center"> -700 </td> <td align="center">22-17-0 (1.31, 56.4%)</td> <td align="center"> 380 </td> <td align="center"> -760 </td> <td align="center">Twins</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">20-22 (-0.57, 47.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -505 </td> <td align="center"> 320 </td> <td align="center">22-20 (-1.00, 52.4%)</td> <td align="center"> 700 </td> <td align="center"> -905 </td> <td align="center">22-17-3 (0.89, 56.4%)</td> <td align="center"> 355 </td> <td align="center"> -745 </td> <td align="center">Royals</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">23-14 (0.49, 62.2%)</td> <td align="center"> -250 </td> <td align="center"> -15 </td> <td align="center">15-22 (-1.01, 40.5%)</td> <td align="center"> -640 </td> <td align="center"> 505 </td> <td align="center">19-16-2 (0.92, 54.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 145 </td> <td align="center"> -535 </td> <td align="center">Yankees</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">26-13 (1.51, 66.7%)</td> <td align="center"> 645 </td> <td align="center"> -800 </td> <td align="center">20-19 (0.40, 51.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 575 </td> <td align="center"> -795 </td> <td align="center">20-17-2 (1.09, 54.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 120 </td> <td align="center"> -535 </td> <td align="center">Rays</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">24-12 (0.94, 66.7%)</td> <td align="center"> 1080 </td> <td align="center"> -1250 </td> <td align="center">21-15 (0.86, 58.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 1015 </td> <td align="center"> -1195 </td> <td align="center">17-15-3 (0.06, 53.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 180 </td> <td align="center"> -330 </td> <td align="center">Giants</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">20-15 (0.23, 57.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 205 </td> <td align="center"> -395 </td> <td align="center">17-18 (-0.24, 48.6%)</td> <td align="center"> 15 </td> <td align="center"> -115 </td> <td align="center">18-16-1 (1.04, 52.9%)</td> <td align="center"> 25 </td> <td align="center"> -330 </td> <td align="center">Angels</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">18-18 (-0.64, 50.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -65 </td> <td align="center"> -115 </td> <td align="center">22-14 (-0.31, 61.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 820 </td> <td align="center"> -935 </td> <td align="center">18-17-1 (0.28, 51.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -60 </td> <td align="center"> -280 </td> <td align="center">Reds</td></tr></tbody></table>
Top Teams Away Overs

<table id="sortable_table" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="2"><caption>season=2009 and site = away</caption><thead><tr> <th>Record
W-L (marg, % win)</th> <th>
$ On
</th> <th>
$ Against
</th> <th>RL Record
W-L (marg, % win)</th> <th>
$ On
</th> <th>
$ Against
</th> <th>Over/Under
O-U-P (marg, % over)</th> <th>
$ Over
</th> <th>
$ Under
</th> <th name="query_header">team</th> </tr></thead><tbody> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">14-25 (-0.23, 35.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -875 </td> <td align="center"> 650 </td> <td align="center">17-22 (0.58, 43.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -1225 </td> <td align="center"> 1075 </td> <td align="center">25-13-1 (2.01, 65.8%)</td> <td align="center"> 1070 </td> <td align="center"> -1465 </td> <td align="center">Indians</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">11-23 (-2.38, 32.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -910 </td> <td align="center"> 780 </td> <td align="center">15-19 (-1.06, 44.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -1195 </td> <td align="center"> 1040 </td> <td align="center">21-12-1 (0.60, 63.6%)</td> <td align="center"> 765 </td> <td align="center"> -1160 </td> <td align="center">Orioles</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">26-14 (1.18, 65.0%)</td> <td align="center"> 1475 </td> <td align="center"> -1670 </td> <td align="center">28-11 (1.71, 71.8%)</td> <td align="center"> 1620 </td> <td align="center"> -1755 </td> <td align="center">20-15-4 (0.95, 57.1%)</td> <td align="center"> 450 </td> <td align="center"> -695 </td> <td align="center">Phillies</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">22-19 (0.17, 53.7%)</td> <td align="center"> 740 </td> <td align="center"> -950 </td> <td align="center">24-17 (0.72, 58.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 215 </td> <td align="center"> -400 </td> <td align="center">22-17-2 (1.11, 56.4%)</td> <td align="center"> 325 </td> <td align="center"> -800 </td> <td align="center">Angels</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">14-26 (-0.82, 35.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -525 </td> <td align="center"> 315 </td> <td align="center">22-17 (0.78, 56.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -300 </td> <td align="center"> 110 </td> <td align="center">21-17-1 (0.23, 55.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 340 </td> <td align="center"> -610 </td> <td align="center">Pirates</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">20-18 (0.03, 52.6%)</td> <td align="center"> 460 </td> <td align="center"> -630 </td> <td align="center">25-13 (0.66, 65.8%)</td> <td align="center"> 775 </td> <td align="center"> -955 </td> <td align="center">21-17-0 (1.17, 55.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 265 </td> <td align="center"> -620 </td> <td align="center">Brewers</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">12-26 (-1.84, 31.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -950 </td> <td align="center"> 780 </td> <td align="center">19-19 (-0.66, 50.0%)</td> <td align="center"> -630 </td> <td align="center"> 460 </td> <td align="center">21-17-0 (0.76, 55.3%)</td> <td align="center"> 230 </td> <td align="center"> -590 </td> <td align="center">Padres</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">19-18 (0.49, 51.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -20 </td> <td align="center"> -180 </td> <td align="center">19-18 (0.53, 51.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -340 </td> <td align="center"> 160 </td> <td align="center">18-15-4 (0.24, 54.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 195 </td> <td align="center"> -450 </td> <td align="center">Cardinals</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">22-16 (0.79, 57.9%)</td> <td align="center"> 745 </td> <td align="center"> -995 </td> <td align="center">23-15 (1.18, 60.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 355 </td> <td align="center"> -495 </td> <td align="center">19-17-2 (0.32, 52.8%)</td> <td align="center"> -5 </td> <td align="center"> -360 </td> <td align="center">Dodgers</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">23-20 (0.23, 53.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 10 </td> <td align="center"> -240 </td> <td align="center">24-19 (-0.15, 55.8%)</td> <td align="center"> 545 </td> <td align="center"> -685 </td> <td align="center">21-19-3 (0.47, 52.5%)</td> <td align="center"> 100 </td> <td align="center"> -430 </td> <td align="center">Red Sox</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">16-22 (-0.76, 42.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -420 </td> <td align="center"> 175 </td> <td align="center">20-18 (-0.29, 52.6%)</td> <td align="center"> -245 </td> <td align="center"> 90 </td> <td align="center">18-17-3 (0.59, 51.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -35 </td> <td align="center"> -235 </td> <td align="center">Mets</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#e6e6e6"> <td align="center">17-20 (0.70, 45.9%)</td> <td align="center"> -150 </td> <td align="center"> -25 </td> <td align="center">20-17 (1.31, 54.1%)</td> <td align="center"> -185 </td> <td align="center"> 20 </td> <td align="center">19-18-0 (0.61, 51.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -50 </td> <td align="center"> -370 </td> <td align="center">Blue Jays</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">20-18 (0.68, 52.6%)</td> <td align="center"> 695 </td> <td align="center"> -900 </td> <td align="center">24-14 (1.71, 63.2%)</td> <td align="center"> 685 </td> <td align="center"> -765 </td> <td align="center">19-18-1 (0.53, 51.4%)</td> <td align="center"> -55 </td> <td align="center"> -310 </td> <td align="center">White Sox</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
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Dont know what you are talking about on over unders ....with NYY 36-37 Bos 34-37 Tor 39-39 Tampa 37-40 total 146 over 153 under ????


I would have to agree, not with these Teams.

There are No Alarming Overs here. Maybe Early in the season, but not now.
 

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