I have won a lot of $$ wagering on Lance when He was on his 7 year run. 5.6/1 is a decent wager if you can find it. This guy is an incredible cyclist but He has more than just his age going against him in this year's race.
First and foremost is the fact that in his past victories, He was the team leader and everyone on the team were there to help Lance win the Tour. This year the team leader is Spain's Contador who won in 2007. Secondly his recent crash that broke his Collarbone has limited his conditioning. Third I would list his long layoff and obviously his age. He is 38 but there have been other winners in their thirties and Lance is not just another rider.
In summary I would say that if Lance was the declared team leader and if He had more time to get in top condition.... He would be my pick. However He isn't the chosen team leader and his conditioning for such a grueling race is less than ideal. Therefore I believe He will be a very valuable team asset especially in the Mountains to Contador. However look for the time trial Saturday to tell us if He is in top shape. It's possible that if Contator should fall behind early that the team will rally behind the 7 time Champ. Then Lance will have a chance. 5/1 is not a stupid wager but I will take a pass and see what happens Saturday in the time trial. Lance just recently won the Nevada City Classic on June 22 by sprinting to a easy victory pulling away from the peleton in the last 6 laps and Levi Lepheimer was in that race. It's not the Tour but to say He has no chance ...... He is Lance Armstrong after all !!
:toast:~~:<<
Just a quick update on the Tour first day time trial. So far Levi Lepheimer is the leader. Lance is 10 seconds off the lead which is quite impressive IMHO. Levi is one of the Cyclists that Lance just beat in the Nevada City Classic on June 22. However like I mentioned earlier, his number one problem is that He is not his team's leader and therefore will be expected to assist Contador to a Tour victory unless Contador should falter and fall out of competition.
Good posts Kermit and others. This Astana team is similar to the West, Baylor, Chamberlain Lakers; not enough basketballs. Obviously race within a race (all the major players in Astana know their early scripts). I read about 'some guy in Texas' Armstrong back in his triathlon days. He was a feared athlete a biker and runner. Though I'm not much of an Armstrong fan, I have tons of respect and tons of US pride in him. Age 37 is not old for an endurance event like the tour. Obviously Contador is a strong favorite but Armstrong's comeback is stirring our imaginations (and ringing up TV ratings). Speaking TV, Versus coverage and broadcast is a 'don't miss' event. The Tour ranks among my annual favorite events along with NCAA hoops, NCAA Bases, and some other minor/olympic sports. Versus coverage is just masterful. The coverage, along with the continuous stream of picturesque French countryside/cities is addictive and hypnotic: live coverage daily 8:30 AM and a repeat in the pm -http://www.versus.com/tdf/. Back to the wager, I don't see any angle or leverage betting into shaky variables (pro bike team racing tactics, TV ratings, stimulants -even legal) because they swirl into a Harry Potter magic cloud. Great event to watch but I wouldn't wager. This is Nascar and horses combined with bags of euro money. Stay away unless you are connected inside.
Everything that happened this opening day helped to show the strength of the Astana team. Kloden, Leipheimer, Contador and Armstrong all in the top 10. As for Armstrong's chances, the great performance by Contador actually was not good news if you hold a wager on Lance. The only ticket I bought prior to the start was on Contador and right now I like his chances more and I will stay away from any wagers on Lance as long as Contador stays in form at the top of the Astana team. This race has been very good for me in past years. The Mountains will again decide who wins this race and the strong showing of the Astana team looks like great news for Contador ! GL
Everything that happened this opening day helped to show the strength of the Astana team. Kloden, Leipheimer, Contador and Armstrong all in the top 10. As for Armstrong's chances, the great performance by Contador actually was not good news if you hold a wager on Lance. The only ticket I bought prior to the start was on Contador and right now I like his chances more and I will stay away from any wagers on Lance as long as Contador stays in form at the top of the Astana team. This race has been very good for me in past years. The Mountains will again decide who wins this race and the strong showing of the Astana team looks like great news for Contador ! GL
sharp post kermey the Mtn's seem to determine it every year
Day 2 was pretty much a nothing day as all the leaders simply held their positions. Day 4 will be the team time trials in which I expect a stellar performance from the talent loaded Astana team. Contador should remain in a solid position until they start in the Mountains on day 7 I believe. That will be the first real test and Contador loves the Mountains as does Lance. Anyone see any decent odds on Contador out there ?
Today's race was a shocker ! The race was supposed to be like day 2 with no real changes in the leaders. The course was pretty flat and the only real drama was the sprinters at the end of the race.
Cavendish won the sprint as expected but that is a very small part of what happened. The Peloton split close to the end of the race and only a few managed to stay with the front portion of the Peloton. Lance with his years of experience was right near the front and was able to keep up with the front pack and received the same time as the winner. However the Tour favorite and the leader of the Astana team Contador was caught napping and He never was able to get back with the lead pack.
He lost 40 seconds to the lead group but far more important, He now finds Lance in 3 rd. place and ahead of him in the standings. Why is this important ? Well for one thing, most likely Lance will be wearing the familiar Yellow Jersey tomorrow because the team trials appear to be almost a sure thing for the strong Astana team to run away with a convincing team time trial victory which will propel all the Astana members up the leaderboard. Why is this so important ? I think the Astana team now have to be wondering if perhaps they should be supporting Lance as their team leader. What happened today showed everyone that Lance is not one to fall asleep and Contador certainly didn't look like a leader today !
Long way to go of course but being the team leader is by far the most important factor in winning a Tour and certainly Contador has left the door open. Whether Contador can regain his leadership and the lead in the mountains remains to be seen.The only ticket I hold in my hand is on Contador and after today... I'm a little concerned and wishing I had some of that 5/1 wagers on Lance. We shall see. It should be very interesting from now on as it is plain to see..... Nobody is giving anything to anyone !
GL:toast:
Cavendish won the sprint as expected but that is a very small part of what happened. The Peloton split close to the end of the race and only a few managed to stay with the front portion of the Peloton. Lance with his years of experience was right near the front and was able to keep up with the front pack and received the same time as the winner. However the Tour favorite and the leader of the Astana team Contador was caught napping and He never was able to get back with the lead pack.
He lost 40 seconds to the lead group but far more important, He now finds Lance in 3 rd. place and ahead of him in the standings. Why is this important ? Well for one thing, most likely Lance will be wearing the familiar Yellow Jersey tomorrow because the team trials appear to be almost a sure thing for the strong Astana team to run away with a convincing team time trial victory which will propel all the Astana members up the leaderboard. Why is this so important ? I think the Astana team now have to be wondering if perhaps they should be supporting Lance as their team leader. What happened today showed everyone that Lance is not one to fall asleep and Contador certainly didn't look like a leader today !
Long way to go of course but being the team leader is by far the most important factor in winning a Tour and certainly Contador has left the door open. Whether Contador can regain his leadership and the lead in the mountains remains to be seen.The only ticket I hold in my hand is on Contador and after today... I'm a little concerned and wishing I had some of that 5/1 wagers on Lance. We shall see. It should be very interesting from now on as it is plain to see..... Nobody is giving anything to anyone !
GL
:toast:just fucking amazing. Amazing that a dude that old, old my elite athlete standards, can still compete at that level.
i remember that show that did a special on him about his whole genetic make-up or some shit. And i remember them saying something like his lungs were larger than most and that helped him with this and that. I also remember them talking about some kind of mineral or acid that your body creates or lactates in your muscles when competing and his levels were way different than others or some shit. Basically they were saying he was a freak of nature.
i remember that show that did a special on him about his whole genetic make-up or some shit. And i remember them saying something like his lungs were larger than most and that helped him with this and that. I also remember them talking about some kind of mineral or acid that your body creates or lactates in your muscles when competing and his levels were way different than others or some shit. Basically they were saying he was a freak of nature.
Well, no real surprises today as the strong Astana team won the team time trials as I mentioned yesterday. However a great finish by the Yellow Jersey holder Cancellara denied Lance the coveted yellow Jersey by a fraction of a second. This is really only symbolic however as Cancellara knows and everyone else knows that He has 0 chance to win the Tour. Of the real contenders, the Astana team hold down the number 2.3.4.5 positions on the leader board. I see very little chance that anyone other than a Astana team member will win this tour because the other contenders are over 2 minutes behind all 4 of these great riders. I doubt now that there will be any significant change in the yellow Jersey to happen until perhaps this Friday when the tour takes to the Mountains where all of the Astana leaders excel. Who will take the lead is a tough call. If this was the Lance of 5 years ago...... the answer would be easy. However nothing has really changed as to how his legs will hold up in the grueling mountain climbs. Let's just say that I'm not throwing away my ticket on Contador just yet !:toast:
:toast:Pretty Ho Hum day with no change in the leader board. Frenchman Thomas Voelker won the stage for his first ever stage win. He is best known for taking a huge lead in the 2004 Tour and wearing the yellow jacket for 10 days before Lance took it away on his way to his 6 th straight win. I think Friday will be the day that Lance or Contador take back the yellow Jersey. I predict one of these two will win the Tour and I still feel that Contador will eventually outlast Lance in the high Mountains. Lance used to rule the Mountains with no real challenger but I would be surprised if the younger Contador doesn't pull out the win.
I have won a lot of $$ wagering on Lance when He was on his 7 year run. 5.6/1 is a decent wager if you can find it. This guy is an incredible cyclist but He has more than just his age going against him in this year's race.
First and foremost is the fact that in his past victories, He was the team leader and everyone on the team were there to help Lance win the Tour. This year the team leader is Spain's Contador who won in 2007. Secondly his recent crash that broke his Collarbone has limited his conditioning. Third I would list his long layoff and obviously his age. He is 38 but there have been other winners in their thirties and Lance is not just another rider.
In summary I would say that if Lance was the declared team leader and if He had more time to get in top condition.... He would be my pick. However He isn't the chosen team leader and his conditioning for such a grueling race is less than ideal. Therefore I believe He will be a very valuable team asset especially in the Mountains to Contador. However look for the time trial Saturday to tell us if He is in top shape. It's possible that if Contator should fall behind early that the team will rally behind the 7 time Champ. Then Lance will have a chance. 5/1 is not a stupid wager but I will take a pass and see what happens Saturday in the time trial. Lance just recently won the Nevada City Classic on June 22 by sprinting to a easy victory pulling away from the peleton in the last 6 laps and Levi Lepheimer was in that race. It's not the Tour but to say He has no chance ...... He is Lance Armstrong after all !!
KERMIT- thanks for your input. Looking at these stage 6 matchups, if you had to pick one- which rider would you choose here?
<table bgcolor="#003366" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="580">Cycling - Tour de France - Stage 6 Matchups</td> <td width="20"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Romain Feillu vs Lloyd Mondory</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">101</td> <td width="300">Romain Feillu </td> <td width="65"> -135 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">102</td> <td width="300">Lloyd Mondory </td> <td width="65"> +110 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Jose Rojas Gil vs Leonardo Duque</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">103</td> <td width="300">Jose Rojas Gil </td> <td width="65"> -150 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">104</td> <td width="300">Leonardo Duque </td> <td width="65"> +125 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Kim Kirchen vs Jerome Pineau</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">105</td> <td width="300">Kim Kirchen </td> <td width="65"> -145 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">106</td> <td width="300">Jerome Pineau </td> <td width="65"> +120 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Kenny Van Hummel vs Danilo Napolitano</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">107</td> <td width="300">Kenny Van Hummel </td> <td width="65"> -130 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">108</td> <td width="300">Danilo Napolitano </td> <td width="65"> +105 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Andy Schleck vs Lance Armstrong</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">109</td> <td width="300">Andy Schleck </td> <td width="65"> -120 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">110</td> <td width="300">Lance Armstrong </td> <td width="65"> -105 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Frank Schleck vs Jens Voigt</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">111</td> <td width="300">Frank Schleck </td> <td width="65"> -135 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">112</td> <td width="300">Jens Voigt </td> <td width="65"> +110 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Rigoberto Uran vs David Arroyo</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">113</td> <td width="300">Rigoberto Uran </td> <td width="65"> -140 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">114</td> <td width="300">David Arroyo </td> <td width="65"> +115 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Tom Boonen vs Marc Cavendish</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">115</td> <td width="300">Tom Boonen </td> <td width="65"> -120 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">116</td> <td width="300">Marc Cavendish </td> <td width="65"> -105 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 PM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Roman Krueziger vs Vincenzo Nibali</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">117</td> <td width="300">Roman Krueziger </td> <td width="65"> -135 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">118</td> <td width="300">Vincenzo Nibali </td> <td width="65"> +110 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Vladimir Efimkin vs Vladimir Karpets</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">119</td> <td width="300">Vladimir Efimkin </td> <td width="65"> -165 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">120</td> <td width="300">Vladimir Karpets </td> <td width="65"> +140 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Francesco Pellizotti vs Rinaldo Nocentini</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">121</td> <td width="300">Francesco Pellizotti </td> <td width="65"> -140 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">122</td> <td width="300">Rinaldo Nocentini </td> <td width="65"> +115 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Sandy Casar vs Cyril Dessel</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">123</td> <td width="300">Sandy Casar </td> <td width="65"> -165 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">124</td> <td width="300">Cyril Dessel </td> <td width="65"> +140 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Oscar Freire vs Thor Hushovd</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">125</td> <td width="300">Oscar Freire </td> <td width="65"> -185 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">126</td> <td width="300">Thor Hushovd </td> <td width="65"> +160 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Gerald Ciolek vs Tyler Farrar</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">127</td> <td width="300">Gerald Ciolek </td> <td width="65"> -155 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">128</td> <td width="300">Tyler Farrar </td> <td width="65"> +130 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"> <td valign="top" width="120">7/9/2009 5:50 AM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Yuri Trofimov vs Nicholas Vogondy</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">129</td> <td width="300">Yuri Trofimov </td> <td width="65"> -155 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">130</td> <td width="300">Nicholas Vogondy </td> <td width="65"> +130 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
