The Run Support Theory

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Feb 13, 2007
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In the last month I've been betting team totals based on the pitchers who've gotten the best or worst run support and the pitchers they're facing just to see if it made any difference in the final number and I've been consistently winning big. I'm going to test it out by tracking my plays here. Max 3 plays per day. Lines are based on my local. All unders today.

Todays Plays:

Houston Under 3 -120
Oakland Under 4.5 -115
Pittsburg Under 4 -115
 

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You are treading on dangerous grounds here, falling under the fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc, meaning short term correlation does not mean causation. There have been countless studies with a sample size much greater than one month (i.e. decades) that shows run support is mostly randomness and evens out in the end. Pitcher run support is simply non predictive to exploit, and certainly lacks enough correlation to makes bets simply this one variable.
 

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Buffet I've followed your posts and you really know your handicapping. You problably are right but I think if you pick the right spots this could be profitable. I could really care less if people follow me but I'm just throwing it on here to track it just in case. I loaded up on the Nats under this morning so the day is starting off on a good note.
 

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