I hate to make my frist post a theard starter, but I could not resist. does anyone use what I call "Series betting"? that is when you take 2 or 3 series, and bet on them according to the whole series. that is when you wait untill the thrid day to make a bet. you would make your bet according to who won the last 2 games. so since boston is playing Seattle, and the series is tied 1-1, tomorrow, I will place a bet on Boston, because I feel that Boston is the better team, and have a better chance of winning the series, does anyone else do this?
A good portion of my bets are based on this method, or at least something similar. If a team is over .500 and they lost the first two games of a three-game series, there is a good chance I will be on them in game 3. And if I don't end up playing them, under no circumstances will I bet against them. I don't have any hard data to back up my opinion, but over the years good teams who are trying to avoid a sweep win more than they lose. And I think the numbers are even better if they're playing at home.
As for Boston, they actually lost the first two games of that series. And I agree with you, Boston looks like a great play tomorrow. In fact, I posted in an earlier thread that they will probably be my biggest play of the year to date. There are more reasons than just sweep avoidance, but I won't bore everyone with the details. Unfortunately, we will have to pay because they will be a huge fave.
Actually, Seattle is leading the series 2-0 currently... but I believe misterMJ has a runline chaser system that's somewhat similar to what you're talking about but it seems to be doing well for him so far.. However there are a lot of different factors that would go into that 3rd game such as injuries, pitchers, batting line-up, etc. Not safe to just simply bet on intangibles such as "being the better team" or "backs against the wall" but also try and cap the line value for yourself.
I guess I would agree and disagree with that. Your point about the line is a great point. If it's a ridiculous line, I wouldn't touch it. For instance, if the Yanks lost the first two games of a series against the Nats the line would be so high it would be pointless to bet on them. The Red Sox will be a big fave tomorrow, no doubt, but I'm confident they will win. If they don't, I'll live with it. But I think in bases you have to pick your spots and play the games where you feel like you have an edge, not just bet on games every day because you can.
I'm sure a lot of people will disagree with me, but I'm fairly convinced that the majority of research and number crunching that most people do when it comes to bases is somewhat meaningless. There are so many random things that happen in baseball games you can't cap. You can't cap a manager losing the game for his team by leaving a pitcher in the game too long (Francona today). You can't cap a baserunner making an unbelievably stupid error on the bases to cost his team the game (Morneau last night). You also can't cap when teams are, and aren't, going to give a good effort. As long as the baseball season is, there are a lot of games where teams just don't show up.
I'm not trying to say my methods are anything special or that people should listen to me. I will admit my methods are pretty damn far from being scientific.
There are some great cappers on here who know this sport a helluva lot better than I do. I just think the concept of breaking down games based on the numbers can lead to a lot of frustration in this sport. Trust me, I used to spend hours every night doing it.
So what you're saying is, you want to bet on the third game of a series on a team that is favored to win the series?
There's 3 scenarios.
1) Team A wins the first two games. No play on game 3.
2) Team A wins one of the first two games. You play on them in game 3.
3) Team A loses the first two games. No play on game 3.
Tough to backtrack this, but I'll try.
I don't have historical data on who was favored in series, so I'll just use 3 queries in which the team was favored in at least 2 games of the series, these were likely teams that were series favorites.
Favored game 1 and game 2, lost game 1:
<!--Start Summary--> <!--Start Key Row--><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><th>series game=3 and PP:runs < PPo:runs and PP:line < -105 and P:line < -105</th></tr><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--><tr><td> <table style="width: 835px; height: 16px;" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr> <td>SU:</td> <td>684-523 (0.6 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: -141 / +128</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$2,540 / -$3,765</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -1.5% / -3.0%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
Favored game 1 and game 2, lost game 2:
<!--Start Summary--> <!--Start Key Row--><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><th>series game=3 and P:runs < Po:runs and PP:line < -105 and P:line < -105</th></tr><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--><tr><td> <table style="width: 867px; height: 10px;" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr> <td>SU:</td> <td>603-525 (0.3 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: -142 / +129</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$11,630 / +$5,340</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -7.1% / +4.5%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
Favored game 2 and game 3, lost game 1:
<!--Start Summary--> <!--Start Key Row--><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><th>series game=3 and PP:runs < PPo:runs and line < -105 and P:line < -105</th></tr><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--><tr><td> <table style="width: 869px; height: 5px;" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr> <td>SU:</td> <td>705-523 (0.7 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: -151 / +138</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$6,020 / -$475</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -3.2% / -0.4%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
Favored game 2 and game 3, lost game 2:
<!--Start Summary--> <!--Start Key Row--><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><th>series game=3 and P:runs < Po:runs and line < -105 and P:line < -105</th></tr><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--><tr><td> <table style="width: 869px; height: 11px;" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr> <td>SU:</td> <td>632-480 (0.6 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: -153 / +139</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$8,245 / +$2,050</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -4.9% / +1.8%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
Favored game 1 and game 3, lost game 1:
<hr> <!--Start Summary--> <!--Start Key Row--><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><th>series game=3 and PP:runs < PPo:runs and line < -105 and PP:line < -105</th></tr><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--><tr><td> <table style="width: 870px; height: 19px;" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr> <td>SU:</td> <td>713-494 (0.8 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: -152 / +138</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$1,445 / -$4,810</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -0.8% / -4.0%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
Favored game 1 and game 3, lost game 2:
<hr> <!--Start Summary--> <!--Start Key Row--><table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><th>series game=3 and P:runs < Po:runs and line < -105 and PP:line < -105</th></tr><!--End Key Row--> <!--Start Records Row--><tr><td> <table style="width: 871px; height: 76px;" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="10"><tbody><tr> <td>SU:</td> <td>659-508 (0.6 rpg)</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]average line[/SIZE]: -153 / +139</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]on[/SIZE] / [SIZE=-1]against[/SIZE]: -$9,715 / +$3,115</td> <td>[SIZE=-1]ROI[/SIZE]: -5.5% / +2.7%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
Essentially, doing this historically (since 2004) nets us a 3996-3053 (56.66%) record, but you're down $40,000.
Fading this will net you a profit of $1455.
