Just a helpful article to those who may be newer to our sportsbetting family........
Teaser bets can be a fun way to get some extra action down on football games. Teasers also in some cases can be quite profitable but unless you know how to bet them properly you might as well spend your money on something else, because many teasers have a monster sized house edge. In this article we’ll help you to understand profitable teaser betting.
A teaser is simply an exotic parlay. Parlays reward in bigger payouts, where teasers reward in the form of extra points. The most popular teaser is the 2 team 6 pointer, although, 6.5 and 7 point teasers are also common. The way a 6 point teaser works is as follows: Let’s say this week you like the Jets +8 and the Colts -7, if you bet these games as a single 6 point teaser you’ll get Jets +14 and Colts -1. Just like a parlay both games need to win. These days the standard pricing of a two team 6 point teaser is -110 ($110 to win $100).
In order to determine if a teaser has value or not you’ll need to understand the break even percentages involved.
You should already know that the break even rate betting straight games at -110 is 53%. This is of course no different in a teaser except now you’ll need to go 2 for 2, 53% of the time. However, you’re getting 6 extra points to help you do so.
Doing some simple math you’ll find that each individual bet of the teaser needs to win 72.38% of the time.
Convert that % to a decimal and you’ll find 0.7238×0.7238 = 0.5304 which is equivalent to 53.04%
This means that each leg of the teaser wins 72.38% of the time, then the teaser as a whole will win 53.04% making the bet break even.
Before we get into profitable teaser betting lets look at why a teaser bet is generally a “suckers bet”.
Let’s say that this weekend you really like the Patriots a lot but you’re not sure if they will win by the -6.5.spread. You’ll have two options, you could either bet the Patriots moneyline or you could add them as a leg to a teaser bring the line down to -0.5 (which is virtually the same as the moneyline).
Doing a little research I’ve determined that teasing the Patriots down to -0.5 would be foolish and here is why: I just found the Patriots at -246 at Matchbook. I’ve already determined that the break even % for a single leg of a teaser is 72.38%. What I did next was convert 72.38% win percentage into a money line and found that is came to -262. This means that if I bet the Patriots in a teaser I am giving the sportsbook an extra 16 cents of juice (262 less 246 = 16). It would be a much smarter bet for me to bet the Patriots money line then to bet them in a teaser.
While you might now have the luxury of having the exact math on hand for all teasers I can tell you after much research I’ve already determined that the average teaser has 14-28 cents extra juice built into it. This why generally speaking teaser are “sucker bets”. We would not be spending all this time on match though if there was not a smart way to bet teasers, so let’s get into it. Keep in mind we need to find bets that when given 6 extra point the win probability becomes 72.38% or higher.
There is only one way that is proven historically to produce a win percentage higher than the 72.38% we require. This is teasing games that cross both the 3 and the 7. This is because the most common margins of victory in the NFL (in order) are 3, 7, 4, 10 and 6. By crossing the 3 and the 7 in a teaser we are able to cover the 3 most common margins of victories and 4 of the 5 most common margins of victories.
To cross the 3 and the 7 we need to look for spreads of +1.5 to + 2.5 or -7.5 to -8.5. This will give us spreads of +7.5 to +8.5 and -1.5 to -2.5. Notice how both sets of spreads cross both the 3 and the 7 in full.
Now this is not an absolute method, but if you are going to be making blind bet teasers you have to stick to games that cross the 3 and the 7.
I should also note that this system has only been proven historically profitable in the NFL. In college football handicapping skills are required to determine if a bet crossing both the 3 and the 7 has enough value. If you’re a recreational better with limit to know handicapping knowledge stick only to NFL teasers.
Teaser bets can be a fun way to get some extra action down on football games. Teasers also in some cases can be quite profitable but unless you know how to bet them properly you might as well spend your money on something else, because many teasers have a monster sized house edge. In this article we’ll help you to understand profitable teaser betting.
A teaser is simply an exotic parlay. Parlays reward in bigger payouts, where teasers reward in the form of extra points. The most popular teaser is the 2 team 6 pointer, although, 6.5 and 7 point teasers are also common. The way a 6 point teaser works is as follows: Let’s say this week you like the Jets +8 and the Colts -7, if you bet these games as a single 6 point teaser you’ll get Jets +14 and Colts -1. Just like a parlay both games need to win. These days the standard pricing of a two team 6 point teaser is -110 ($110 to win $100).
In order to determine if a teaser has value or not you’ll need to understand the break even percentages involved.
You should already know that the break even rate betting straight games at -110 is 53%. This is of course no different in a teaser except now you’ll need to go 2 for 2, 53% of the time. However, you’re getting 6 extra points to help you do so.
Doing some simple math you’ll find that each individual bet of the teaser needs to win 72.38% of the time.
Convert that % to a decimal and you’ll find 0.7238×0.7238 = 0.5304 which is equivalent to 53.04%
This means that each leg of the teaser wins 72.38% of the time, then the teaser as a whole will win 53.04% making the bet break even.
Before we get into profitable teaser betting lets look at why a teaser bet is generally a “suckers bet”.
Let’s say that this weekend you really like the Patriots a lot but you’re not sure if they will win by the -6.5.spread. You’ll have two options, you could either bet the Patriots moneyline or you could add them as a leg to a teaser bring the line down to -0.5 (which is virtually the same as the moneyline).
Doing a little research I’ve determined that teasing the Patriots down to -0.5 would be foolish and here is why: I just found the Patriots at -246 at Matchbook. I’ve already determined that the break even % for a single leg of a teaser is 72.38%. What I did next was convert 72.38% win percentage into a money line and found that is came to -262. This means that if I bet the Patriots in a teaser I am giving the sportsbook an extra 16 cents of juice (262 less 246 = 16). It would be a much smarter bet for me to bet the Patriots money line then to bet them in a teaser.
While you might now have the luxury of having the exact math on hand for all teasers I can tell you after much research I’ve already determined that the average teaser has 14-28 cents extra juice built into it. This why generally speaking teaser are “sucker bets”. We would not be spending all this time on match though if there was not a smart way to bet teasers, so let’s get into it. Keep in mind we need to find bets that when given 6 extra point the win probability becomes 72.38% or higher.
There is only one way that is proven historically to produce a win percentage higher than the 72.38% we require. This is teasing games that cross both the 3 and the 7. This is because the most common margins of victory in the NFL (in order) are 3, 7, 4, 10 and 6. By crossing the 3 and the 7 in a teaser we are able to cover the 3 most common margins of victories and 4 of the 5 most common margins of victories.
To cross the 3 and the 7 we need to look for spreads of +1.5 to + 2.5 or -7.5 to -8.5. This will give us spreads of +7.5 to +8.5 and -1.5 to -2.5. Notice how both sets of spreads cross both the 3 and the 7 in full.
Now this is not an absolute method, but if you are going to be making blind bet teasers you have to stick to games that cross the 3 and the 7.
I should also note that this system has only been proven historically profitable in the NFL. In college football handicapping skills are required to determine if a bet crossing both the 3 and the 7 has enough value. If you’re a recreational better with limit to know handicapping knowledge stick only to NFL teasers.
